World with Blockchain at 2068
The world was so recent that many things lacked names, and in order to indicate them it was necessary to point.
— One Hundred Years of Solitude Gabriel José de la Concordia García Márquez
Start from a mud
When I was young, I loved to play with mud. The mud was used to create various things. Some would be pinned into cars and pistols; others would be small tigers and little lions. Later, when we made a good shape, we would show off to my friends, and the toys made by mud have become valuable assets for everyone to snatch. For us, that was the most meaningful thing. Suddenly things were changed. For example, no one in the third or fourth grade played mud. If a junior high school student took a toy gun made of mud, he would be considered dumb. But if before this change, one told me that playing mud was quite boring, there was no way that I would believe in you.
Nowadays, the cryptocurrency market can be described as crazy. Some projects can shrink by 80% in one day and then pump up 50% pump in another day. In such a stimulating game, everyone seems to be under the microscope to examine. Life is erratic and unpredictable like a farce and human greed, fragility, fear are completely exposed. But we are still hold on to this. In fact, for the entire blockchain, token is equivalent to the mud, but it feels worthwhile to play with it. It may happen that one day you grow up, you feel so ridiculous at that time. Or the whole industry has developed, and it is natural to say goodbye to the current situation.
An interesting question about this industry is: “What will happen to the blockchain in 2068? Is the blockchain technology still in existence at that time? If so, what stage will it be at in 2068?” If I was a celebrity in blockchain industry, I might pretend to throw a conclusion that cannot be proved. Watching everyone’s fierce debate in the commentary area is a very interesting thing. These disputes may even become a hot spot for a while and even trigger the market turmoil. It’s a pity that I don’t have that influence, and, now, my judgment may be criticized by everyone who is in love with blockchain.
Why should we discuss blockchain for another 50 years, until 2068? The Internet has been in development for almost 50 years since 1968, and the blockchain is also 50 years from 2018 to 2068. In the past 50 years, the Internet has made great progress, especially in the last 20 years. But we still can’t say how long the Internet will evolve into the ultimate form in the future. The blockchain relies on the Internet, and the rules governing their development are similar. Therefore, the blockchain is not just getting started in 2068. We can’t see anything clearly in the future through a layer of fog, nor is the system framework basically perfect, and the pattern has not taken shape. Therefore, this time node is suitable. The blockchain is still relying on the Internet. Everyone has a deep feeling in the Internet over the past 50 years, especially in the past 20 years. 50 years are not long, at least you have experienced the fastest 20 years of Internet development.
1960s
Let’s look back at the history of 1960s:
1964
Paul Baran, RAND: “On Distributed Communications Networks”
1965
ARPA sponsors study on “Cooperative network of time-sharing computers”
1967
ARPANET design discussions held by Larry Roberts at ARPA IPTO PI meeting in Ann Arbor, Michigan (April)
1968
PS-network presented to the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA)
Network Working Group (NWG), headed by Steve Crocker, loosely organized to develop host level protocols for communication over the ARPANET.
At the beginning of the operation of the ARPA, there were not many computers connected through the interface I/O. Most of them were incompatible with each other. The work finished on one computer was difficult to move to another computer. There were so many challenges to connect computers that have different hardware and software. At that time, the situation in the United States was: the Army’s computers were DEC products, the Navy’s computers were Honeywell machines, and the Air Force used IBM’s computers. Each service’s computer worked well in its own department, but there was a big obstacle: they can’t share resources. At that time, scientists proposed the idea that “all computers are born equally.” In order for these computers to achieve “resource sharing,” it is necessary to establish a common understanding of these systems. The standards are followed so that different computers can be “negotiated” according to certain rules and can “handshake” after negotiations.
In this context, after about 10 years of development, the “Transmission-Control Protocol” (TCP) and “Internet Protocol” (IP), which are used by all net users and web masters, have evolved. The IP protocol is generally responsible for data transmission, and the TCP protocol is responsible for discovering transmission problems. When there is a problem, it will send a signal requesting retransmission until all data are safely and correctly transmitted to the destination. It was not until 1984 that the US Department of Defense adopted TCP/IP as the standard for all computer networks.
In 1985, the Internet Architecture Board held a three-day working conference with 250 vendors representing, concerning the computing industry using TCP/IP to help promote the protocol and lead its growing commercial applications. Since then, it has laid the foundation of the network and started the next decade of rapid development.
The Internet
Since the mid-1990s, the rapid development of the Internet has exerted a revolutionary impact on the culture and economy of society, and new things sprung up, such as e-mail, instant messaging, VoIP, telephone, interactive video calling and WWW protocols, greatly enhancing the capacity of interpersonal connection.
Thus, a new generation rises up, such as social networks and e-commerce. The ever-increasing data are being transmitted through increasingly fast fiber-optic networks, from 1 Gbit/s to 10 Gbit/s, and to 40 Gbit/s in a very short time. The proportion of Internet-occupied communication modes for all human beings is from less than 1% in 1993 to nearly 51% in 2000, and by 2007 it accounted for almost 97%. The Internet continues to open up new frontiers of information imperialism, from e-commerce to online advertising, from music to games, from movies to travel, from zero to everything in the world. Then, software is eating the world. All of us are connected.
However, when all of us were connected, we suddenly found that we were caught in a vast expanse of data. Almost all resources were monopolized by big companies. All the rising channels were layered and blocked by the big companies. Rare talents are rising up after ten-year hard work, but they will soon become a new member of the large companies.
Therefore, we found that uncountable companies have collapsed in the past decade, and no big technology company has emerged. Even the new rising star — Facebook actually was born in 2004. This has led to more and more unscrupulous programmers accumulating on a global scale. They are weak and the products they develop are not supported and promoted. It is difficult to generate huge social value and they have to choose to sell them early. Coinbase’s Armstrong said that at a rough estimate, the amount of such programmers might have reached 5 million. (Yes, comparing the programmers of this era with Bill Gates’s programmers who created the Microsoft era, they don’t have too much difference on either skill or ambition).
A more upset fact is that, somehow, wealth began to quietly depreciate. Companies that have reached the market value of $500 billion in the industrial age, such as GE or Ford, employ about 600,000 to 800,000 staff members (no doubt they are middle-class), and by the end of last year, Facebook’s market value of $500 billion only employed 25,105 full-time employees (they are still middle class). Tencent has a market value of $447.7 billion, and how many people are employed? 44,796! (Definitely not all middle-class citizens). So what about the hundreds of thousands of non-middleclass people? It doesn’t matter, we have Meituan, Ctrip, Eleme, DiDi, Uber, Airbnb, Taobao, Maoyan, Tinder, Kuaishou, and Pinduoduo… Maybe they can help us temporarily overcome the fear, but who can say for sure someday when they grow up will not bring new panic?
Mary Meeker, Queen of the Internet, published an Internet trends report annually. Two trends are emphasized: mobile phones are getting smaller and more powerful; we are growing moneyless (so-called light assetization). The so-called “consumption downgrade” that was claimed by Pinduoduo has caused an uproar in the public. Although the claim that “Chinese people love savings” has already passed, people’s overall risk concept is still falling behind the time. Especially in the present, the medical, insurance, and pension systems in China have not been fundamentally improved, and people have a high probability of paying for the uncertainty of the future.
In this context, China that is experiencing consumption-downgrading has such a market status — people are quickly indebted because of anxiety and panic, and they still need time to adjust to monthly high interest expenses, which is full of insecurities for potential future expenditures and sharp decline of consumer spending. The logic of Pinduoduo is to adapt to such market conditions, providing simple services — use less money to experience the thrill of normal consumption!
If you think that this has nothing to do with the blockchain, I am sorry to say that you are wrong. A blockchain is not an “orphan” technology, but a combination of many technologies. Under the arrangement of various technologies, the new ecology is gradually formed, which in turn breeds new species, and finally subverts the existing knowledge system and social structure, opening up a new world. In the context of social change, blockchain is an inevitable choice for the development of the times, and it is also a stage in which social progress must step over. Thus, my point is that the blockchain can only be considered in the context of a specific era. In the past 50 years, apart from the rapid development of the Internet, which technologies are undergoing rapid changes? I think at least the following content cannot be ignored:
● Medical and biological technologies: Development of MRI, new drugs and biotechnology;
● Transportation: Development of large passenger aircraft, jet aircraft, high-speed railway;
● Robots and factories: Development of more and more robots and highly automated factories and production lines;
● Communication technology: Development of communication satellite, GSM, CDMA, LTE;
● Music and game devices: Development of Sony Walkman, Apple’s iPod, MMORPG, mobile games;
● Banking services: ATM machines all over the world;
● Personal computers and mobile phones: Development of desktop computers, mobile phones, and tablets;
● Position and localization technology: Development of global mobile positioning technology;
● Optical fiber technology: Development of ultra-high-speed optical fiber communication technology;
● Semiconductor technology: Development of the increasingly fast semiconductor industry;
● …
The development of these technologies is still continuing the thought of the industrial age, which is to boost the production capacity and enlarge the efficiency of the unit capital, so that the individual is empowered, possessing more social resources. Or we can say individuals become part of a stronger social resource.
Thanks to the development of Internet technologies, the world has undergone some changes. Looking back over the past 10 years, the Internet provides a more flexible information delivery channel and a more reliable and fast communication tool. Thanks to the significant enhancement of the connection between people and machines, machines and machines, content, advertising, games, music, movies and other content services flourishing in the Internet environment. The Internet is no longer satisfied with the role of merely acting as a channel for information delivery. It also implements online consumption, payment of bills, transactions, and scaled collaborations. With more intelligent devices, cameras, and mobile computing platforms appearing, the boundaries between the physical world and the digital world are gradually intangible, and the two worlds are no longer distinct, but begin to infiltrate and merge with each other. In order to improve efficiency and accuracy, and provide more tangible goods and services, a sudden clap of thunder, Bitcoin was born in 2008.
The core concept of Bitcoin is a low-cost currency which means lower interest rates. And lower interest rates bring higher liquidity which will inevitably lead to faster production and consumption of goods. After this logic was straightened out by people who were deeply explored in the Internet field, we realized that something was created along with the Internet. It was originally part of the Internet from the beginning to the end.
We call it the Internet of Value. Internet of Value! It’s just perfect, but…
Exploration
But what? On September 16, 1620, 102 passengers led by the pastor Brest took the Mayflower to North America. Among them, 35 were Separatists, and the rest were artisans, fishermen, peasants and 14 contract slaves. The forerunners of any New World are a group of unscrupulous people in the traditional world. Bitcoin brought a bunch of currency speculators for the first time.
The Truth? Mud! Yes, the mud that we mentioned at the beginning! Whether it is currency speculation or chain building, they are all at the stage as the children’s pretending. They are still playing mud!
Why?
● The blockchain itself does not generate new value, and the blockchain is an Internet-based value transfer network;
● Then where does the value come from? It is from the development of the real economy and production;
● Blockchain only provides a production relationship, and data, especially massive data, which is new production materials, and artificial intelligence (AI) is a new productivity;
● Blockchain creates new production relationships, enabling AI to generate new value based on massive data. At that time, the blockchain serving AI and data can generate new value;
● Also, reforms only can success once it brings new profit. Same from anywhere …
what are we doing now?
The throat-cut competition is ongoing! Someone said “The existing financial system needs to be changed and ETH can be used to pay where you go.” Wait, you are not talking about WeChat Pay, right? Nowaday, the value of the entire Bitcoin network is nearly the same market value as Netflix. Netflix ranks 56th among traditional listed companies. In fact, there are many non-listed companies.
If you still can follow me, please allow me to insert a commercial ad: QuarkChain aims to solve the current core problem of low transactions per second (TPS) problem in blockchain industry. QuarkChain is most likely to appear on the top ten list. The public chain infrastructure determines the superstructure. According to our testnet which was launched in July, QuarkChain has achieved 14,000 TPS adopting the sharding technology. I firmly believe that our small target of hitting 1 million TPS can be achieved soon. At that time, QuarkChain will become the most solid ground of the blockchain ecosystem! （Testnet）
50 Years Later
If we look closer to the next decade to 2028, 5G communication technology should be universal. Short-range ultra-wideband technology has exerted a dramatic change in mobile Internet and mobile phone networks. Semiconductor technology is moving beyond Moore’s Law. The direction of development, lower power consumption, can provide greater awareness, computing, and communication capabilities.
1. The development of 5G communication technology
With the completion of 5G or even 6G networks, mobile networks will be the dominating means of communication. With mobile devices (not necessarily in mobile phones format) we can accomplish all the computing needs. We will also usher in an era of great development of the Internet of Things, when there will emerge a large amount of machine to machine communications.
2. The development of semiconductor technology
Van der Waals’ two-dimensional stacking structure, constructed of graphene and two-dimensional sulfide semiconductors, allows the size of devices to exceed the limit of a person’s imagination in the future. Since they are too thin, these devices with superior computing power will easily change your stereotype of semiconductor devices which can easily integrate with clothing. The ultra-high electron mobility of the new generation of semiconductors and excellent thermal performance will bring new design ideas to chip designers.
3. Moore’s Law and Blockchain
Moore’s law is the observation that the number of transistors in a dense integrated circuit doubles about every two years. In fact, while enjoying cheaper computers, the rapid development of semiconductor, chip, computer, Internet and other industries have brought us much more than this. The blockchain with mining equipment and nodes is clearly a member of this fast-growing system. The blockchain technology at this stage will be accompanied by these underlying technological developments, laying the foundation for value Internet and becoming the foundation of the future Internet.
After 50 years，at 2068, the blockchain technology will gradually spread inside the second stage of Internet, becoming another protocol like the Internet/TCP protocol, which is Value Protocol or we can called it the Trust Protocol. Then, it will disappear, just like a passenger calls for an Uber rider with a mobile phone does not need to know the existence of TCP. But we will get the following things:
● The development of Babel fish technology: the language barriers among people no longer exist;
● New genetic testing and editing， electronic medical records enter into daily medical care;
● Entering any entity that requires authorization no longer requires a password, but a blockchain based identification;
● The development of 6G communication technology; ultra-high bandwidth and large-scale data real-time transmission;
● Each family has more than 10 robots (medical, education, cleaning, entertainment, security, companionship, diet, communication, business, travel);
● The development of ultra-high-speed aircraft and high-speed train;
● With rapid development of edge computing and wearable technology, mobile phones will disappear;
● Reliable nuclear fusion and distributed energy;
● Some people reach the age of 150 (cure of cancer);
● Autonomous driving technology and the intelligentization of the traffic network will become popular;
●……
At that time, I am only 84 years old!
