Kentucky Derby 2016 Week In Review: Thoughts, Notes, and Picks

Monday May 2

As a new dawn breaks on Kentucky Derby week, it is remarkable to look back upon the past year, and the gift we were given.

Every sport has its seasons. Football begins as the first leaves begin to turn gold. Hockey and basketball, and their indoor arenas, keep fans occupied and warm through winter. The opening day of baseball marks the start of spring.

But horse racing has no one season.

The Kentucky Derby preps begin before winter ends, and as the buds bloom on trees and in gardens, the withers of winning horses are draped in floral laurels, culminating with the roses and lilies of May. The Belmont makes way for summer, and the hazy heat and lathered horses of the midsummer classics. And as the landscape turns yellow, orange, red, brown, and purple, the clipped, fuzzy winter coats make their appearance along with the chill of winter.

As the New Year is celebrated, the Jockey Club quietly turns a page and Thoroughbreds officially gain a year. Foals and new hopes are born in the night at Thoroughbred farms large and small. Mares are bred, babies are weaned and turned out for the fall. Old horses while away their days in idyllic pastures and some of them die — as they all do, each death reminding us of how quick the years go by — and are interred not far from where they once grazed alongside their dams.

One has to wonder if for some of racing’s devoted, the allure comes from a subconscious longing to return to the rhythms of the Earth, away from the enclosed stadiums and walls separating us from Mother Nature. The horse is a soulful animal, one at harmony with the flow of the seasons. We long to be near them and their enviable closeness to the essence of Nature, even as we study numbers in programs and stand at railings, watching the post parades from behind sunglasses and drinks.

Like the tides, this ebb and flow is steadfast and rarely susceptible to being shaken up.

But a year ago today (just a year ago today), a handsome bay colt with a breathtaking stride sent quiet shock waves through the cyclic flow of the sport and its seasons with a flick of his abnormally short tail. The shock waves gathered as a hum and and grew and grew until they roared through Belmont Park five weeks later. Then they were unstoppable.

It was the Summer of Pharoah. Nothing could break these waves. Not even American Pharoah’s defeat at the Graveyard of Champions, which only cemented his legacy next to some of the all-time greats of American Thoroughbred racing, could stop them.

These waves flowed into the Bluegrass in the fall, a fall marked by a blood moon — a rare total eclipse of a supermoon. (Was that moon Nature’s nod to the great horse?) These waves mellowed to a deep rumble that ended with American Pharoah capturing a historic Breeders’ Cup Classic in his best style — lengths ahead and ears up.

Then he walked off the track for a final time, headed for a life of large, handsome box stalls bedded knee-deep in straw, lush green pastures, and an endless parade of fine mares. The trees shed their leaves, snow fell, and the Kentucky Derby preps began anew.

And yes, now a new dawn breaks on Derby week.

Tuesday May 3

• I review several Derby work videos back-to-back. A few things stand out:

Creator is strong, strong, strong, and his rider is visibly struggling to keep him under wraps. His time (4 furlongs in :50.60) is on the slow side, but his rider’s efforts to keep him from going all-out and his very similar work time of :50.40 before his win in the Arkansas Derby (Gr. I) tell me that :50.60 is an ideal pre-Derby work for this horse.

Mohaymen is a lovely mover down the stretch — not captivating in flight like American Pharoah was, but pleasant to watch. But unlike American Pharoah, he has to find his stride. He has been spitting bullets at Churchill Down (two 4-furlong works in :46.80 and :47.40).

Brody’s Cause appears happy and workmanlike at Churchill Downs, and keeps his ears pricked as he gallops. I enjoy seeing a horse with his or her ears up, and it’s worth noting that Brody’s Cause won the Bluegrass Stakes (Gr. I) with his ears up.

Nyquist’s 1-mile work at Keeneland is interesting as his works are traditionally 5 furlongs. I’m not sure if the extra 3 furlongs will hurt him or help him. It doesn’t concern me that he hasn’t worked at Churchill Downs; he didn’t work at Gulfstream Park before winning the Florida Derby (Gr. I).

Suddenbreakingnews is also a pleasure to watch gallop. A long, scopey mover, he is leggy and large-bodied, with a narrow chest (but that didn’t stop a certain Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner nicknamed The Fish).

• I can’t find a video of his work but UAE Derby (Group II) winner Lani, who bungled previous attempts at works over the Churchill Downs track, finally got a good one in. He breezed a respectable 1:01.00 for 6 furlongs.
• The post positions for the Kentucky Oaks are drawn — see Thursday’s notes for my thoughts.

Wednesday May 4

• Creator got upset while schooling in the paddock, and photos circulated of him rearing in a paddock saddling stall. His behavior doesn’t concern me much. Dortmund, who finished third in the 2015 Kentucky Derby, also gave his connections a hard time while schooling in the paddock before the Derby. As my own high-energy mare has taught me, sometimes horses need to get a good tantrum out of their system before they can settle down and focus.
• The Kentucky Derby post positions are drawn — see Thursday’s notes for my thoughts.

Thursday May 5

My top picks for the Kentucky Oaks are as follows:

Rachel’s Valentina (Post 11): Rachel’s Valentina is one of three Stonestreet Farm starters, but the best. She may have lost the Ashland Stakes (Gr. I), but only narrowly, and not without a valiant fight. For a first race off a 5-month layoff, her effort in the Ashland was spectacular. She can only improve from here. The only other time she was beaten was a second place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Gr. I) to Songbird, who could beat any 3-year-old, male or female, in the country. Rachel’s Valentina’s post position can help her — it gives her room to stay out of traffic and maneuver into a good stalking position.

The only downfall is rival Cathryn Sophia drawing the post outside Rachel’s Valentina. Both fillies are very strong-willed and I won’t be surprised if they lock horns again.

Rachel’s Valentina has the ultimate pedigree to win this race; who can forget her dam’s 20-length romp in the 2009 Kentucky Oaks? Her sire Bernardini also had stamina to spare.

Weep No More (Post 2): A winner in all her starts except her first, Weep No More is likely to improve off her win in the Ashland. She’s a closer and like the Ashland, the Oaks has no shortage of speed for her to take advantage of. She has post position 2, but as a closer a quick break isn’t as important as long as jockey Corey Lanerie keeps her out of traffic.

Cathryn Sophia (Post 12): Cathryn Sophia won her first four races by a combined 41–½ lengths; she was undefeated until she faced Rachel’s Valentina and a late-charging Weep No More in the Ashland. Two turns was a question for Cathryn Sophia until that race; she proved that the stamina is there as well as the speed. However, I think distances of 7 furlongs to a mile suit her better.

Go Maggie Go (Post 4): This speedy daughter of Ghostzapper only has two races under her belt — both wins — but she won the Gulfstream Park Oaks (Gr. II) like an experienced, mature horse. Unlike the other three fillies mentioned here, Go Maggie Go has been working at Churchill Downs since mid-April.

My top picks for the Kentucky Derby are as follows:

Nyquist (Post 13): Nyquist is undefeated in seven starts. He is also well-traveled, professional, gifted with his sire Uncle Mo’s long, loping stride and powerful hindquarters, and will not buckle under pressure, as demonstrated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (Gr. I) and Florida Derby (Gr. I).

Nyquist has good cruising speed but stamina may be a question. I like his post position — it will allow him to maneuver into a good stalking (or possibly speed) position with minimal traffic, providing he breaks well.

The only other question I have about Nyquist is regarding his 1-mile work. As noted earlier, 5-furlong works are his norm. The extra three furlongs can do one of two things: make him fitter or make him tired.

Exaggerator (Post 11): Exaggerator is a well-traveled horse that has won at Delta Downs, Saratoga, Del Mar, and Santa Anita. He is a strong, well-built horse by top sire Curlin, and he has a versatile running style. In the past he stalked or set the pace, but in recent races he has been adopting the role of closer. This may indicate he’s maturing and is content to settle down earlier.

Exaggerator worked a slow 1:02.80 at Churchill Downs on April 30, but he also worked slow (1:02.60) the week before his dazzling Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I) win. He also has the benefit of an experienced Kentucky Derby winner, Kent Desormeaux, in the irons.

Brody’s Cause (Post 19): Brody’s Cause is one of five horses in the field to win at Churchill Downs, and one of three to win at a mile at that track (the other two horses are Gun Runner and Mo Tom). Brody’s Cause breezed a sharp 1:00.20 over Churchill Downs on April 30.

As a closer, post position 19 works for him, as he can avoid traffic while not concerning himself with a quick break. As seen in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (Gr. I) and Blue Grass Stakes (Gr. I), once he gets rolling, he’s a force to be reckoned with.

The extra distance of the Kentucky Derby hasn’t historically played nice with Giant’s Causeway colts, but this long-striding closer may appreciate it.

Mohaymen (Post 14): Mohaymen was undefeated until he faced Nyquist in the Florida Derby, but I am tentatively tossing that race due to the track conditions at Gulfstream Park that day. Although the track was listed as good for the Florida Derby, it was clearly wet — with large puddles beneath the inside rail — and Mohaymen didn’t appear comfortable. Fortunately it will be dry and sunny in Louisville Friday and Saturday, so the track is guaranteed to be fast and dry on Derby day.

Mohaymen has been working very sharply at Churchill Downs ( 4-furlong works in :46.80 and :47.40), so he has no issues with the track as it is.

There are three sons of Tapit entered in this year’s Kentucky Derby and Mohaymen may be the first one to grant the stallion the distinction of “sire of a Kentucky Derby winner”.

Creator (Post 3): Although Creator has only been in two stakes races (he won the Grade I Arkansas Derby and finished third in the Grade II Rebel Stakes), he is relatively experienced with eight races on his resume. Creator has been slow to break from the gate, which isn’t ideal with post position 3. However, he has proven himself adept at maneuvering through race traffic, which is good because he will have to do plenty of maneuvering in the Derby.

As mentioned earlier, Creator looks very strong and ready to run in his work videos. By Tapit, Creator is out of Morena (PER), who has won at 10 furlongs in South America.

Danzing Candy (Post 20): Danzing Candy was a winner of three straight races until the sloppy Santa Anita Derby. As winner Exaggerator flew around that track with rockets on his feet, Danzing Candy struggled with the footing so that race is a toss for him.

If Danzing Candy can take the lead from post position 20 — which will be tough — then he has a chance to set the Derby pace.

Lani (Post 8): A Kentucky-bred son of Tapit (out of a Sunday Silence mare), Japanese-owned Lani is intriguing. Early on, the colt refused to work at Churchill Downs, instead opting to leisurely gallop as his rider smacked him with the whip in vain. He finally worked 6 furlongs in 1:01.00 on May 3.

If Lani can keep it together then he is a legitimate threat. He’s run — and won — at a distance further than any other horse in the Derby field, the 1–3/16 mile UAE Derby. He beat undefeated filly Polar River in that race, and was also unfazed by a bad stumble at the start of the race.