The Curious Case Of Steven Brault
In the 2nd inning of his last start against the Phillies, Steven Brault, started to show what looks to be his next evolution as a potential top of the rotation starting pitcher. If you go to FanGraphs site and look at Brault’s prospect ratings, his highest rated pitch is his slider. The big problem with those rankings is his slider has been his worst pitch at the Major League level in terms of pitch value and his fastball is at elite levels in terms of pitch value right now. We might have seen some of this evolution during his start against the Cubs earlier in the season, but a little more investigation is needed to see if it is true. BrooksBaseball has Brault throwing 5 different pitches, 4 seam fastball, sinker (2 seam fastball), changeup, slider, and curve. This makes Brault more like Francisco Liriano in terms of what type of pitcher to expect and projecting his ceiling and floor as a potential MLB starter. However, BaseballSavant identified something in his game against the Phillies and what it showed was Brault possibly adding a cutter to his mix.
For his entire career, BaseballSavant and BrooksBaseball have identified Brault’s pitches remarkably similar, but at the start of the 2nd inning against the Phillies they diverged. Savant identified cutters that Brooks identified as sliders and Savant identified sliders which Brooks identified as curveballs. Brault’s spin rates on pitches identified as cutters by Savant show spin rate and velocities which indicate they are more likely cutters than hard sliders as the spin rate and velocities don’t match sliders of similar spin rates at the same velocities and it may be a kind of hybrid pitch as well. Here are the pitch type charts from both sites for the 2nd and 3rd inning.
What is clearly evident is Brault is starting to mix velocities and started to produce higher swinging strike rates, but his command is still a work in progress which may mean he’s been working on developing a new pitch or pitches or he’s learning to varying his velocities with his same pitches.
If Brault is developing a cutter or if he is developing a hybrid slider-cutter (slutter or cider) and a slurve. It creates an interesting dilemma for hitters who seem to have been using a patient hitting approach looking for his slider or changeup, because it means they can’t readjust to looking fastball which may now run between 87–94, his slider from 80–87, his curve from 77–80. It would also explain Brault’s increase in fastball pitch value and soft contact rates this season to elite levels. If those numbers can be maintained, FIP and xFIP numbers be damned as he will not regress towards those current numbers, but those numbers will normalize towards his ERA and his ERA will likely improve.
