Escalation of commitment: Why centrists in France should be wary
It’s only a month on, and the election of Emmanuel Macron is still being celebrated in France and around Europe. Le Front National have been repelled again. There’s a new beacon of hope for liberalism; an indication that, against the plights and faults and struggles of this new world’s Brexit and Trump, some semblance of normality remains.
To some extent this is true. But centrists in France and beyond should not rejoice too soon.
In psychology there is a theory called Escalation of Commitment. The idea is similar to the Sunk Cost fallacy: when we put in effort and fail, we’re more likely to try even harder next time. This explains why people who go to a couple of bad music festivals might immediately book a new one upon arriving home: “that wasn’t what I wanted, this next one will be better.”
This theory also plays into politics. It partly explains its cyclical nature- it contributes towards the opposition gaining momentum (alongside other factors). It is of course exacerbated by people who voted for a governing party feeling satisfied enough with the status quo, lacking the motivation that comes with a desire for change.
Escalation of Commitment is a many winged beast. It’s a combination of factors that unite a group, including…
- Proximity. This is how close the previous effort was to achieving its goals
- Identity. The need for action to fulfil some element of a person or group’s identity, particularly powerful in politics
- Consequences. The consequences of not doing it, which would relate to a ruling party staying in power
- Optimism. The dreams and visions that motivate even the daftest of men
Because large scale political activity is often spaced out, this psychological phenomenon tends not to matter. With the French elections, it’s slightly different. The president has been elected and formed his Government, but the French Legislative Elections are yet to take place.
These elections are for the French National Assembly. This group can influence and overthrow Government policy, although its power has been scaled back over the last 30 years.
When ministers are selected in constituencies around France on 11th and 18th June, it is likely that open supporters of Marine Le Pen and her far right group will be more galvanised than ever to drive through their change in power. Escalation of Commitment is likely to be in full force, a fighting factor. It’s unlikely still that they would gain a majority, but they could still make quite a mark on the way the French Government operates.
Escalating Remainer Commitment?
You may be wondering if this effect may be present during the British general election. Despite Tim Farron’s best efforts at leveraging those who wish that big red brexit button had not been pressed, it’s unlikely. Escalation of Commitment requires a strong level of — you guessed it — commitment to begin with. The identity of Le Front National provides that. Sadly the British Lib Dems are likely to muster about as much mobilised commitment as a group of sloths responding to a mating call.
