Advance Detection and Reporting Are Key to Preventing Attacks
What kinds of warning signs should we all be on the lookout for in the weeks and months ahead?
The attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump on July 13 raises concerns about possible copycat, opportunistic, or retaliatory attacks on public figures and, more broadly, on the public. The best way to defend against such attacks is to prevent them.
Shootings, bombings, and the like are most commonly prevented when members of the public report their suspicions. This is not always possible, of course. As of this writing, no advance warning signs about the would-be assassin’s intentions are known to have been found. Nonetheless, when researchers at RAND examined data on 325 mass attacks that were prevented, almost two-thirds were foiled by a tip from the public.
What kinds of warning signs should we all be on the lookout for in the weeks and months ahead? Not hostile comments or even idle threats on social media. Instead, look for intentions and actions among those in your circle of acquaintance that reveal a commitment to carrying out an attack.
Look for intentions and actions among those in your circle of acquaintance that reveal a commitment to carrying out an attack.
On the intentions side, this means those who state that they have been inspired by previous attacks to do the same. That they have no choice for whatever reasons (often but not always spelled out in a manifesto). That they will be the ones who, unlike all the other poseurs, will get off the sidelines. That they will join the ranks of infamous killers.
On the actions side, examples of potential preparation include writing plans for an attack, drafting a manifesto justifying one, doing research on how to kill individuals or maximize casualties, or seeking paramilitary training. Coordinating with known violent extremists is another warning sign.
Logistics indicators are concerning, as well. These include amassing, or attempting to amass, arsenals of weapons and ammunition (without a legitimate explanation, like collecting, target shooting, or hunting). They include travel to get paramilitary training or to the attack site (or making plans to travel). Finally, they include trying to surveil, probe, or trespass into a target site.
Social media posts are sure to be full of heated and even threatening words between now and Election Day. But if someone posts about killing a person or people at a specified location and shows off guns and ammunition — report that to law enforcement.
Also be alert to people showing commitments to carry out violent attacks, in general, regardless of whether they qualify as political violence, terrorism (PDF) or active shootings (PDF). In the RAND research, there were several dozen cases where what was initially reported as “ordinary” serious crime or suspicious activity ended up being part of plots for a mass attack.
If you suspect an attack might be imminent, call 911. To report a potential plot, the most relevant resource may well be school or workplace authorities. The Department of Homeland Security maintains a directory of state and local tip lines as part of their “See Something, Say Something” website. The FBI also accepts reports at tips.fbi.gov.
When in doubt, call. The experts who RAND researchers talked to emphasized that the number of tips vastly outnumbers the number of arrests. There is a widespread understanding that true plots and attacks are extremely rare, on the order of dozens per year across a country of 330 million, and that most tips will prove to be something other than a real plot. Most are handled without prosecutions and often lead to people getting the help they need. Conversely, when an attack reaches fruition, it’s common that someone noticed genuinely suspicious behavior beforehand but did not report it, letting perpetrators complete their preparations unhindered.
If you are seriously concerned about someone, even if uncertain, make the call.
We also need to give those investigating threats the breathing room to do so. We need to strongly discourage people from making hoax threats online as a way to express their anger or frustration. In addition to the civil and potentially criminal consequences, these jam up threat assessment and security teams, potentially preventing them from addressing true threats.
Further, death threats and other threats of serious violence are causing damage to our self-governance. The U.S. Capitol Police reported investigating over 8,000 threat assessment cases against members of Congress in 2023. A recent survey of election officials found that 16 percent of them have been threatened with harm; one-third personally know an election official who has resigned because of safety concerns.
If you are seriously concerned about someone, even if uncertain, make the call. Also, if someone you know is making death threats, even in jest, do what you can to discourage them. When it comes to protecting the public and public figures, we are our best defense.
John S. Hollywood is a senior operations researcher at RAND, where he conducts research on criminal justice, homeland security, and the use of AI in policing and criminal justice.
This originally appeared on rand.org on July 18, 2024.
