Modeling the Value of Future Draft Picks Based on Current Winning Percentages (a.k.a. Draft Pick Value Generator)
On February 6th, 2019, the Clippers sent Tobias Harris, Boban Marjanovic, and Mike Scott to the Philadelphia 76ers. In return, the Clippers received Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, and Landry Shamet, as well as the 76ers 2020 1st round pick, the Heat’s 2021 1st round pick, and two future 2nd round picks from Detroit.
In the deal, the Sixers got an All-Star caliber wing and much-needed bench help. Chandler, and Muscala hadn’t been much help on that front. Shamet was shooting well, but just a rookie, it was unclear he’d have any meaningful impact in the playoffs. But what about the picks they shipped off? What was the value of those?
With these questions in mind, I created a model predicting the value of draft picks based on team performance and pick’s year. The model assumes picks are unprotected, and values picks equally across years (for example, the 1st overall pick has the same value in 2019 as it does in 2023. Some teams are win-now, others are win-later, they factor this in. I didn’t). And, in case anyone was wondering, the Clippers got the equivalent of the 7th overall pick in the deal. Not bad.
To use the model, click on the link, do File → Make a Copy, then enter given winning percentage and year.
For anyone interested in a basic explanation of how the generator works:
