Growing the Economy Beyond Earth Orbit
The economy in Earth orbit is booming. Spurred by the development of orbital infrastructure including communications systems, navigation networks, and Earth imaging constellations, it is predicted that the Earth orbit economy will reach $3 trillion in annual expenditures over the next three decades. Small satellites called “Doves,” operated by the company Planet, now image the entire Earth on a daily basis to better than 4 m resolution, feeding our demand for big data. OneWeb and SpaceX are developing competing mega-constellations consisting of thousands of satellites to provide global broadband internet service.
In contrast to the profound growth of the robotic Earth orbit economy, economic development associated with human spaceflight has lagged. A 2018 report from the NASA Office of Inspector General stated that the organization responsible for commercial research on the International Space Station “has underperformed on tasks important to achieving NASA’s goal of building a commercial space economy in low Earth orbit.” The private sector may soon make an impact, as Virgin Galactic plans to send tourists into space within a matter of months.
Lunar business models
While the science and exploration programs of NASA and other government agencies play a role in the space economy, a major economic expansion beyond Earth orbit must be driven by profit motive. Historically, the discovery of precious resources on Earth has led to exploratory investments, infrastructure development, and population migration. The same will likely be the case as humanity expands to encompass the Moon.
In his 2004 article “Mining the Moon,” Apollo astronaut and geologist Dr. Harrison Schmitt advocated for a public-private partnership to mine the isotope helium-3 as fuel for Earth-based nuclear fusion power generation. Helium-3 is an isotope that was found in lunar soil samples during the Apollo program. Schmitt argued that helium-3 can be the energy source needed to eliminate our dependence upon fossil fuels, without producing high-level radioactive byproducts.
Author Andy Weir (widely known for his 2011 novel, The Martian, which became a major motion picture) envisioned a robust economy-driven lunar city in his 2017 thriller, Artemis. In Artemis, the lunar economy is based upon mineral harvesting and manufacturing of materials. Trade and cargo flows freely between Earth and the moon, and tourists provide a thriving service-based industry. Generations spend their lives on the moon, adapted to lunar gravity.
Challenges of engineering and biology
There are many engineering challenges that must be met to extract lunar resources and establish permanent settlements, such as the delivery of countless metric tons of payload to the lunar surface, construction of human habitats and infrastructure, energy production, extraction of propellant and water from lunar resources, and mechanical seals that are robust to the ubiquitous and abrasive lunar dust. These are challenges of scale, not roadblocks that require a technological breakthrough to overcome. We already know the fundamentals of how to do these things.
More problematic are the medical challenges associated with long-term exposure to low gravity: bone loss, muscle atrophy, kidney stones, and intracranial hypertension effects on the eyes and optic nerves. It’s not clear to what extent these potential medical showstoppers are mitigated by the one-sixth of Earth’s gravity that lunar settlers will experience. Long-term exposure to radiation outside of the Earth’s protective magnetic field also poses a major medical risk. For human presence beyond Earth orbit, the challenges of space biology likely exceed those of engineering.
Giant leaps
Purdue’s “150 Years of Giant Leaps” sesquicentennial celebration shines a spotlight on four evolving fields: Space Exploration, Artificial Intelligence, Health & Longevity, and Sustainable Economy & Planet. Together, these fields will drive the advancements needed to settle the moon and grow the economy beyond Earth orbit. I’m convinced that we will achieve a cislunar economy similar to that described by Schmitt and Weir over the next 150 years. All it will take is a few giant leaps.
