Who Is Most Likely To Win?
A Game Theory Challenge: Not What You Think!
Tom, Bill and Mark are in a duel. They each draw lots to decide their opponent and shoot them until one survives. Tom and Bill have a 100% hit rate. Mark only has a 50% hit rate.
Who has the greatest odds of surviving? 🔥
For clarity, drawing lots determines who gets to shoot first!
So if Tom shoots first and kills Bill, then it’s Mark’s turn to shoot Tom.
Or if Mark shoots first and kills Tom, then it’s Bill’s turn to shoot Mark.
I recommend you pause the article, grab your pen and paper, and give this a go. When you are ready, keep reading for the solution! ✒️
Solution
We will analyze this problem carefully. Intuitively, we might think both Tom and Bill have greater odds of surviving.
Yet, Mark is the one who has the greatest odds of coming out on top as he is 2 times more likely to survive compared to Tom and Bill.
