The Psychology of Time in Space

The Third-Quarter Phenomenon

Time. A valuable commodity in the arena of space. Without a consideration of time, it would not be possible to launch a rocket into orbit, sustain life at the International Space Station (ISS), or land a vessel on the moon. Indeed, when we think of ‘time in space’ it is usual for the mind to default to theories of relativity, complex mathematical equations, and the alignment of planets in the solar system. However, there is another function of space-time: A more human function. Since the early studies on the psychology of space travel, researchers have been interested in the phases of change that might occur in human performance and health during prolonged missions beyond Earth’s orbit. Over 30 years ago, Harrison and Connors (1984) reviewed literature on groups in extreme environments and suggested that mood and morale would reach a low point at some stage beyond the half way mark of different missions. This review was to spark an interest into what has since became known as the ‘third quarter phenomenon’ (TQP).

When Robert Bechtel and Amy Berning (1991) initially coined the term the ‘third quarter phenomenon’ the proposition was largely based on anecdotal evidence and reflections from the cold regions study project. According to Bechtel and Berning’s definition, the TQP refers to the idea that individuals and groups undertaking deployments in challenging scenarios are likely to experience a reduction in mood, irritability, tension and decreased morale after the midpoint and into the third phase of a mission. Further, their review of the literature suggested that this phenomenon was not restricted to cold regions, but seemed to be a general characteristic of finite-time stress situations. The third phase change was suggested to be true regardless of the overall length of a mission and is therefore considered to be a more relative than absolute phenomenon. For instance, in separate missions lasting 20 and 200 days we would expect psychological difficulties to present themselves between days 10–15 and days 100–150, respectively. Early evidence for the relative nature of the TQP was provided by Connors et al. (1985) when discussing the results of those undertaking a year-long stay in Antarctica, a short submarine mission, and individuals participating in a 90-day simulation study. The aforementioned studies taught us that what counts, psychologically, seems to be the knowledge that the first half of the stay is finished, and the anticipation that an equally long period of time lies ahead. If no information about the end of the mission is available, the time patterns in psychological reactions might be different.

With respect to missions into deep space, identifying predictable patterns of functioning such as those highlighted in the third-quarter model would be invaluable to mission planners, support personnel, and astronauts themselves. Consider the requirements of a mission to Mars. A small crew of 5 or 6 people living and working together in a capsule habitat travelling millions of miles into the darkness of space. The crew will likely be the first to experience the so-called ‘Earth out of view’ (Kanas, & Manzey, 2008) effect where our home planet is no longer visible. As wonderful as the the overview effect is for promoting a sense of perspective and wellbeing (White, 2007), seeing Earth disappear out of sight is likely to have an equally profound psychological impact on those who experience it. Presently, we know little about the psychological impact of an Earth out of view effect, though it is reasonable to predict that the Earth disappearing from sight would increase the sense of separation and isolation from home. Couple these stressors with restrictions to communication and and an up to 20-minute time delay to interact with mission control back on Earth, and the crew will feel truly alone. In addition to transit stressors, when the crew arrive at Mars (approximately half way through their mission) it is likely that they will separate into two factions. One crew will stay aboard the ship and the other begin to explore the Martian surface. The action of splitting the crew may result in increased tension and lead to a reduction in crew cohesion. Subsequently, incidences of inter-group conflict may emerge as the crew re-unite for the journey back to Earth. Under the conditions faced during a Mars mission, the impact of decrements in mood, and increases in irritability and social tension at different stages could have a considerable impact on mission performance and safety. As such, it is important to understand at what point the psychological experience is likely to change, how that would present itself, and what we can do to mitigate against it.

Information on predictable time-based changes could inform countermeasures aimed at maintaining health and crew cohesion, as well as dictate when resources are allocated and the type of support services made available at different stages of a mission. Although time-based information regarding psychological state changes remains valuable to space agencies, findings from studies to date have been far from unequivocal. In addition, the majority of research conducted so far has taken place in so-called analogue environments. Analogue environments are Earthly contexts in which people are exposed to many of the same stressors as those experienced by astronauts in space such as threats of danger, limited habitability and life support, and long periods of monotony and confinement. Earth-based space analogues typically include Antarctic research stations, polar expeditions, submarine deployments and simulation chambers. Despite best efforts, analogue settings are not an entirely true representation of the space environment especially when it comes to issues of microgravity and radiation. However, various analogues may be useful in capturing different aspects of a human space mission. For example, studies of personnel over-wintering on Antarctica are considered ideal to understand the psychological impacts of isolation and monotony, whereas research on expedition groups in potentially dangerous environments may give valuable information about team decision-making processes. Therefore, when considering findings in relation to space travel, it is important to understand and appreciate the context in which the data were collected. Nevertheless, it is possible to assimilate what we currently know about individual and group reactions to extreme, isolated and confined conditions throughout missions of different lengths, both on Earth and in space.

Over the years there have been numerous systematic attempts to test the third quarter model. One popular group that have demanded a good deal of attention are Antarctic research scientists. In 2000, Sandal found that those stationed at Antarctic research stations reported significant increases in interpersonal tension during the third phase of their expedition. Participants identified issues related to clique formation and loneliness as being a significant contributor to this change. In relation to mood, other researchers have found a similar pattern with a decrease in mood occurring in stages, and at around the mid-point and third-phase of the stay in Antarctica (Palinkas & Houseal, 2000; Palinkas et al., 2000; Stuster et al., 2000). Using both retrospective and prospective designs, Steel (2001) found that individuals stationed in Antarctica experienced a drop in mood during the third phase of their stay providing moderate support for the TQP. More recently, reductions in stress-resilience and coping have been reported by those overwintering at the Concordia station in Antarctica, coinciding with the third phase of the expedition and aligning with the winter-over period (Sandal et al. 2016). Despite the many studies in support of a TQP, there have been exceptions with regards to changes observed at Antarctic stations (Steel & Suedfeld, 1991).

In the context of mobile land-based expeditions, a third quarter effect has been less readily observable. Findings from Kahn and Leon (2000) suggest a peak in interpersonal stress during the third phase of an Antarctic expedition. In a solo sailboat circumnavigation of the globe, Kjaergaard et al., (2013) reported reductions in positive affect but no change in negative affect during the third phase of the expedition. A similar finding related to affect has recently been reported by Smith et al. (2016) when monitoring a small group undertaking a 49-day crossing of the Empty Quarter desert, who also found a reduction in camaraderie and enjoyment of the environment in the third stage of the journey. Despite some support for the TQP, results from mobile expeditions suggest an overall more positive and salutogenic experience with positive emotions tending to be more prominent than corresponding reports of negative emotion (Atlis et al., 2004; Leon et al., 2011). In addition, findings from expedition studies suggest that certain dimensions of stress and mood may be more susceptible to the third-quarter effect than others and it may be that the TQP is likely to be outcome-specific (Decamps & Rosnet, 2005; Palinkas & Houseal, 2000). In attempt to explain such inconsistencies in expedition findings, Sandal et al. (1996) suggested that a stage-model of adaptation is probably more relevant for groups undergoing prolonged confinement in which boredom and monotony are prominent stressors. Thus, time in itself may not be a strong predictor unless taking into consideration aspects of the environment.

Examining time-based changes in psychological functioning has been a central feature of space simulation studies in which individuals are confined for prolonged periods of time. The Mars105 and Mars500 experiments have provided an opportunity to study individual reactions to confinement designed replicate the conditions of a mission to Mars. Although findings from the Mars simulations are less conclusive with regards to changes in mood and a TQP (Basner et al., 2014), evidence related to crew values suggests that the groups start to become less benevolent after the half way point of the simulations (Sandal & Bye, 2015; Sandal et al., 2011) which may relate to interpersonal struggles and reduced group cohesion (Sandal, Vaernes & Ursin, 1995).

To some extent, findings from space are as inconclusive as simulations and expeditions. Work by Grigoriev et al. (1987) and Gushin et al. (1993), suggested that cosmonauts would experience several stages during a 5–6-month mission. The third stage corresponds to the third-quarter in the model proposed by Bechtel and Berning (1991). During this phase, cosmonauts are expected to experience problems including fatigue, drop in motivation, and unstable mood, amongst other changes. Recent work by Stuster (2016) has also provided some evidence for the TQP in space. Analyses of ISS astronaut journal entries suggest a higher proportion of negative to positive entries during the third phase of the mission, somewhat similar to findings reported using the same method with Antarctic scientists (Stuster et al., 2000). However, despite the findings by Stuster, there is a body of work negating the suggestion of a predictable pattern of mood change during spaceflight. Indeed, a monitoring study of an astronaut during a 438-day spaceflight suggested an ‘impressive’ degree of stability in both performance and mood after the first few weeks in space (Manzey et al., 1998). One way of explaining the aforementioned findings is that astronauts and cosmonauts have intensive training to prepare for missions and countermeasures are in place to avoid disruptions that may occur during their time in space. However, as researchers have highlighted (Kanas, 2014) the countermeasures suitable for a missions aboard the ISS may not be effective for long-duration missions into deep-space and the predicted time-based changes may emerge when less support from the ground is available.

The third quarter phenomenon continues to raise many questions. For instance, why should an anticipation be accompanied by discomfort?

In 1936 Hans Seyle created the stress model “General Adaptation Syndrome”, which encompasses an alarm reaction, a stage of resistance, and finally a stage of exhaustion. This model proposes a linear relationship between time and adverse psychological and physiological reactions. There is some evidence to support a linear change in psychological states with decrements in mood and vigour from the beginning to end of time spent in confined environments (Nicolas et al., 2013; 2015; Palinkas et al., 1998). However, contemporary stress researchers have challenged the linearity assumption, emphasizing the importance of the person’s expectancies of having the necessary resources for handling the situation (Levine & Ursin, 1991). One could argue that the longer the mission lasts, the more likely it is for a person to experience a depletion of resources. On the other hand, the closer they are to the end, the more confident they are likely to be regarding their own capacity to fulfill the mission. Accordingly, then, the mid-point and third quarter phase may represent the stage in which people feel least in control. This explanation is appealing and aligns with a considerable body of work related to stress, appraisal and coping in the broader psychological literature. When individuals feel in control and believe they have the resources to influence the situation, they are more likely report better mood, satisfaction and health. Translated into other expeditionary environments, phases where individuals perceive the situation as uncontrollable are more likely to be characterized by psychological disruption.

Knowledge on temporal changes is valuable for developing effective countermeasures for psychological issues. For instance, information about critical phases could be introduced to the crew members as part of pre-mission training. It is well documented that mental preparation often leads to better coping in situation of crises and performing under pressure. Training programs should introduce individually tailored coping strategies that deal with individual and interpersonal challenges associated with the critical phase (i.e., phase 3 in the TQP). In addition, a better understanding of critical periods may enable mission support to implement interventions. For example, during the MIR missions, the mid-point was often when celebrations with nice food and entertainment was planned. These activities were based on the assumption that the midpoint was a difficult time for crew members.

Looking into the future, a key line of research may be understanding the role of moderating variables, including the impact of individual differences (e.g., personality, motivation), work tempo, physical environment and crew size on time-based responses to extreme environments, isolation and confinement. A second area worthy of additional research, is leveraging new technologies that could be used to assess temporal changes in psychological states. It is now possible to automate monitoring, with linguistic analysis (Baykaner et al., 2015), face monitoring (Dinges et al., 2007), and digitised systems (Basner et al., 2015) that could be applied to monitor mood, interpersonal issues, and motivation. Thirdly, an important question related to the nature of the third quarter effect is the patterns of change that will occur during missions with shifting end-points. Currently, it is not known whether predictable patterns of responses would emerge during open-ended mission scenarios. To this end, it may be possible to learn from historic accounts of exploration and ocean voyages. Appropriate case studies may be provided by the records of early expeditions to the Antarctic continent where voyages could span multiple years without a clearly defined end-point. Given interplanetary missions are likely to have a variety of unknowns, there is a good chance that missions will last longer than planned and therefore this issue of shifting end-points and the impact upon psychological responses should be given due consideration.

Departing remarks

In the past, researchers on both sides of the TQP fence have presented evidence to support or negate predictable phases of change. Like many forms of scientific enquiry, the findings related to a third quarter effect are rarely straightforward and clearly defined. Considering the complexity of the human psyche, it may be unrealistic to truly establish the third quarter model as the only temporal pattern to represent changes in performance and health during missions in extreme settings including in space. However, across many research projects, with respect to a diverse array of psychological outcomes, and in various temporal models, the half way stage and third-to-latter phases of a mission seems to be a risk point for disrupted functioning. For space agencies and private companies planning prolonged missions into space, not considering the psychological changes that could occur during this phase would be an oversight. At best, issues occurring during the third quarter could impact upon the enjoyment and overall experience of the mission and at worst could have serious and significant consequences to an individual and the crew.

A version of this article was first published in the Autumn 2017 edition of the ROOM Space Journal.