A company’s performance relative to its peers will be ultimately driven by management’s strategic decision making ability to drive growth and position the organisation for changing market conditions.
Whilst investors ultimately care about picking stocks with management teams that can generate returns for shareholders, it is also important to be able to correctly time these investments or trades. An extreme example would be to short a stock that where goes bankrupt, but in the near term skyrockets, forcing you to close at a loss.
You have been given the daily returns of several strategies / funds over the past year, how would you determine which one provides the best investment opportunity given only this information?
A naive approach might be to select the strategy with the best-annualized return, however, this ignores the level of potential risk that may materialize in future returns. For instance, suppose that the returns on Strategy A are better than that of Strategy B, but strategy A has a higher variance in daily returns (volatility). …