My Final Predictions for the 75th Emmy Nominations

Image Copyright: ATAS/Fox

The nominations for the 75th Primetime Emmy Award will be announced on Wednesday, July 12th. Here are my predictions in 16 major categories covering comedy series, drama series, limited series, and made-for-television movies.

This article includes my preview and predictions of the 75th Emmy nominations. Click here to read my recap of the nominations post-announcement.

10 THINGS TO KNOW BEFORE YOU READ MY PREDICTIONS

1. For those of you who don’t know, the Emmys are television’s top honor. They are what the Oscars are to film, the Tonys are to theater, and the Grammys are to music. (If one individual wins one of each, they are known as an EGOT recipient.)
2. This year will mark the 75th consecutive year the ceremony has been held. The first ceremony aired on January 25, 1949. (Fun fact: the legendary Betty White, who passed away in January 2021 just weeks shy of her 100th birthday, scored her first nomination at the 3rd Annual Emmys in 1951.)
3. The eligibility period for this year’s Emmys is June 1, 2022 and May 31, 2023. Thus, any series that aired all (or the majority of) its most recent season inside that time frame is eligible.
4. The Emmys are voted on by the approximately 20,000 members of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS). Voting for the nominees is done by the respective branches (e.g., actors vote for the acting categories, directors vote for the directing categories), with the exception of the series awards which all are allowed to vote on. The voting period for nominations occurred between June 15 and June 26.
5. Beginning in 2021, Outstanding Comedy and Drama Series have 8 nominees each, up from 7 the prior year and the traditional 5 that lasted several decades. The number of nominees in other categories is now determined by the number of submissions (or possible nominees). For example, a category will have 5 nominees if it has 20–80 submissions, but six6nominees if it has 81–160 submissions, 7 nominees if it has 161–240 submission, and 8 nominees if it has more than 240 submissions.
6. The winners will be voted on from August 17 to August 28 by special judging panels made up of a subset of ATAS members.
7. The ceremony is split into two, with the “higher profile” categories (series, lead and supporting acting, writing, and directing) announced during the main ceremony and several dozen “lower profile” categories (e.g., guest acting, technical achievements) being presented at the Creative Arts Emmy ceremony, which takes place the preceding weekend (September 9 and 10).
8. This year, the Emmys are slated to air on Fox on Monday, September 18th at 8pm EST/5pm PST. Virtually no other details about the ceremony have been released yet, including who will host or where it will be held. There is also a great deal of speculation that the ceremony will be postponed in light of the ongoing Writers Guild strike and the near-certain Screen Actors Guild strike.
9. Last year, 77% of the nominees I predicted ended up reaping nominations. That was a significant increase from the prior year. I am hoping I can increase that even further this year, but given the massive amount of eligible programs and large amount of turnover in eligibility due to shows having shorter runs and taking longer breaks in between seasons, the Emmys are increasingly challenging to predict.
10. Yvette Nicole Brown (Community, A Black Lady Sketch Show) will announce the nominees at 8:30 AM PDT/11:30 AM EDT on Wednesday, July 12th. The announcement can be watched live on the Emmy website.

COMEDY PREDICTIONS

Image Copyrights (Clockwise from Top Left): ATAS, AppleTV+, ABC, Hulu

Outstanding Comedy Series: Of last year’s 8 nominees in this category, 2 are ineligible this year due to not airing any new episodes during the nomination period—Max’s Hacks and HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm. I feel confident that ABC’s Abbott Elementary will be back for its highly lauded 2nd season and that it will be joined by AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso and Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, despite the somewhat chillier reception their respective 3rd and 2nd seasons had from critics and audiences. I also strongly suspect that HBO’s Barry and Prime’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel will get in given how much Emmy love they have received in the past and how acclaimed their final seasons were. Fx’s delightfully odd What We Do in the Shadows feels the most vulnerable of the shows attempting to repeat given that its most recent season aired so long ago, but it is still a good shot to get in. Hulu’s wildly acclaimed The Bear will certainly get in despite the fact that many say it belongs in the drama category. That leaves a number of series vying for the final slot. The top contenders are Netflix’s Wednesday, AppleTV+’s Shrinking, Peacock’s Poker Face, and Freevee’s Jury Duty. There’s also the possibility that Fx’s Reservation Dogs, Max’s The Other Two, or HBO’s Somebody Somewhere could break in or that Fx’s Atlanta could come back into the fold (but I doubt the latter following the chilly reception the Emmys gave its 3rd season). My money is on the final slot going to Wednesday, given its buzz and the fact that Netflix has gotten far weaker shows into the top categories with its impressive marketing muscle.

• Predicted Nominees (8): Abbott Elementary (ABC); Barry (HBO); The Bear (Hulu); The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video); Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Ted Lasso (AppleTV+); Wednesday (Netflix); What We Do in the Shadows (Fx)
• Alternates: Shrinking (AppleTV+); Poker Face (Peacock)

Outstanding Lead Actress: Of last year’s 6 nominees in the category, 3 are ineligible — Jean Smart (who won the past two years for Max’s Hacks), Kaley Cuoco (Max’s The Flight Attendant), and Issa Rae (whose brilliant HBO series Insecure wrapped its run). Due to the lower number of submissions, however, there are only 5 slots this year. I have little doubt that Quinta Brunson will get one of them for her work on ABC’s Abbott Elementary and that she will be joined by previous winner Rachel Brosnahan for her final season on Prime’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel and Jenna Ortega for her breakout performance on Netflix’s Wednesday. Elle Fanning was a somewhat surprising nominee last year for her work on Hulu’s The Great, but she will face some fresh competition this year, including Ortega, Natasha Lyonne (Peacock’s Poker Face), Bridget Everett (HBO’s Somebody Somewhere), and the brilliant co-stars of Netflix’s Dead to Me — Christina Applegate and Linda Cardellini. My bet is on the 4th and 5th spots going to Applegate and Lyonne. And then there’s the question over whether Selena Gomez can break in for Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building after being omitted for the 1st season. I think she deserves to for her improved performance on the show’s 2nd season, but sadly I think she will be overlooked again.

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Christina Applegate, Dead to Me (Netflix); Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime Video); Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face (Peacock); Jenna Ortega, Wednesday (Netflix)
• Alternates: Elle Fanning, The Great (Hulu); Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu)

Outstanding Lead Actor: All 6 of last year’s nominees are eligible again, but there are only 5 slots and 1 of them is going to Jeremy Allen White for his much-lauded performance on Hulu’s The Bear. Of last year’s 6 nominees, I think the strongest bets to return are Jason Sudeikis (who has gone 2-for-2 in this category for his title role in AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso) and Bill Hader (who received 11 nominations for the first 3 seasons of HBO’s Barry). I find it hard to believe that the Television Academy will miss the chance to nominate Steve Martin and Martin Short for Hulu’s Only Murders in the Building, but they just might to make room for Jason Segel (AppleTV+’s Shrinking). Other possibilities include Donald Glover for Fx’s Atlanta and Nicholas Hoult for Hulu’s The Great.

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Bill Hader, Barry (HBO); Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (Hulu); Jason Sudeikis, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+); Jeremy Allen White, The Bear (Hulu)
• Alternates: Jason Segel, Shrinking (AppleTV+); Donald Glover, Atlanta (Fx)

Outstanding Supporting Actress: Of last year’s 8 nominees in this category, 3 are ineligible — Sarah Niles (whose reduced role on AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso is eligible for the guest actress category this year), Kate McKinnon (who wrapped her long run on NBC’s Saturday Night Live in 2022), and Hannah Einbinder (Max’s Hacks). I have trouble envisioning a scenario where we don’t see the return of Sheryl Lee Ralph and Janelle James from ABC’s Abbott Elementary, Hannah Waddingham of AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso, Alex Borstein of Prime’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and Sarah Goldberg of HBO’s Barry. There are only 7 slots this year, so that leaves 2 unaccounted for. I expect one to go to Lisa Ann Walter for her increasingly acclaimed turn on Abbott Elementary and the other to go to Ayo Edebiri for Hulu’s The Bear. However, they will face stiff competition from Juno Temple (AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso), Jessica Williams (AppleTV+’s Shrinking), Molly Shannon (Max’s The Other Two), Christina Ricci (Netflix’s Wednesday), Michelle Yeoh (Disney+’s American-Born Chinese), Zazie Beetz (Fx’s Atlanta), and the female cast of NBC’s Saturday Night Live (who infuriatingly compete here despite starring on a variety show).

• Predicted Nominees (7 slots): Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime); Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (Hulu); Sarah Goldberg, Barry (HBO); Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Sheryl Lee Ralph, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Hannah Waddingham, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+); Lisa Ann Walter, Abbott Elementary (ABC)
• Alternates: Juno Temple, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+); Christina Ricci, Wednesday (Netflix).

Outstanding Supporting Actor: All 8 of last year’s nominees in this category are eligible again this year, but there are only 7 spots available. I suspect that the safest bets to return are Brett Goldstein (a 2-time winner for AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso), Henry Winkler (a previous winner for HBO’s Barry), and Tyler James Williams (a previous nominee for ABC’s Abbott Elementary). Two others in a strong position to repeat are Tony Shalhoub (a previous winner for Prime’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel) and Anthony Carrigan (Barry). Given the fairly chilly reception that Ted Lasso’s 3rd season received, I suspect that Brendan Hunt and Nick Mohammed will be left out in favor of some fresh blood, as will Bowen Yang of NBC’s Saturday Night Live. The most likely actors to take the final 2 spots are big-screen icon Harrison Ford for AppleTV+’s Shrinking and Ebon Moss-Bachrach for Hulu’s The Bear. However, its not smart to totally count out Phil Dunster (who has yet to be nominated for his role in AppleTV+’s Ted Lasso and whose performance was one of the most acclaimed aspects of the season), Chris Perfetti (ABC’s Abbott Elementary), or James Marsden (Freevee’s Jury Duty).

• Predicted Nominees (7 slots): Anthony Carrigan, Barry (HBO); Harrison Ford, Shrinking (AppleTV+); Brett Goldstein, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+); Ebon Moss-Bachrach, The Bear (Hulu); Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Prime); Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary (ABC); Henry Winkler, Barry (HBO)
• Alternates: Phil Dunster, Ted Lasso (AppleTV+); Chris Perfetti, Abbott Elementary (ABC)

DRAMA PREDICTIONS

Image Copyrights (Clockwise from Top Left): ATAS, HBO, HBO, HBO

Outstanding Drama Series: Of last year’s 8 nominees in the category, a whopping 5 are ineligible this year — Netflix’s Ozark wrapped its run during the 2021–2022 eligibility period and the forthcoming seasons of HBO’s Euphoria, AppleTV+’s Severance, Netflix’s Squid Game, and Netflix’s Stranger Things were delayed until after the eligibility period. It seems a certainty that HBO’s Succession and AMC’s Better Call Saul will be back for their widely acclaimed final seasons and that they will be joined by HBO’s The White Lotus. (The latter series dominated the Limited Series category last year, but is moving to the Drama Series categories this year given that the 2nd season continued plot threads from the 1st and thus can no longer be nominated in the stand-alone Limited/Anthology series categories.) However, the other 2 that have the potential to return are vulnerable, given that Showtime’s Yellowjackets was seen by many as having a downturn in quality in its 2nd season and the buzz on Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale is fading (despite its continued brilliance). Plus, there is some very stiff competition this year that wasn’t there last year, including the return of Emmy favorites The Crown (Netflix) and The Mandalorian (Disney+) and the debut of Emmy favorite Game of Thrones’s prequel series House of the Dragon (HBO), the massively acclaimed The Last of Us (HBO), Star Wars standout Andor (Disney+), Yellowstone (Paramount Network), Yellowstone universe expansion series 1923 (AppleTV+), Bad Sisters (AppleTV+), The Diplomat (Netflix), and The Old Man (Fx). One thing that is for certain is that some very popular, very acclaimed series will be snubbed given this cutthroat competition.

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Andor (Disney+); Better Call Saul (AMC); The Crown (Netflix); House of the Dragon (HBO); The Last of Us (HBO); Succession (HBO); The White Lotus (HBO); Yellowjackets (Showtime)
• Alternates: The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); The Mandalorian (Disney+)

Outstanding Lead Actress: Of last year’s 6 nominees, 5 are ineligible — Zendaya (HBO’s Euphoria), Reese Witherspoon (AppleTV+’s The Morning Show), Laura Linney (Netflix’s Ozark), and BBCAmerica’s Killing Eve co-stars Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer. Only Yellowjackets’s Melanie Lynskey is eligible to return, and she is almost certain to do so. It’s hard to imagine a scenario in which she is not joined by Sarah Snook for HBO’s Succession (she was submitted in supporting for the first 3 seasons, but was promoted to lead for the 4th and final season) and Imelda Staunton for Netflix’s The Crown (the two actresses that preceded her in the role of Queen Elizabeth II scored 4 nominations and 2 wins in this category). Even though The Handmaid’s Tale is a long shot to score a (richly deserved) 5th consecutive nomination in Outstanding Drama Series, Elisabeth Moss seems likely to make it in here for her consistently mesmerizing performance. I suspect they will be joined by Bella Ramsey, who was so memorable on HBO’s The Last of Us, and Emma D’Arcy, who was the standout of the ensemble of HBO’s House of the Dragon. Although many are predicting a nomination for the legendary Dame Helen Mirren, I am hesitant to predict her after the Emmys have failed to give any nominations to Yellowstone or 1883. Other potential contenders include Keri Russel for Netflix’s The Diplomat, Sophie Nelisse for Showtime’s Yellowjackets (in which she plays the younger version of Lynskey’s character), Sharon Hogan for AppleTV+’s Bad Sisters, and Samantha Morton for Starz’s The Serpent Queen.

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Emma D’Arcy, House of the Dragon (HBO); Melanie Lynskey, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us (HBO); Sarah Snook, Succession (HBO); Imelda Staunton, The Crown (Netflix)
• Alternates: Helen Mirren, 1923 (Paramont+); Keri Russell, The Diplomat (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actor: Of last year’s 6 nominees, 3 are ineligible — Justin Bateman (Netflix’s Ozark), Lee Jung-jae (Netflix’s Squid Game), and Adam Scott (AppleTV+’s Severance). Of the 3 who are eligible to return, all of them seem like sure bets— Bob Odenkirk of AMC’s Better Call Saul and Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox of HBO’s Succession (although the latter barely qualifies as a series regular for the final season, let alone a lead). Those 3 will be joined by Succession’s Kieran Culkin, who has been promoted from supporting for the final season and whose inevitable inclusion will lead to new record for most lead actors ever nominated for a single series in a single year. I suspect that the 5th slot will go to Pedro Pascal for HBO’s The Last of Us, as he will be riding the huge buzz of both that series and The Mandalorian. For the 6th slot, I am predicting big screen legend Jeff Bridges, who did such great work on Fx’s acclaimed series The Old Man. Other strong contenders include Diego Luno (Disney+’s Andor), Dominic West (Netflix’s The Crown), Harrison Ford (Paramount+’s 1923), Kevin Costner (Paramount Network’s Yellowstone), Paddy Considine (HBO’s House of the Dragon), Matthew Rhys (HBO’s Perry Mason), and Anthony Starr (Prime’s The Boys).

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Jeff Bridges, The Old Man (Fx); Brian Cox, Succession (HBO); Kieran Culkin, Succession (HBO); Bob Odenkrik, Better Call Saul (AMC); Pedro Pascal, The Last of Us (HBO); Jeremy Strong, Succession (HBO)
• Alternates: Diego Luna, Andor (Disney+); Dominic West, The Crown (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actress: Of last year’s 8 nominees, 1 switched categories — Succession’s Sarah Snook is now competing in lead — and 4 are ineligible — Julia Garner (Netflix’s Ozark), Patricia Arquette (AppleTV+’s Severance), Sydney Sweeney (HBO’s Euphoria), and HoYeon Jung (Netflix’s Squid Game). Of the 3 who could return here, all 3 are likely to — J. Smith Cameron (HBO’s Succession), Rhea Seehorn (AMC’s Better Call Saul), and Christina Ricci (Showtime’s Yellowjackets). They will be undoubtedly be joined by multiple ladies from HBO’s The White Lotus — Jennifer Coolidge and Aubrey Plaza seem like locks and Meghann Fahy, Sabrina Impacciatore, and Haley Lu Richardson are strong contenders as well. Also in a strong position is Elizabeth Debicki, who did a superb job taking over the role of Princess Diana in Netflix’s The Crown. It’s also hard to imagine the Television Academy giving up a chance to nominate nonaganerian TV legend Carol Burnett for her memorable turn on AMC’s Better Call Saul. Other contenders include Lesley Manville (Netflix’s The Crown), Ann-Marie Duff (AppleTV+’s Bad Sisters), Simone Kessell (Showtime’s Yellowjackets), and the many brilliant co-stars from Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale (including Ann Dowd, Yvonne Strahovski, and Samira Wiley).

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): Carol Burnett, Better Call Saul (AMC); Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus (HBO); Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown (Netflix); Meghann Fahy, The White Lotus (HBO); Aubrey Plaza, The White Lotus (HBO); Christina Ricci, Yellowjackets (Showtime); Rhea Seehorn, Better Call Saul (AMC); J. Smith-Cameron, Succession (HBO)
• Alternates: Haley Lu Richardson, The White Lotus (HBO); Lesley Manville, The Crown (Netflix)

Outstanding Supporting Actor: Of last year’s 8 nominees, 1 switched categories — Succession’s Kieran Culkin is competing in lead — and 5 are ineligible — O Yeong-su and Park Hae-soo (Netflix’s Squid Game), John Turturro and Christopher Walken (AppleTV+’s Severance), and Billy Crudup (AppleTV+’s The Morning Show). The 2 that are eligible to return — Succession’s Matthew Macfadyen and Nicholas Braun are locked in. I suspect that they will be joined by their co-stars Alan Ruck and Alexander Skarsgard. I also suspect that F. Murray Abraham and Michael Imperioli will be nominated for their work on HBO’s The White Lotus. Their co-stars Theo James, Will Sharpe, Adam DiMarco, and Tom Hollander also could get in. Other strong contenders include Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks of AMC’s Better Call Saul, Rufus Sewell from Netflix’s The Diplomat, Jonathan Pryce from Netflix’s The Crown, Matt Smith from HBO’s House of the Dragon, and John Lithgow from Fx’s The Old Man.

• Predicted Nominees (8 slots): F. Murray Abraham, The White Lotus (HBO); Nicholas Braun, Succession (HBO); Michael Imperioli, The White Lotus (HBO); John Lithgow, The Old Man (Fx); Matthew Macfadyen, Succession (HBO); Jonathan Pryce, The Crown (Netflix); Alan Ruck, Succession (HBO); Alexander Skarsgard, Succession (HBO)
• Alternates: Matt Smith, House of the Dragon (HBO); Giancarlo Esposito, Better Call Saul (AMC)

LIMITED/ANTHOLOGY SERIES AND MOVIE PREDICTIONS

Image Copyrights (Clockwise from Top Left): ATAS, Netflix, AppleTV+, Netflix

Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series: This category is markedly weaker than it has been in recent years. The clear frontrunners seem to be Netflix’s Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, AppleTV+’s Black Bird, and Netflix’s Beef. The final 2 spots seem to be a race between Fx’s Fleishman is in Trouble, Prime’s Daisy Jones & the Six, Max’s Love & Death, Prime’s The English , Showtime’s George & Tammy, Fx’s The Patient, National Geographic’s A Small Light, HBO’s White House Plumbers, Hulu’s Welcome to Chippendales, Hulu’s Tiny Beautiful Things, Prime’s Dead Ringers, and Disney+’s Obi-Wan Kenobi.

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Beef (Netflix); Black Bird (AppleTV+); Fleishman is in Trouble (Fx); Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix); A Small Light (National Geographic)
• Alternates: The English (Prime); George & Tammy (Showtime)

Outstanding Made-for-Television Movie: This perennially embarrassing category will once again struggle to find 5 worthy contenders. I expect the nominees to be a mix of films that were intended to be released theatrically and then dumped on a streamer (Hulu’s Fire Island and Prey), a wholesome Dolly Parton pic (NBC’s Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic Christmas), a wacky biopic (Roku’s Weird: The Al Yankovic Story), and a historical drama (Hulu’s Boston Strangler).

• Predicted Nominees (5 slots): Boston Strangler (Hulu); Dolly Parton’s Mountain Magic Christmas (NBC); Fire Island (Hulu); Prey (Hulu); Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Roku)
• Alternates: Reality (HBO); Reno 911!: It’s a Wonderful Heist (Comedy Central)

Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: A number of high-profile actresses will face off here, including Oscar winner Jessica Chastain (Showtime’s George & Tammy), Oscar winner Rachel Weisz (Prime’s Dead Ringers), perplexingly un-Oscar nominated Emily Blunt (Prime’s The English), Elvis Presley’s granddaughter Riley Keough (Prime’s Daisy Jones & The Six), Marvel star Elizabeth Olsen (Max’s Love & Death), critical darling Kathryn Hahn (Hulu’s Tiny Beautiful Things), comedian Ali Wong (Netflix’s Beef), Euphoria breakout Sydney Sweeney (HBO’s Reality), GLOW breakout Betty Giplin (Peacock’s Mrs. Davis), Masters of Sex breakout Lizzy Caplan (Hulu’s Fleishman is in Trouble), The Morning Show breakout Bel Powley (National Geographic’s A Small Light), and Judas and the Black Messiah breakout Dominique Fishback (Prime’s Swarm).

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Emily Blunt, The English (Prime); Jessica Chastain, George & Tammy (Showtime); Elizabeth Olsen, Love & Death (Max); Sydney Sweeney, Reality (HBO); Rachel Weisz, Dead Ringers (Prime); Ali Wong, Beef (Netflix)
• Alternates: Bel Powley, A Small Light (National Geographic); Lizzy Caplan, Fleishman is in Trouble (Hulu)

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: A number of notable actors will be facing off here, including Rocketman breakout Taron Egerton (AppleTV+’s Black Bird), Mare of Easttown Emmy winner Evan Peters (Netflix’s Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story), Harry Potter himself Daniel Radcliffe (Roku’s Weird; The Al Yaknovic Story), Minari Oscar nominee Steven Yeun (Netflix’s Beef), The Social Network Oscar nominee Jesse Eisenberg (Fx’s Fleishman is in Trouble), The Office legend Steve Carell (Fx’s The Patient), 2-time Oscar nominee Michael Shannon (Showtime’s George & Tammy), 3-time Oscar nominee Woody Harrelson (HBO’s White House Plumbers), perplexingly un-Oscar nominated Ewan McGregor (Disney+’s Obi-Wan Kenobi), critical darling Ben Whishaw (AMC’s This is Going To Hurt), and relative newcomer Chaske Spencer (Prime’s The English).

• Predicted Nominees (6 slots): Steve Carell, The Patient (Fx); Taron Egerton, Black Bird (AppleTV+); Evan Peters, Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix); Daniel Radcliffe, Weird: The Al Yankovic Story (Roku); Michael Shannon, George & Tammy (Showtime); Steven Yeun, Beef (Netflix)
• Alternates: Jesse Eisenberg, Fleishmanis in Trouble (Fx); Woody Harrelson, White House Plumbers (HBO)

Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: There are few frontrunners here but 7 spots to fill, so this category is ripe for some surprises. The frontrunners appear to be Niecy Nash-Betts (Netflix’s Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story), Claire Danes (Fx’s Fleishman Is in Trouble), and Olivia Colman (Fx’s Great Expectations). Some combination of the following group will likely round out theother 4 spots — Lily Rabe (HBO’s Love & Death), Maria Bello (Netflix’s Beef), Ashley Park (Netflix’s Beef), Cherry Jones (AppleTV+’s Five Days at Memorial), Lena Headey (HBO’s White House Plumbers), Penelope Ann Miller (Netflix’s Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story), Carrie Coon (Hulu’s Boston Strangler), Merritt Wever (Hulu’s Tiny Beautiful Things), Jennifer Ehle (Prime’s Dead Ringers), Michael Learned (Netflix’s Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story), Judy Greer (HBO’s White House Plumbers), and Anna Paquin (Peacock’s A Friend of the Family).

• Predicted Nominees (7 slots): Maria Bello, Beef (Netflix); Olivia Colman, Great Expecations (Fx); Claire Danes, Fleishman Is in Trouble (Fx); Niecy Nash-Betts, Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix); Lena Headey, White House Plumbers (HBO); Michael Learned, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix); Lily Rabe, Love & Death (Max)
• Alternates: Cherry Jones, Five Days at Memorial (AppleTV+); Merritt Wever, Tiny Beautiful Things (Hulu)

Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Movie: In a curious (and somewhat depressing) twist, nearly all 7 slots here could be filled by actors starring on limited series about serial killers —Paul Walter Hauser and Ray Liotta for AppleTV+’s Black Bird, Domnhall Gleeson for Fx’s The Patient, Richard Jenkins and Rodney Burford Jr. for Netflix’s Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story, and Jesse Plemons for Max’s Love & Death. Strong contenders from shows not about serial killers include Murray Bartlett for Hulu’s Welcome to Chippendales, Liev Schreiber for National Geographic’s A Small Light, Young Mazino for Netflix’s Beef, and Justin Theroux for HBO’s White House Plumbers. And then there’s the possibility that Bowen Yang sneaks in for his scene-stealing comic turn in the Hulu film Fire Island.

• Predicted Nominees (7 slots): Rodney Burford, Jr., Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story (Netflix); Domnhall Gleeson, The Patient (Fx); Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird (AppleTV+); Richard Jenkins, Monster — The Jeffrey Dahmer Story; Ray Liotta, Black Bird (AppleTV+); Young Manzino, Beef (Netflix); Jesse Plemons, Love & Death (Max)
• Alternates: Murray Bartlett, Welcome to Chippendales (Hulu); Liev Schreiber, A Small Light (National Geographic)

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Click here for my recap and review of last year’s Emmys