India’s National Elections — A New Ingredient in the Mix
As India’s national elections enter their 7th and final phase of voting on June 1, a new influential phenomenon has emerged.
As India’s national elections enter their 7th and final phase of voting on June 1, a new influential phenomenon has emerged: the proliferation of what may be called “micro-news providers” almost entirely broadcasting through the medium of YouTube.
In contrast to the licensed channels (which also rely heavily on YouTube), which number over 300, and are either regionally or nationally focused, and are incorporated entities, the micro-news providers are small-group informal efforts that number in the thousands. They were created primarily to cover this election and will close down their activities thereafter.
Many of the founders of micro-news outlets are journalists located in small towns and villages who are eager to broadcast their coverage of the elections with a strong local flavor. A second category is the election analyst. Many erstwhile large network–based analysts have left big media over the past decade and now broadcast their own analytical discussions on YouTube.
Reporting from the field by a local journalist has a depth and authenticity that the licensed providers cannot match.
The micro-news providers are giving the licensed broadcasters a run for their money. For example, a recent search of the topic “India elections” on YouTube yielded several hundred uploads within the prior 24 hours. The top 50 searches with at least 1,000 views showed that the top-three licensed broadcasters’ uploads had been viewed 97,000, 56,000, and 50,000 times. By contrast, the top-3 unlicensed broadcasters’ uploads had received 394,000, 142,000, and 127,000 views.
One reason for the popularity of the informal broadcasters is coverage. Reporting from the field by a local journalist about how their town or village is going to vote, the issues on which they will vote, and which parties they want to support has a depth and authenticity that the licensed providers cannot match.
The second reason is trust. Many once-independent networks have been sold to big businesses over the past decade and are considered by many viewers to have sold out to the politicians and their big businesses backers. For such viewers, the independent analyst is a more reliable source of coverage.
The third reason is the length of an Indian national election. The first phase of polling began on April 19 and the final (7th) phase will end on June 1. The results will be released only on June 4.
There is an understandable eagerness to know how the parties are faring after each phase. However, opinion and exit polls are forbidden from the first day of voting till the end of the last phase. The seven-week gap has, therefore, fueled a huge demand for news analyses.
The final cause is that, due to the reporting by the micro-news outlets, what earlier was widely expected to be an easy walkover for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Prime Minister Narendra Modi does not seem like that anymore. The large crowds at the opposition’s election rallies are widely reported in the micro-news media.
Opinion and exit polls are forbidden from the first day of voting till the end of the last phase. The seven-week gap has, therefore, fueled a huge demand for news analyses.
The opposition politicians also seem to have a new confidence in their responses to media queries. They point to signs that Modi’s popularity is declining: lower rating for his interviews, a sharp decline in online viewership, and lower turnout at his electoral rallies.
This is not to say that the BJP has lost its swagger. Even those on the side of the opposition seem to concede that the BJP, given its massive support in 2019, would have to lose an unlikely large amount of support if it and its allies are to lose this election.
What seems clear is that the election will be closer than revealed in the pre-election opinion polls. And, in no insignificant part, YouTube has played its role in promoting democracy in India.
Rafiq Dossani is a senior economist at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution, and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School.
This originally appeared on The RAND Blog on May 30, 2024.
