The Comey Hearing: What to Watch For
For the first time since being fired by the President, former FBI Director James Comey will speak in public. Comey’s appearance before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence comes as part of their investigation of Russia’s involvement in the 2016 elections. All eyes in Washington will be focused on Comey and the committee.
If the Trump presidency ends in impeachment or resignation, the Comey hearing feels like a moment history will look back upon as the starting point of his downfall. Opponents of the President will be looking for exactly those types of moments. Supporters will look for opportunities to limit the damage. Here’s what you should watch for.
From James Comey
Do not expect Comey to give insight on the investigation’s focus or findings — he will not want to be seen as influencing the investigation. Instead, look for Comey to make news through revelations about his interaction with the President and his staff. Here are the three ways Comey makes news:
1. He confirms what we’ve already read in the press about the President’s requests of him.
2. He expresses his opinion about the President’s intentions in their meetings.
3. He reveals interactions with the President or staff that have not previously been reported.
From Committee Democrats
The job for Senate Democrats is pretty straightforward. Their political needs (be tough on Donald Trump) match their professional obligations (determine if the President has acted inappropriately or illegally in firing the FBI Director). They will look to give Comey opportunities to make news — expect them to ask questions letting him confirm press reports about the President’s actions and express his opinion on Trump’s motives.
They will also act as investigators, looking for evidence that other members of the administration were involved, with an eye towards undermining arguments that a novice president was acting alone without harmful intent.
There are two important things to watch on the Democratic side.
1. How does Senator Manchin handle the hearing?
Manchin is new to the Intel committee and represents conservative West Virginia. Will he join his Democratic colleagues in aggressively pursuing the President’s behavior? Or will he stay under the radar and avoid being part of the story?
Manchin’s actions could be a good indicator of how boldly other Senate Democrats from Trump states will handle the Russia investigation.
2. How does Mark Warner, the Vice Chairman, interact with Chairman Burr?
In his time in the Senate, Mark Warner has developed a reputation as being able to build solid working relationships with Republicans. On the other hand, he has told Democratic colleagues he believes the Russia investigation will be one of the most consequential events of his career.
If he believes Chairman Burr is committed to a serious investigation and is collaborating in a bipartisan fashion, he will be friendly and cooperative with the chair. If he spends the hearing countering Burr or pushing back on the chairman, it likely indicates that he is skeptical of Burr’s commitment.
From Committee Republicans
The hearing is a much sticker situation for Republicans than for Democrats — how do they handle the politics of investigating the leader of their party. They will likely break into three camps: the Posturers, the Dodgers, and the Defenders.
The Posturers
As of yet unwilling to vote against Donald Trump and anger his base, these Senators use highly visible events like this hearing to challenge the Trump administration while avoiding truly damaging the President. If Trump’s popularity continues to slip, they will reference their tough stance as signs of their independence. If he regains momentum, they can let these moments slip away into history.
Members:
Susan Collins — a moderate from Maine who gets elected on the votes of independents and NeverTrump Republicans. If she were up for election this cycle, her seat would be the top target for Democrats. She needs to create some separation from Trump to survive in 2020. In the lead up to this hearing, she is emphasizing that she wants to hear Comey’s side, but is she willing to actually push into topics dangerous to Trump?
Marco Rubio — A former Republican presidential favorite who lost in the primaries to Trump, Rubio was instead reelected to the Senate in 2016. He’s focused more on the 2020 presidential election than his own race in 2022 — hoping to position himself should Trump self destruct. At Secretary of State Tillerson’s confirmation hearing, Rubio was one of the most aggressive questioners on either side of the dais. But when it came time to vote, Rubio backed down and supported the Trump nominee.
The Dodgers
Smart, conservative Senators who want to use the Trump presidency to push conservative priorities through Congress. They would be aggressive questioners if a Democrat were president. However, since Donald Trump holds the position and is popular in their states, these senators will look for lines of questioning that allow them to appear serious while making sure they don’t hear anything that deeply troubles them (at least publicly.)
Members:
Roy Blunt — from Missouri, where Donald Trump won by 19 points. Blunt supported Trump in 2016 and rode his coattails to reelection. Since the election, he has done a good job of avoiding most of Trump’s controversies and has highlighted that they distract from the Trump agenda.
James Lankford — Trump won Oklahoma by 36 points and Lankford eased to victory against nominal opposition. So far, he has focused on the process of the Committee’s Russia investigation and has little incentive back home to engage Trump aggressively.
The Defenders
They will serve as the first line of defense for Trump. The defenders will seek to change the subject, muddy the waters by comparing Trump’s actions to other presidents, and push back on Comey wherever they see an opening. Expect them to challenge his recollection of events and interpretations of Trump’s motives.
John Cornyn — a senior member from Texas and an initial candidate to replace Comey at the FBI. Last month, in a Judiciary Committee hearing on Russia’s interference in the 2016 election, Cornyn tried to change the subject. He used his questions to challenge Sally Yates on her refusal to defend the Trump administration’s travel ban.
James Risch — from Idaho and one of Trump’s staunchest defenders on the Hill. Following Trump’s disclosure of classified information to the Russian foreign minister, Risch hit the cable news circuit. He defended Trump’s actions as proper and tried to refocus attention on the person he called a “traitor” for leaking Trump’s disclosure to the press.
Tom Cotton — a rising conservative star from Arkansas, Cotton has closed ranks behind Trump. He has defended Trump’s actions on Russia and, when asked about the subject, generally tries to redirect to what he considers President Obama’s failures on confronting Putin.
From Chairman Burr
Finally, keep a close eye on Chairman Richard Burr. Currently, Burr is in charge of the most significant Russia investigation on Capitol Hill — but one that occurs almost entirely behind closed doors. This open hearing is a rare opportunity to determine Burr’s commitment to putting his responsibility as chairman over the political interest of his party. Pay attention to how he follows up on senators’ questions — does he further pursue difficult lines of questioning or simply move onto the next senator? Also watch his relationship with Vice Chairman Warner for signals of bipartisanship.
Does the Ground Shift?
This hearing is shaping up to be classic Washington theater and the stakes are very high. If any of the Posturers, Dodgers, or Defenders acts unexpectedly, it could mean the ground is shifting. Otherwise, expect the partisan battle lines to remain as currently drawn.
Scott Payne is the Executive Director of 4D PAC, a progressive national security political action committee. He previously managed national security issues for former Senator Barbara Mikulski.
You can learn more about 4D PAC and help us fight Donald Trump’s dangerous national security policies here. www.4dpac.com
