Experimenting with speculative design to help envision the future of Indonesian MSMEs
In 2022, UN Global Pulse, through Pulse Lab Jakarta (PLJ) and Pulse Lab Finland (PLF), embarked on a foresight journey with the Directorate of MSMEs in the Indonesian Ministry of National Development Planning (Bappenas). The journey began with foresight training for the Bappenas and PLJ teams, which was facilitated by foresight specialists from PLF. At the end of the year, we launched a horizon scanning report on the future of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) in Indonesia that identified five drivers that could have a substantial impact on the futures of Indonesian MSMEs. The primary goal of the launch event was to disseminate the insights to a wide range of stakeholders, particularly policymakers who have a stake in shaping the futures of MSMEs across the archipelago. At the launch, we experimented with speculative design to provide an immersive experience by designing an exhibition that presented the report findings in addition to our presentations and panel session.
Combining speculative design with foresight
We used foresight, specifically the horizon scanning approach, to understand the drivers that can shape the futures of Indonesian MSMEs. Understanding these drivers and how MSMEs could look in the future allows governments and stakeholders to be more anticipatory and to pressure test whether the current policies will hold up against future challenges and scenarios.
Similarly, speculative design is a method of design that explores future scenarios and possibilities. The approach is used to investigate and analyse social, political, technological, and ethical issues and to generate innovative ideas and solutions. In our project, speculative design is used as a means of provocation, combined with foresight to offer prompts to understand the future possibilities for MSMEs in Indonesia. Additionally, the design aspect helps us embody our drivers by visualising futures through more tangible means, what we refer to here as artefacts.
Developing an immersive experience
The first step in our design process was a thorough look at the key drivers that shape the futures of MSMEs in Indonesia. Through horizon scanning, we identified five drivers: climate change, sustainable economic partnerships, emerging sector shifts in consumer preferences, tech and business: new ways of working, and precarious work in the gig economy.
With these drivers as a starting point, we engaged in a series of internal brainstorming sessions and created thought-provoking ideas realised as artefacts “from the future” to stimulate the audience’s thinking about what the futures based on these drivers could look like. The design process was iterative and our team was encouraged to unleash their creativity to materialise the future that we envision.
The results of the ideation process became the main elements of our exhibition. The tangible nature of these artefacts helped bring some of the potential futures into sharper focus, allowing us to better comprehend their potential implications for Indonesian MSMEs. By visualising the possibilities, we hope to be better equipped to recognise our preferred and non-preferred futures, motivating us to take action now to shape the futures that we desire. In addition to the artefacts themselves, we also created a space within the exhibition to engage with the audience and encourage them to share their thoughts. During the design process, we were guided by these principles:
- Provoking thoughts on possible futures through tangible artefacts
By its core function, speculative design is not about predicting the future but about exploring different ways that the future could be, to create spaces for discussion and debate about alternative ways of being, and to inspire and encourage people’s imaginations to flow freely. To ensure that our audience does not get the impression that our artefacts are an exact prediction of the futures, we designed the artefacts to embody many possible futures which include positive, negative and neutral scenarios.
As an example, when we shared our ideas about how climate change affects our food systems, we showed a future in which Indonesian MSMEs are able to deal with the effects of climate change by switching to lab-grown products. In the same instance, we also showed a more negative future where micro businesses are unable to adapt to the carbon emission tax and had to close their businesses.
2. Fitting the local context
While we were guided by the signals produced from the horizon scanning process, there were no clear guidelines on how to translate these signals into tangible products, which presented us with an opportunity to experiment in shaping the look and feel of the artefacts. As most of the people at the event were expected to be from the Indonesian government, Indonesian CSOs, and Indonesian businesses, we thought it was important to set our artefacts in the local context to help people understand them better.
To illustrate the impact of technology on MSMEs, we used an iconic Indonesian street food vendor’s banner to depict the disruption technology causes in their usual way of working, including the challenge of facilitating cryptocurrency payments in a possible future. This approach allows the audience to connect with our main insights by recognising the familiar character of MSMEs in Indonesia.
3. Enabling an interactive experience
Through this exhibition, we want to do more than just help people get into and understand our horizon scanning drivers, we also want to create space for conversations. We wanted to collect perspectives on how our findings helped spark vision and thoughts about the future of MSMEs in Indonesia, how it might look and what we can do about it. However, we were aware that vision is based on individual and subjective experience and it is only natural for our audience to give opinions based on their expertise or working experiences.
To collect broader perspectives and help them see the future of MSMEs from different angles, we assign them random roles such as policymakers, academics, investors, and the MSMEs. Additionally, we were also aware that microenterprises often have different challenges and experiences compared to small and medium enterprises, which is why we also ask our audience for their thoughts based on the size of MSMEs in Indonesia.
What was said?
Upon the culmination of the exhibition, we collated the opinions, thoughts, and queries that were gathered through our interactive installation. Among the various responses we received, it was evident that technological advancements are considered to be the primary driving force that will shape the future of MSMEs. Many also recognized that climate change is a significant factor that will require MSMEs to adapt accordingly. However, concerns were raised about the limited resources available to micro and small businesses to keep up with these changes, which could result in these businesses being left behind.
The consensus among the audience was that stakeholders must work collaboratively to bridge the gap between micro and small-medium enterprises. Structural support, policies, anticipatory measures, government assistance, and access to data and information are necessary to create an inclusive future for MSMEs. These important findings were shared at the main seminar which added to the conversation about how to shape the future of MSMEs in Indonesia.
Foresight and speculative design are powerful tools that can be fused. Foresight gives us the context and structure we need to look at possible future scenarios, while speculative design lets us try out the scenarios to make the future seem more real. When using both foresight and speculative design, audiences are able to imagine and explore possible futures while thinking about possible risks and opportunities. By doing this, they can think ahead about challenges and opportunities and start talking about how to make the future better.
The Futures of MSMEs in Indonesia Strategic Foresight project was conducted by UN Global Pulse and Bappenas. Let us know about your experiences strategic foresight and speculative design in your work! Get in touch with us: plj@un.or.id
Authors: Lia Purnamasari (former Design Researcher) and Aaron Situmorang (Social Systems Lead), with editorial support from Andini Kamayana (Communication Manager).
Pulse Lab Jakarta is grateful for the generous support from the Government of Australia
