Frank Ntilikina: Mysterious Rwandan-Belgian-Frenchman and Knicks Savior
Frank Ntilikina (nee-LEE-kee-na, you’re welcome). The 18 year old question mark. The kid that didn’t work out for a single NBA team prior to the draft. Why? Too busy playing in the Finals on one of the French League’s best teams.
Admittedly, when I sat down and started my research for this article, I knew next to nothing about Ntilikina. However, after spending hours crunching numbers, watching film, and pouring through stat lines, I can say (as definitively someone that isn’t an NBA scout could) Phil Jackson did something smart. That’s right. For once in his role as president of the New York Knicks, Phil Jackson made the right call. Savor it.
As trade rumors swirled on draft night surrounding the possibility of Kristaps Porzingis being shipped off to some other, more functional (see: any) NBA team, Phil Jackson, Mr. Triangle himself, was busy doing just about the only thing he’s proven he can do well; drafting a mysterious, under-scouted foreign player with serious potential. Many pundits acknowledged Ntilikina’s high ceiling, with ESPN having assigned him a 13.9% chance of being an all-star, almost 6% higher than the next best rook in the class, De’Aaron Fox. However, he’s also seen as one of the riskiest choices of the class; ESPN stuck him with a 59.2% chance becoming a bust. For perspective, Harry “I’ve already torn my ACL twice and I’m only 19 years old” Giles, was given only a 49.2% chance of becoming a bust. Rudy Gobert probably said it best with this tweet on draft night:
But Ntilikina is not what he’s made out to be. The kid who went pro at 16 and stayed in school at the time most of these other guys were worrying about their sophomore years in high school? He’s ready. In Frank Ntilikina, the New York Knicks got a safe pick who’s poised to do big things in the NBA. Let’s take a look at why.
The Defense
This is Ntilikina’s biggest strength as a player. He’ll be ready to contribute on this end of the floor the second he steps on an NBA court. He’s got gigantic hands and great size, standing 6' 5", 6’ 6” with an astounding 7' wingspan. He conjures up images of a twiggier Kawhi Leonard (or, if you’re a pessimist, a bigger Ricky Rubio), and his excellent frame provides him with only room for growth. These factors will allow him to be an effective defender of at least three different positions in the NBA. He has been described by DraftExpress as a high-motor and competitive defender. After watching highlights and analysis of his defense, it becomes clear that his tenacity, footwork, positioning, and length allow him to be such a great on-ball defender. He is able to gamble for steals and recover if needed due to his impressive wingspan, he can get steals, fight through screens with ease, and, thanks to his physicality, technique, and lateral quickness, stick to his man like glue. When it comes to off-ball defense, Ntilikina is equally as adept. He hustles all around the court, and, with his long arms and excellent timing, he’s able to intercept passes and block shots like a mad man. He’s able to consistently position himself in passing lanes. He closes out quickly when required to do so. He passes the eye test with flying colors. What’s even better is that the stats back it up.
In all competitions this year, Ntilikina averaged 1.66 steals/36 minutes and .64 blocks/36 minutes as an 18 year old guard. He is described by scouts as a high-IQ defender who stays in front of his man and possesses all the physical tools to dominate his opponents.
When Ntilikina learns to take smart gambles, his steal and block numbers should only increase. The only negative thing to say about his defense is that he doesn’t gamble enough. He is above average in just about every facet of defense, with potential to provide lockdown NBA D even before he hits his prime. Frank’s worst case scenario sees Ntilikina never progressing past his current state. Even at his floor he’d be an asset, a la Iman Shumpert. However, if he can make strides on the offensive end of the court, we could could end up looking at a half Khris Middleton, half Ricky Rubio matchup nightmare.
The Offense
Let’s start with the good. Ntilikina is a guard who stands 6'6" tall. You know who else is a guard who stood 6'6"? Kobe. Who else? MJ. Coincidence? Definitely. All jokes aside, Ntilikina uses his height effectively to provide both scoring and passing from the point guard position. He’s able to shoot over the top of smaller defenders, and is able to see over them as well, helping him to distribute the ball, especially out of the post. The potential of his post game provides optimism that he can develop into a well-rounded offensive machine.
The area of offense where Ntilikina is already finding success is in his three-point marksmanship. As of February 1st, 2017, Ntilikina had taken 158 3s (mostly Euro threes, I may add. The Euro three-point line is a good two feet farther than the one college players see, and is therefore a better indicator of success), which he made at a 42.4 percent clip as well as having made 76.4% of his 72 free throws (often seen as another good indicator of a successful NBA shooter). According to my good friend Dashiell Nusbaum’s calculations for indicating NBA 3 point success (check out his article here), this puts Frank on track to shoot 38.6% from beyond the arc, right around Malik Monk’s projected 38.7%.
If you missed Stephen A. Smith and Max Kellerman make fools of themselves with an uninformed rant about why the Knicks should’ve taken Monk over Ntilikina, watch it here. It’s worth 3 minutes, I promise.
There’s more encouraging news than just numbers for the Strasbourg man’s shot. Former Knicks assistant and current trainer Chris Brickley said that in an intense shooting drill he runs, Kevin Durant usually hits about 80/100 shots. Ntilikina hit 78% his first time through. Sounds like an NBA level shooter to me.
Interestingly, Ntilikina played primarily off the ball for Strasbourg, despite being a point guard by trade. While he gained valuable experience in terms of off-ball defense and catch and shoot offense, his more point guard-y traits leave something to be desired at the moment. He has a tendency to get flustered by on-ball pressure, often unnecessarily picking up his dribble. On top of this, he has a bit of a turnover problem at the moment, which he will need to fix at the next level. He is a good, but not great passer, who should improve as he gains more experience. His passing off the pick and roll is already impressive, and his unselfish nature should translate into good assist numbers in the Association. Overall, when it comes to actually being a point guard, Ntilikina comes up a bit short at the time being. However, with his size, maturity, and decision making ability, he has the potential to receive Lonzo Ball-esque praise for making his teammates better.
Finally, we get to the most important area of Ntilikina’s offensive game. Shot creation and getting to the hoop. If the newest member of the Knicks is going to elevate himself from role player to starter, from starter to All-star, this is where it’s going to happen. There was not a single All-star guard in 2017 who scored less than 20 PPG. Frank Ntilikina averaged just 12 points per 40 minutes this season. YIKES. While Ntilikina is an athletic guy who plays the game with grace and fluidity, he’s not necessarily explosive. While his spot-up shot is already on the money, his efficiency goes way down off the dribble, partially due to some inconsistencies in his lower body mechanics, and partially because he’s not always able to create space due to his lack of explosiveness. This problem also manifests itself in the form of some difficulties around the hoop. Ntilikina shoots only 52% around the rim right now, and attempts a hair under two free throws per 36 minutes. He often shies away from contact and tends to be a bit tentative in many aspects of his offensive game. While this inability to create does raise legitimate concerns about his ability to truly run point in the NBA, his aggressiveness and success should increase around the rim as he gets stronger, and with more focused coaching, he should learn to pull the trigger more often on his impressive jumpshot. Ntilikina has already shown he can in the half-court, and has displayed an ability to change speeds effectively, like Steve Nash did, in getting to the hoop. With a little time, the Frenchman projects as a complete scorer who will also be able to grow into a true point guard role thanks to his maturity and decision making.
Ntilkina is not a complete offensive player yet. However, his off-ball play and unselfish nature proves he can immediately contribute as a shooting guard in a 3 and D role, while also continuing to improve his floor general abilities when needed. In his rookie year, you can expect his numbers to look something like a poor-man’s Patrick Beverly, but if he ever reaches his full potential, his offensive numbers could end up looking more like Jason Kidd.
Character
After drafting Ntilikina, one of the first things Phil Jackson said about the Frenchman was “We like… his ability to incorporate himself in a winning type of situation.” Phil Jackson, all of a sudden, saying kind things about his own players. Weird.
The Zen Master got this one right, though. Ntilikina has experience in one of the best basketball leagues in the world, on a winning team, where he has already gained championship level experience. The young Knicks need this winning mentality at a time when the team is full of inexperienced players who have really only lost at an NBA level. On top of this, Frank Ntilikina works hard. Like, really hard. He flew in from France to New York City in the midst of his team’s battle for the French League’s championship, and immediately got to work at 7 AM.
Those early morning workouts are already translating to improved performance, as his field goal percentage rose from 33.9% in the 2015–16 season to 48.5% in 2016–17. Coming along with this work ethic is Ntilikina’s reputation for being coachable. Even as a point guard, he never complained when he was moved to playing off the ball at Strasbourg. After being drafted by the laughingstock Knicks, Ntilikina had only nice things to say about the organization, Phil Jackson, and even the oft-criticized triangle offense. As Ntilikina enters the NBA, his maturity and respect for teammates will make him an important locker room presence for the struggling Knicks, while on the court his unselfish style will make him fit in to almost any lineup.
Bottom Line
Frank Ntilikina is a low-risk, high-reward player. Already an above average defender and spot shooter, he has all the makings of a 3 and D player like KCP. However, thanks to his outstanding work ethic, effort on defense, physical tools, and basketball IQ, he seems destined to be a fantastic two-way point guard. On the offensive end, distributing the rock, knocking down jumpers, and slashing to the basket off the pick-and-roll, while on defense, taking on the biggest challenges, shutting his opponents down, and creating fast breaks off of steals with those arms that hang to his knees. He fits the triangle offense well and is surrounded by other good young talent like Willy Hernangomez and Kristaps Porzingis. Phil Jackson and the Knicks organization made the right choice in drafting Frank Ntilikina. Now, the onus is on them to not screw him up.
