How’s My 10 Year $1M Price Target For Bitcoin Looking 3+ Years In?
Since leaving my role as an equity analyst at Goldman Sachs in January, 2000, I’ve only published two price targets. My first price target, published in March 2010, is up 85X. I published my second price target, a 10 year $1M price target on bitcoin, on January 3, 2021.
That $1M price target was based on a simple three part premise:
- Bitcoin is a dramatically better store of value than the dominant store of value, gold.
- At that time, gold had a ~$9.8T market cap. Given the dramatic improvement bitcoin represents in the utility of store of value, I projected that the store of value market cap would grow to $40+ trillion over 10 years
- I assumed bitcoin would grow to a 50% share of the $40T store of value market in 10 years, which would equal ~$1M per bitcoin
Now, 3.5+ yrs in, how is the store of value market tracking against those projections?
Gold Market Cap Is Growing Faster Than Projected
The market cap of gold has been growing almost 50% faster than my 2021 projections. At it’s current rate (11.2% per annum), gold market cap will reach $28.2T in 2031, vs. my earlier $20T projection.
Bitcoins Share Of Store Of Value Is Growing Slower Than Projected
In Jan. 2021, bitcoin represented 5.2% of the total store of value market cap. Over the past 3.5 years, bitcoin’s market cap has grown to an 8.2% share. At it’s current annual growth rate 0f 13.7%, bitcoin would represent 18.8% share of store of value in 2031:
Given gold’s current market cap growth trajectory, an 18.8% share of store of value would yield a 2031 price of ~$300,000 for bitcoin (at the projected at $6.5T market cap).
The growth of bitcoin’s share of total market cap needs to 2X+ to 27.7% to get to $1M bitcoin in 2031. That feels imminently doable to me given the the ever deteriorating macro environment and bitcoin’s ever improving dynamics:
So my$1M price projection for bitcoin in 2031, solely based on its store of value narrative, appears on track. That said, I believe that bitcoin has such unique properties, it’s high likely to create massive value outside of store of value, and that’s all just icing on the SPECTACULAR bitcoin cake
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This content is for educational purposes only. It does not constitute trading advice. Past performance does not indicate future results. Do not invest more than you can afford to lose. The author of this article may hold assets mentioned in the piece.
