Fear not the unknown: what leaders need to know about uncertainty
Think back to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Buried among all the politics that surrounded this particular war was the question of preparedness. Many admitted that we didn’t know what to expect as we entered that scenario.
But with vehicles like the heavily plated R31 armoured truck…
How bad could it be?
This war was the first where improvised explosive devices (IEDs) really hit home. About 60% of Americans killed or wounded in Iraq and Afghanistan were victims of IEDs. These were everywhere:
in the ground, in vehicles, in buildings and in suicide vests. More than 3,100 died and 33,000 were wounded, according to data from the Pentagon’s Joint IED Defeat Organization (JIEDDO). These devices proved wickedly effective, even against modern warfare vehicles and armoured trucks.
Had the leaders going into the war known the extent of this threat,
it’s very likely they would have adopted different tactics.
It begs the question:
how on earth can you lead if you don’t know where you’re going?
Let’s apply this predicament to life at work. Businesses face two common scenarios. Firstly there is the difficulty of making decisions with unknown external conditions. As an example, how many business leaders would have bet on both Brexit and Trump two years ago?
And secondly there is the challenge of leading internal change when the final destination is unclear. For instance, we make the decision to overhaul our customer service process and system- but we are unable to say exactly what this will look like in two years time.
Both of these scenarios are situations in which good businesses and strong leaders will engage with their staff, even if they don’t have all the answers. But before we get into what that conversation looks like, let’s explore the damage uncertainty can have.
Why uncertainty hurts aka why do I have GAS?
“Like the cat’s immediate snarl of rage, our body’s resources are mobilised to meet the threat or danger.”
When we are in a normal, predictable situation we are able to coast, functioning on autopilot. We don’t need to use up too much energy with anxiety and stress. But as soon as things become uncertain, we start a high-energy physiological response to make sure we’re prepared. This is our fight or flight response. This process was described by Dr Hans Selye, the so called ‘father of stress’. He called it General Adaptation Syndrome. So how do you know if you’ve got GAS?
There are three stages.
1: Alarm
This is your fight or flight response. Your sympathetic nervous system gets kick-started like an angry cat. Specifically, an angry cat whose tail you’ve just trodden on. Like the cat’s immediate snarl of rage, our body’s resources are mobilised to meet the threat or danger.
2: Resistance
Your body can’t deal with this ongoing alarm. Your parasympathetic nervous system attempts to return many physiological functions to normal levels. Meanwhile your angry feline, resplendent with a kink in its tail, focuses resources against the stressor and remains on alert.
3: Exhaustion
Your angry cat focus cannot be maintained for long. Over time, your body gets worn out- becoming tired and more susceptible to disease.
This is why we deal badly with uncertainty. When we maintain this level of alertness over time, it substantially wears us down. And this can happen without us even being aware of it. Do you think it might explain how you’ve been feeling recently?
A little more conversation, a little less action
Back to business. This is why it’s important for leaders to have open, honest conversations with their people about what the future holds. While it won’t necessarily remove uncertainty, it can do enough to reassure their angry cat for the short term.
This idea was tested in a study in Australia (Bordia et al., 2004), which took a government department that was being restructured and looked at the experiences of the 1283 people involved. They found two important factors in helping people through the change: constant, clear communication and involvement in decision making. These helped increase people’s sense of certainty and control, and reduce the strain they were under.
And so, whether in life, business or war, leaders should talk to their people. Remove as much uncertainty as possible.
Reassure the angry cat.
And stop the GAS.
About the author
Iain is a Business Psychologist working for Mind Gym. He is also currently completing a part-time PhD in Applied Psychology at the University of Nottingham.
