What Will The NBA Look Like in 5 Years?
In a span of five years, the entire landscape of the NBA can change. Five years ago, LeBron James’ Miami Heat were atop the NBA. The Warriors were a lottery team. In just five years, teams can go through the entire rebuilding process. Players can go from being potential stars to bonafide superstars. They can also change from stars to washed up players with outrageously large contracts (AKA members of the Knicks). Take a look into my crystal ball as I reveal who’ll top of the NBA ranks five years from now.
Tier One:
This tier is one of championship contenders.
Golden State Warriors:
PG: Stephen Curry
SG: Klay Thompson
SF: Kevin Durant
PF: Draymond Green
C: Jordan Bell
Role Players: McCaw, Looney, Jones
The Warriors earn this ranking despite the fact that, five years from now, their core four will be between 31 and 33 years old. Their team is comprised of some of the best players in the NBA, all of whom should age better than one might expect of the average player. The Warriors may not be title favorites, but with playoff experience in their big four, and young talent in McCaw, Looney, and Bell, they still have enough depth to seriously challenge any team five years down the road.
Milwaukee Bucks:
PG: Malcolm Brogdon
SG: Khris Middleton
SF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
PF: Jabari Parker
C: Thon Maker
Role Players: Dellavedova, Snell
Team Giannis is for real. Antetokounmpo is surrounded with a plethora of talent built for the future of the NBA. With young 3-and-D players like Brogdon, Middleton, and Tony Snell, the Bucks’ insanely athletic and incredibly stingy defense should only get better. Outside of Giannis, Milwaukee needs more playmaking, which they could eventually obtain from Jabari Parker. This is a very well rounded team that could very well be hoisting up the Larry O’Brien trophy in 2022.
Sidenote: If Thon Maker manages to approach (or reach) his full potential, the Bucks will be just that much closer to locks for championship contention; however, there remains the very real possibility Thon becomes a bust.
Philadelphia 76ers:
PG: Markelle Fultz
SG: Nik Stauskas
SF: Ben Simmons
PF: Dario Šarić
C: Joel Embiid
Role Players: Okafor, Covington, Luwawu-Cabarrot
Unless you’ve been living under a rock, you know that Sam Hinkie, former general manager of the 76ers, did nothing short of revolutionizing front-office strategy by trading away almost his entire team team in exchange for picks and young assets, in order to help create a superteam in the future. Unfortunately, Hinkie is no longer the 76ers GM, but his process, and the players it birthed remain. A frontcourt of Simmons and Embiid would work perfectly, but Šarić is simply too good not to plug into the starting lineup. Many want the Sixers to trade Okafor, but they have close to no leverage for dealing him, considering teams recognize the stockpile of bigs they have and the direction the league is heading in. However, the Okafor situation isn’t all bad. When the 76ers are eventually contenders, Okafor could have an Enes Kanter type of role off the bench. He certainly isn’t going to be what he many projected him to be coming into the league, but he will provide them surefire scoring off the bench, and that’s all this superteam needs.
Minnesota Timberwolves:
PG: Jeff Teague
SG: Jimmy Butler
SF: Andrew Wiggins
PF: Gorgui Dieng
C: Karl-Anthony Towns
Role Players: Jones, Muhammad
As of July 6th, 2017, the T-Wolves have traded Ricky Rubio to the Jazz for a 2018 first and have signed Jeff Teague. In five years, they’d have a 32-year-old Butler and 34-year-old Teague (assuming both re-sign), causing the Wolves to have two players whose careers would be on the downswing. However, having both 27-year-old Andrew Wiggins and 26-year-old Karl-Anthony Towns should vault them into the conversation of serious contenders. Towns is part of the NBA’s new “unicorn” movement, and Wiggins is a scoring machine. The only issue with this team — it’s very top heavy. If the T-Wolves front office can make some savvy moves to shore up their bench, they could be seriously set as a legitimate dynasty.
Tier Two:
Tier two contains the teams that should land anywhere between the third and fifth seed in their respective conferences.
Sacramento Kings:
PG: De’Aaron Fox
SG: Buddy Hield
SF: Justin Jackson
PF: Skal Labissière
C: Willie Cauley-Stein
Role Players: Papagiannis, Mason, Richardson, Giles
This past draft should provide some long-overdue hope for Kings fans. They made many positive moves, and have a very talented young team. De’Aaron Fox has the potential to be something really special. In Fox many see a John Wall-esque player. Fox is an athlete with top-tier speed and excellent court vision. Hield is a deadeye shooter. Justin Jackson is an extremely hard worker who should develop into a quality three and D player. One issue the Kings have is that their big-man situation remains a bit unclear. Cauley-Stein and Labissière are both incredibly talented, but they play the same position. Papagiannis has potential. It seems Sacramento will have a hard time developing all of them at once. What puts Sac-town in tier two, and not tier one is the health of Harry Giles. If he develops well, they could be a borderline contender for the title, but without noticeable improvement out of the 20th pick, they’re sure to find themselves in the three to five seeded region.
Editor’s note: If Papagiannis is as good as papa Papagiannis thinks he is, we’re in for one wild ride.
Boston Celtics:
PG: Isaiah Thomas
SG: Gordon Hayward
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Jae Crowder
C: Ante Žižić
Role Players: Bradley, Brown, Smart, Rozier, Smart, Yabusele
When I first wrote this, I’d drafted an entire section bashing Danny Ainge’s inability to sign a single star. Then, he goes out and signs Gordon Hayward. Granted, in 2022, Hayward will be 32 years old, slightly changing the complexion of this team. Bradley likely becomes a bench player, and the Celtics could potentially lose him in free agency. They have and will continue to have a massive logjam at the guard spots. Even if IT4 doesn’t age well, Boston will still have Hayward, Smart, Bradley, Rozier to fight it out for the 1 and 2 positions. Having a logjam isn’t all a bad thing, it means competition for the position, and in five years they are bound to have found their best guy. Boston has lots of young talent and future draft picks that they are destined to be at the very least the three seed or higher, but without a legitimate superstar (yet) I can’t put them in the top tier.
Portland Trail Blazers:
PG: Damian Lillard
SG: C.J. McCollum
SF: Maurice Harkless
PF: Noah Vonleh
C: Zach Collins
Role Players: Swanigan, Nurkic, Crabbe
This Portland Team has loads of potential at all positions. They have a legitimate superstar in Damian Lillard, and a star second scoring option in C.J. McCollum. However, these two are going to need a strong defense behind them if they want to become serious contenders. Harkless, Vonleh, and Collins would all be great fits behind the secondary splash bros; However, offensively, this lineup wouldn’t give them much spacing. That’s where Crabbe and Swanigan come in. Caleb Swanigan shot 44.7% from three and 78.1% from the charity stripe. Using a metric that projects three-point percentage for college basketball player based on historical data and college stats, Swanigan should have around a 38.9% three-point percentage. Swanigan also showcased his ferocious rebounding ability at Purdue, pulling down 12.5 rebounds per game in his last season for the Boilermakers. Allen Crabbe is already a proven commodity who has shown steady improvement each year in the league. He is a knockdown shooter who can play both the 2 and the 3 positions; He shot 44.1% from deep last year, and play completely adequate defense. In the 2017–2018 season, they won’t be challenging for anything other than a low playoff seed, but in five years they could be very close to serious championship contenders, if not quite there.
Los Angeles Lakers:
PG: Lonzo Ball
SG: Jordan Clarkson
SF: Brandon Ingram
PF: Julius Randle
C: Ivica Zubac
Role Players: Nance Jr.
This Lakers projection is banking on them scoring big in free agency some time in the near future. While their current team is young and definitely possesses loads of talent, it also is one that lacks direction. Is this team waiting for a big free agent signing in 2018, or are they building for 2022? As of right now, the Lakers lack floor spacers and rebounding. They have an interesting young team and tons of cap space, but they can’t be considered a potential dynasty until they have a single direction.
Phoenix Suns:
PG: Eric Bledsoe
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Josh Jackson
PF: Marquess Chriss
C: Dragan Bender
Role Players: Knight, Warren, Len
A great young team with loads of potential. The Suns have all the makings of a future dynasty, with so many talented second options and one offensive leader. Devin Booker has been likened to Kobe Bryant ever since his 70 point game, and has backed it up, having 14 games the 2016–2017 season of 30+ point outbursts. He needs to better his efficiency a bit, but things are looking up for the young gun. If Booker becomes even 2/3 the player Kobe was, this team is sure to be title contender. But one player isn’t enough. Every star needs a strong supporting cast, and he certainly has one. Josh Jackson is a athletic, defensive wing who should take the toughest assignments on defense, giving Booker a break. If Jackson manages to develop his shooting and continues to improve upon his already exceptional finishing around the basket, the two could form a lethal partnership. Eric Bledsoe also is a very talented defender, who has made great improvements offensively. Granted, Bledsoe will be 32 years old (and maybe not even on the Suns) in 2020, but he should be a serviceable veteran to have on the team. Marquese Chriss struggled in his first year in the NBA, but there will always be a place in this league for bigs who can shoot, and it seems likely that is what he’ll develop into. Similarly to Chriss, Dragan Bender struggled in his first year, shooting 27.7% from three. Their only other option is Alex Len,who thus far has proved to be a perpetually average backup center. If any of these players can fulfill their NBA potential, then this team could realistically compete for an NBA championship, but there are too many “ifs” on this team to realistically be put in the first tier, and as of right now they are not close to the level they need to be at.
Tier Three:
This is the tier of teams that have, for one reason or another, the ability to jump into one of the top two tiers, even if it seems unlikely. Whether it be a coach, GM, or star player, each of these teams had to make the list.
New York Knicks:
James Dolan will always ruin the Knicks hopes of being a successful franchise. With that fact out of the way, take a moment. Imagine a world where the Knicks are playoff contenders. Where Kristaps Porzingis has a good supporting cast. Where Frank Ntilikina proves all of New York wrong. Where Stephen A. Smith is happy. Unfortunately for fans, this doesn’t seem to be the reality for the Knicks’ future. Poor decisions in the past have put the Knicks in a hole that, while not impossible to get out of, is at the very least improbable. If they want to compete, they’ll need to do just about everything right, which will take quality moves to cut cost and the willingness to suck for a few years.
San Antonio Spurs:
Generally, betting against Pop and the Spurs is a bad idea. An argument could be made the Spurs will always be a top tier team. But this past year, they showed an over reliance on Kawhi Leonard and dismissiveness of other young players which doesn’t bode well for their future. In five years, Leonard will be 31. If (or maybe, when) Pop can come up with another superstar with a middle-to-late first round pick, the Spurs could be vaulted into contention, but as of right now, it seems there‘s little to no chance (But hold out hope for Dejounte Murray).
New Orleans Pelicans:
Up until very recently, the Pelicans front office had consistently failed to surround Anthony Davis with comparable talent. However, the current “Big Three” of Davis, Demarcus Cousins, and Jrue Holiday could be able to do big things in a few years. It’ll be interesting to see if the Cousins-Davis combo will actually work in the modern NBA. They are both match up nightmares offensively, but transition defense could be an issue if two of their big three aren’t hustling back. In five years, Cousins will be 31, Holiday will be 32, and Davis will be 29. If the Pelicans’ front office can surround these players with quality three and D guys, they could realistically be a high tier two team.
Cleveland Cavaliers:
LeBron and Kyrie. Will they age well? It’s never smart to doubt Lebron, but his minutes and physical exertion seem to push the boundaries of human athleticism, and we are left to wonder just how much longer he can go. Will Kyrie manage to maintain his performance, even as he begins to take on a larger role? If they continue to perform well with time, and the Cavs add an athletic scoring wing, they could be right in the thick of things, just as Lebron’s teams have been for the better part of the last decade.
