Despite the Hype, CES Showed Driverless Cars Still Need Work
The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is where companies big and small go to show off their visions of the future and showcase plenty of products that may never even go on sale to the public. For driverless vehicle enthusiasts, there was a lot to watch at this this year’s CES, but there were also indications that the technology still has a long way to go.
GM topped off the show by announcing that it will have a self-driving car without a steering wheel ready for sale in 2019; a promise that seems wishful at best and dangerous at worst given how many other autonomous vehicle makers have made similar commitments and later had to push them years down the road. The fact that it won’t have a steering wheel implies it would have level-5 capabilities, meaning it would have to be able to handle city and rural driving; be aware of every person, bike, and vehicle around it; and be able to drive in every possible weather and road condition.
It seems incredibly unlikely that GM’s promise will be possible to fulfill by 2019 when the arguable industry leader, Waymo, only recently began offering a limited level-4 service in a Phoenix, Arizona suburb and testing its vehicles in more difficult weather conditions in Michigan. Instead of improving, Waymo’s data shows seems to show that progress has stalled.
There was even evidence from CES that autonomous driving systems continue to struggle where weather conditions are not clear, dry, and sunny. After bad weather on the first day of the show, a number of driverless vehicle demos had to be canceled.
Does that mean there was no evidence of progress at CES? Of course not. The increase in the number of LiDAR manufacturers — one of the sensors that allows autonomous systems to map their environments — will play an important role in bringing down the cost of the sensors, which is currently in the five-figure range. There were also plenty of announcements from other hardware makers about chips to ensure autonomous systems have the power to process all the data they’re getting from the vehicle’s sensors and turn that into a course of driving that’s both safe and efficient.
After reviewing the driverless vehicle announcements at CES, Verge writer Tamara Warren concluded that “the self-driving revolution will start with senior citizens and pepperoni pizzas,” but I would add it’s going to stay there for a while to come. It’s possible that more level-4 taxi services will become available in suburban areas in the southern part of the United States throughout 2018, but the ability to drive in busy city centres, and the rain and snow of other parts of the country will remain a significant challenge for autonomous vehicles.
The jump from level 4 to level 5 is going to be much more difficult than what it took to get past level 3. CES is a hype show; it’s where companies go to show off and get people excited. But it shouldn’t be seen as an actual representation of the state of the industry. The truth is that self-driving cars still have a long way to go until they’re ready to lose the steering wheel for all possible driving situations — if they get there at all.
Want to know more about the current state of self-driving vehicles? I’ve assessed the challenges that remain to solved and the current state of the technology of companies in the sector. Progress has been made, but there’s still much to be done.
