RALLY’s Hot Take: Alabama’s Vote For Our Future
By Brendan McCartney
Brendan is a Fellow in RALLY’s San Francisco office and will join the team full time in 2018. For more on how to apply to the fellowship program visit the RALLY website.
Doug Jones made history in Alabama last night, defeating Republican Roy Moore and clinching one of the state’s U.S. Senate seats. This marks the latest in a growing string of Republican defeats across President Trump’s America — so much for all that winning, ey Don?
At a time when a single vote could prevent tax cuts for the wealthy and healthcare sabotage for the poor, having a Democratic vote in the Senate from a red state for the next three years might just make all the difference in the lives of millions of Americans.
However groundbreaking this all may be, the very narrow victory for Jones and the Democratic Party has been met with some real questions about the strength of the party and, quite frankly, the strength of our democracy. Right now, a lot of Americans are shrugging their shoulders and scratching their heads wondering, “Why was the race this close to begin with?”
Fair question, to be sure. On one hand, we had Jones: a former federal prosecutor widely described as a moderate throughout the span of his respectable career. On the other, we had Republican Roy Moore: a twice-removed Chief Justice of Alabama’s Supreme Court, who spent his free time allegedly preying on teen girls and getting famous by ordering judges to defy the Supreme Court’s 2015 decision to legalize same-sex marriage in America.
One might think the Alabama race was a lot like choosing between Disney World or hopscotch; HD or 144p; car or horseback. How was this election even a real choice?
But it was, and like most things, this wasn’t a black and white decision. It wasn’t even a red or blue decision — and Alabama is solidly red. A closer look into the numbers reveals: pedophile or not, homophobe or not, it is a REALLY big deal that Roy Moore lost, no matter how close he was to winning. He lost, and that is yuge (is that joke still funny?). Heck, had Doug Jones lost by 5 points, even that would have been a big deal.
So here’s the RALLY Hot Take:
1. This was a victory against history itself. It goes without saying that Alabama is as red as states come these days. In statewide elections, the Republican candidate typically beats his or her Democratic counterpart by a margin of 30 points or more. That percentage difference typically equates to hundreds of thousands of votes. In 2014, former Republican Senator Jeff Sessions won his seat without so much as a Democratic challenger willing to oppose him. In 2010 and then again in 2016, Republican Senator Richard Shelby won with roughly 65 percent of the vote. For some perspective, the last time a Republican lost a Senate seat in Alabama, O.J. Simpson was still a role model (assuming you’re a USC fan). Jones’ candidacy swam against the riptide of decades of history — and made it out the other side.
2. The resistance is working — sorta. Pundits expected this election to end in a Republican landslide. But the polls revealed a level of scrutiny from Alabama’s electorate that previous Republican candidates have not had to worry about. Even before the allegations of pedophilia and child abuse surfaced during the campaign, Moore’s lead over Jones, though consistent, came in at roughly 4 to 6 points. This number was much lower than leads seen from former Republican contenders — including President Trump — in the state. Jones’ victory was a clear upset and could not have happened without an incredible field operation and an inspiring turnout from Democrats, particularly from black men and women.
HOWEVER, fellow white folks, we gotta talk. Nearly ⅔ of white women voted for the pedophile, and nearly ¾ of white men joined them. This election win was largely thanks to black voters, who braved epic voter suppression efforts — from Voter ID to closed DMVs to being marked “inactive” — to turn out in record numbers. They did that for themselves, but every one of us cheering the outcome benefits from it. That’s not a right or fair distribution of democratic labor. Read my colleague Kacey’s take for more on that. I’ll leave it at, white voters…c’mon.
But not all white folks, or Republicans for that matter, lost sight of the fact that Moore was an unfit candidate. There was significant defection from Republicans throughout the state. Hundreds of thousands of Republican voters who opted for Shelby in 2010 and 2016 did not go for Moore in this race. Bigotry lost the day in 2017, and I’m confident it will continue to lose in 2018 and 2020.
3. Purple is the color of 2018 for a reason. Okay, so the color of 2018 is actually ultra-violet, but semantics! If Trump’s failed promises combined with Moore’s prehistoric morality can convince hundreds of thousands of conservative Alabamians to put country over party, then Republicans will soon be forced with a tough choice: run more moderate candidates, or lose bigly in the elections to come. This last year has made one thing very clear: Trump’s touch is poison. His influence and incumbency will work less as an electoral stimulant and more as a 10-ton anchor. Finding a middle ground for voters, meeting folks where they are, and leaving the days of the Good Ole Southern boys behind us could translate not just into a bright blue shiny future for Democrats, but a better, more purply and inclusive future for all Americans.
To millions of Americans watching at home, this election must have felt like a no-brainer. But it wasn’t — and to say anything different is an oversimplification of Alabama’s history and our current political climate. We win on details, and Democrats would do well to remember this moving into 2018. We at RALLY are proud of our fellow Americans who got out to vote in Alabama. They came together to stand up against bigotry and hate, reminding us all that a better future is possible for us all — maybe one that has us riding to the polls in fuel-efficient vehicles, not on horses.
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Brendan McCartney is a Fellow at RALLY, an issue-driven communications firm that takes on sticky political and social problems and finds ways to push them forward. He will join RALLY in January as an Account Associate. For more information on how to become a Fellow at RALLY, read about the position on our website.
