The Per-36 MVPs
An Ode to Boban
NBA organizations are usually pretty smart. However, sometimes they will stick younger players with rawer talent on the bench who, based on their numbers, deserve an uptick in minutes. However, sometimes stats lie, so I present this guide to keep you from being deceived.
Who will be next year's breakout player? Who will be the 2017–2018 Tyler Johnson or Larry Nance Jr? Will we see another Dion Waiters, Jamychal Green, another Joe Ingles?
Without further ado, I present the 2017 Per-36 MVP guidebook, breaking down potential hidden talents and determining whether their extrapolated stats are deserving of more minutes, or whether their coaches are actually right to leave them seated on the bench.
Boban Marjanovic
Stats/36: 23.5 PPG/16 RPG/1.5 BLK
Per 36 Comparison: Karl Anthony-Towns
“He’s such a good kid, at some point I had to work to get him to understand that $21 million was different than $3 million,” Popovich said. “I said, ‘Get your ass out of here. Go. You’ve got to do it [sign with the Pistons].’ But he felt bad.”
First things first, we need to talk about Boban’s Hands, which really deserve their own article.
Or the fact that he absolutely dwarfs Stan Van Gundy.
Mostly I just need to inform you of his sheer size, as someone probably should have done to Joel Embiid:
Most importantly, we need to talk about Boban’s numbers because, well, they’re very big (but again, not as big as his hands). The question is: “If Boban is putting up MyPlayer numbers when his statistics are expanded, why is Stan Van Gundy only giving him about 8 minutes a game? Is he scared the uncoordinated 7'3 Boban will end up a perennial Shaqtin a Fool candidate? (The answer to that question is definitely yes.)
However, if we look deeper into his stats, we can see why Van Gundy, and Gregg Popovich before him, were justified in their Boban restrictions. Starting off, Boban shows a complete inability to space the floor, shooting about 38% from outside 3 feet of the basket. Boban also struggles with lateral quickness, as you would expect from a 7'3, 290-pound center, and struggles defensively when forced to move his feet against stretch bigs and strong post players.
All this said, Boban certainly deserves a larger role next season, and will likely receive one with the inevitable departure of Aaron Baynes. Whether he works on his defense this offseason and steps up next year is up to him, but if his numbers are any indication, fans should expect to see a solid offensive spark off the bench, as well as a more frequent appearance on Shaqtin a Fool.
Per 36 Lie Detector: WWE wrestler: The talent is there, but mostly just for entertainment value.
Ivica Zubac
Stats/36: 16.8 PPG/9.4 RPG/2.0 BLK
Per 36 Comparison: Julius Randle
While Boban holds the title of scariest court presence, Ivica Zubac terrifies opponents not only with his villainous surname but also with his talent.
While Zubac holds roughly the same per-36 numbers, his ceiling, and future with the team, is undeniably higher. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar has “expressed interest” in helping Ivica Zubac develop his post game. “He’s equipped to use it well,” Abdul-Jabbar said of Zubac. “He has the length to begin with. If he can develop his shooting touch and agility, he’ll use it well.” Abdul-Jabbar is expected to meet with Magic Johnson in the next couple weeks to discuss a potential role with the franchise, but nevertheless his positive appraisal of Zubac shows positive things to come for the future. General Manager Rob Pelinka has also noted that Zubac is “A pillar of the Lakers rebuild”, so we should expect more from the 20-year-old next season.
In terms of talent, Zubac fits much of the mold of a starting-caliber NBA center (on teams much more talented than the we-can’t-even-get-tanking-right Lakers). Zubac was second among rookies in FG%, and had a strong impact on the defensive side of the floor, also ranking second in blocks among first-year players. While he doesn’t show real potential as an NBA unicorn (due to his inability to shoot from beyond the arc) he definitely fits in as a true two-way player in a starting lineup. Zubac shines when playing in the Pick and Roll, setting strong screens and showing terrific ability to play off of ball handlers (which should only improve once the Lakers draft Lonzo Ball). Once the Lakers realized that tanking didn’t have to include the $64 million dollar man, Zubac showed flashes of potential, including a 25 point double-double performance against Denver in March, before being shut down towards the end of the season with a high-ankle sprain.
Other concerns about Zubac stem from his back-to-the basket playstyle, which doesn’t follow the trajectory of the an NBA big man, which many other young centers are following. Zubac also needs to step up from the line, shooting an unimpressive 65% from the charity stripe. Nevertheless, the Croatian rim protector is certainly ready to step up next season and should have the backing of management, the coaching staff, the fans, and, if we’re being honest, even Timofey Mozgov, in the heightened role he is sure to take on next year. We will just have to make sure his ankle injuries don’t continue to nag him in the future. (Also, it would be dope to have a Zizic vs Zubac finals matchup when the Celtics and Lakers figure it out, or, more likely, when Zubac is traded)
Per 36 Lie Detector: About 2 more years away from matching the numbers
Alan Williams
Stats/36: 17.6 PPG/14.8 RPG/1.7 BLK
Per 36 Comparison: Dwight Howard (Who would I rather have on my team?)
I first discovered Alan Williams when I saw him in 2K and asked myself what this 77 overall guy was doing in the game. However, I can now confirm that Alan Williams is… pretty accurately rated, and not really going anywhere.
The strongest parts of Williams’ game are probably his moves around the basket. He posses a pretty strong jump hook, shows the strength to play through contact, and sets solid screens when his younger teammates, Bender and Chriss, still have to develop those talents before they make the next step.
That being said, Williams has likely almost reached his metaphorical ceiling. Williams’ defensive potential is limited, as the 24 year old stands at only 6'8, and doesn’t show the athleticism or lateral quickness on defense that has become mandatory for other undersized bigs. Furthermore, in pick and roll situations, his predictably benefits NBA defenses, who can leave him alone for the most part, as he almost never dunks (3 total dunks this season). Williams also lacks any strong post moves outside of his jump hook. It is even more concerning that Williams didn’t really have any breakout games during the season, topping out with a 17 point effort.
On the surface, the Suns would benefit from reducing the aging Chandlers minutes to make way for the youthful Williams. However, the Suns front-office should continue its trend towards Bender and Chriss as their raw frontcourt centerpieces, and look to give Williams a similar role next season as a solid player off the bench.
Per 36 Lie Detector: Somewhere between a D Rose superteam and a KD tweet.
Dejounte Murray
Stats/36:14.5 PPG/5.4 APG/0.9 STL
Per 36 Comparison: Darren Collison
Dejounte Murray took a similar role to the one Boban did last season, riding the bench under Gregg Popovich, playing 38 games during the regular season, and 11 more in the playoffs following Tony Parker’s injury. Despite his small sample size, he showed why the Spurs shouldn’t be too reluctant to let Patty Mills walk in free agency if another team’s offer is more lucrative than one the Spurs would like to match. Despite not having many opportunities, Murray shone once given time on the court, including a 24 point effort in January.
Murray also showed potential as a multifaceted scorer, possessing a crafty skill set at the rim, to go along with his effective floater and flashes of shot-making ability off the dribble. Spurs fans should also be excited to hear that complementing his impressive inside game was a superb outside one as well, Murray shot almost 40% from deep as a rookie. Dejounte Murray mainly needs to work on his playmaking, averaging about 1.3 assists and 1 turnover a game, though that should improve with a strong offseason and more regular minutes next year.
Murray also posses fantastic defensive potential, despite a smaller frame that earned him the nickname “Baby Boy.” He averaged roughly 1 steal per 36 minutes this season, and his lanky wingspan of 7'0 should help develop him to a position where he can defend both guard positions on the floor. This, along with the defensive advantage of having Pop as a coach and Kawhi as a teammate, should lead Murray to be successful on the defensive side of the floor, so long as he continues to develop his defensive fundamentals.
My biggest concern really about Murray is his 1.0 ttmntt/36 (trash Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtle tattoos/per 36), but I think that Pop will probably work on that with him in the offseason too. (Please)
Per 36 Lie Detector:
Lucas Nogueira:
Stats/36: 8.4 PPG/8.0 RPG/3.0 BLK
Per 36 Comparison: Rudy Gobert
Lucas Nogueira is really, really, really good at blocking things.
Some dope examples:
Nogueira blocked 7.2 percent of opponent 2-point field goals while on the floor, second only to Joel Embiid among players with 500 minutes played (and even better than former teammate Biyombo’s mark the year prior). That is good.
Opponents shot just 47.9 percent at the rim when Nogueira was defending and that is good.
Nogueria was in the top-20 in providing value outside of points. This isn’t even a per minute stat so that is also very good.
Almost every metric suggests that Nogueira was a valuable piece for a long stretch of the season, helping confirm what the eye-test showed for most of the year (and that Casey himself confirmed by closing games with Nogueira quite often when he was still in the rotation).
For much of January and February, Nogueira played in 20 minutes or more per game — peaking with a 42-minute appearance in a loss to the Bulls — such were the Raps’ options at the time. However, after February 14th, the minutes dip, approach zero, and never quite recover. Nogueira played in 57 games for the Raptors this past season, even starting in six of them, but only 10 came after Valentine’s Day.
However, without a doubt the most compelling part of Nogueira’s game is his passing ability. Alongside his ability to finish alley-oops at a high rate, his long reach which makes blocking shots almost a given, his talent for moving the ball is something special. For a Raptors team now backed by two big men who lack in vision (Jonas and Serge), having a center who looks to pass more often than not (sometimes too much!) who can make good reads out of the pick-and-roll to find open shooters in the corners is a luxury.
Once Nogueira improves his basketball IQ, and gets more minutes off the bench, we could see him play a very valuable role off the bench for a playoff team, no matter where it is (But I really hope it is in Boston. Danny Ainge please get it done. Just look at that hair in a Celtics hat. Please.)
Per 36 Lie Detector: One straight line. Bring this man to Boston.
Willy Hernangomez
Stats/36:16.0 PPG/1.0 BLK/9.0 RPG
Per 36 Comparison: Steven Adams
A poem I wrote as ode to Hernangomez:
There’s this dude Joakim Noah, who no longer plays defense, yet Phil Jackson still chose to pay him at too high an expense
Willy is a beast on the board: he has many 10+rebound games
He’s strong on the offensive glass (so pay attention teammates of King James)
Low-post scoring, spins to the basket, pump fakes, and a decent hook shot
He can also pass the rock well, so Melo will like that a lot
He fits well with Porzingis cuz it’s really hard not too
They work well on offense, and space the floor well as a crew
I just wrote the poem cuz it was quick and kinda fun
At least it was more well thought-out than anything from P. Jack-son
Fin.
Per 36 Lie Detector: Phil Jackson will find a way to screw this up.
