THE TIMBERWOLVES WILL BE WORSE THAN YOU THINK THIS SEASON

Wrote about the Timberwolves, who will be really good for a really long time starting really soon, but maybe not quite yet. An excerpt:

Let’s start with the fact that the principals are all crazy young. Towns, LaVine, and Wiggins are all entering their age-21 season (defined by their age as of February 1st.) Dunn is 22. Muhammad is 24. Rubio and Dieng are 26. Bjelica and Aldrich are 28. Rush is practically Old Man River at age 31. The average player in Timberwolves camp is 26.5 years old, and that includes guys like 37-year-old Rasual Butler and soon-to-be 34-year-old John Lucas III, who most likely will not see the floor very often, if ever. The team’s projected minutes-weighted age for the upcoming season, per ESPN’s Kevin Pelton, is 24.3 years old.

Some perspective on teams that young: Over the past five years, 32 teams have finished the season with a minutes-weighted age younger than 25 years old. Those 32 teams have averaged 28.2 wins per 82 games (after adjusting the win totals of the five teams with rosters that young during the lockout-shortened 2011–12 season). Only four of them made the playoffs, and only three hit the 42-win mark the T-Wolves would need to break their Vegas over/under. Extend the sample back ten years, and 57 teams have averaged 28.9 wins, with only 11 of 57 making a trip to the postseason and just seven of 57 exceeding the aforementioned 42 wins. Last season’s Wolves, with a minutes-weighted age of 24.6 years and a 29–53 record, are basically the default expectation for that kind of team.

Read the full story at VICE Sports.