How to become a Super Predictor; System 1 vs System 2 thinking
Philip Fletcher | Director & Co-Founder
There is no out of the box solution to improving people’s forecasting ability. Unfortunately, we can’t give you a booklet that explains how to do forecast more effectively, you go away to trade the market and subsequently retire next year!
What we can do though is start with a simple test. This test is designed to send you down the correct road with the goal of improving your forecasting ability within Pynk and within your wider personal and business life.
The ability to forecast is as much an art as a science. We’ve seen tens of thousands of predictions from our incredible crowd and have discovered many interesting patterns displayed consistently throughout.
We see many different types of forecasters. From the researched and well rounded; to the purely instinctive. What is amazing is that both types can be very effective. Some people have a natural market feel, they can sense how the market is acting and use pure intuition to predict its next movements. Others are deeply methodical in their forecasts, looking for historical patterns and strong technical to point towards a potential movement.
These two types of forecasters we see represent the extremes on a spectrum. They show the two psychological worlds which most people operate within: System 1 & System 2.
For ease, consider these as follows:
System 1 — Your sub-conscious, gut feel
System 2 — Your conscious reasoned approach
Essentially the differences are what have been eluded to so far — users are either forecasting based on instinct or reason… System 1 or System 2.
I imagine you will know where you sit between those two types of thinking. I personally sit within System 2, while many of the Pynk team prefer the instinctive feel of System 1. It’s important to understand that neither is right or wrong; but how can you improve?
What we have found through our tracking analytics is that many users who are performing below average relative to their peers, are showing indications of a System 1 approach. They tend to be forecasting on gut market feel rather than a research-based forecast.
We can see many commonalities between those who are instinctive forecasters in both the performance of their 24 hour Bitcoin predictions and their long term forecasting ability (following our recent addition to the Beta price prediction tool of long term forecast questions).
So what is interesting about that is it suggests that many of our users display common approaches to these problems and therefore many could benefit from understanding their approach, adapting, and implementing a more effective results based one.
POINTS MEANS PRIZES
In order for you to improve your gains within our system, I recommend you should try something rather unique through the month of September… switch Systems!
If you currently work as a System 1 user, using that instinctive feel, test out that research-based System 2 approach…
If you currently work as a System 2 user, using research… try out the gut intuition of System 1!
ROSE will be tracking how users change their approach, and logging them for additional Wisdom Point (WP) rewards as they conduct this trial for us. We believe that not only will your accuracy go up, your overall forecasting ability will see a strong improvement as you are better able to read situations using a previously untapped and new type of psychological approach . Think of all that additional brain power you’ve been missing out on!
THE PYNK SUPER PREDICTOR CLUB
Each month Pynk’s proprietary artificial intelligence (ROSE) selects the top predictors from thousands of data points and grants access to a very exclusive club.
Many congratulations to those who receive a special email from ROSE A.I and earn an extra 30.000 Wisdom Points. Super Predictors are the very best of the Pynk Crowd. Whether they are System 1 or System 2 thinkers — their data is making the biggest contribution to ROSE’s forecasting ability. Keep doing what you’re doing to earn more Wisdom Points and maintain your Super-Predictor status!
I hope this article helps you to think about new ways to make predictions and forecasts. If you have any additional thoughts on this subject, I’d love to hear your comments below or in our Telegram group.
Good luck to all of our Pynksters and have fun!
PF
Disclaimer: Please bear in mind that this information does not constitute any form of advice or recommendation by Pynk One Ltd. and is not intended to be relied upon by users in making (or refraining from making) any investment decisions. Appropriate independent advice should be obtained before making any such decision. When investing, your capital is at risk and you may recover less than the initial investment.
