The 70th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards: Preview and Predictions

Image Copyright: ATAS

When the nominations for the 70th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are announced on Thursday, it’s safe to expect a huge shakeup. Past Emmy winners like Game of Thrones, Curb Your Enthusiasm, Will & Grace, Roseanne, and Arrested Development are returning to the race after periods of ineligibility while nearly a third of last year’s nominees in the series categories will be ineligible (i.e. Veep, House of Cards, Master of None, and Better Call Saul). Plus, the impact of #MeToo and #TimesUp will most surely be felt.

A QUICK PRIMER ON THE EMMYS

• In short, the Emmys are to television what the Oscars are to film, the Tonys are to theater, and the Grammys are to music. (If one individual wins one of each, they are known as an EGOT recipient.)
• This year will mark the 70th consecutive year the ceremony has been held. The first ceremony aired on January 25, 1949. (Fun fact: the legendary Betty White, who continues to act at age 96, scored her first nomination at the 3rd Annual Emmys in 1951.)
• The eligibility period for this year is June 1, 2017 and May 31, 2018. Thus, any series that aired all (or the majority of) its most recent season outside that time frame is ineligible.
• The awards are voted on by members of the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences (ATAS), which currently numbers around 20,000. Voting for the nominees is by the respective branches (e.g., actors vote for the acting categories, directors vote for the directing categories), with the exception of the series awards which all are allowed to vote on. The voting period occurred in June.
• The series nominees are currently limited to 7 and the acting nominees are currently limited to 6. (Nevertheless, the Academy allows for more in the case of ties, which seems to happen more frequently than makes sense statistically).
• The ceremony is split into two, with the “major” categories (Outstanding Series, lead and supporting acting, writing, and directing) announced during the primetime ceremony and several dozen “minor” (mostly technical achievements) being presented at the Creative Arts Emmy ceremony, which takes place the preceding weekend.
• The winners will be voted on in August by special judging panels made up of a subset of ATAS members.
• This year, the Emmys will air on NBC Monday, September 17th at 8pm EST/5pm PST. Saturday Night Live stars Colin Jost and Michael Che will co-host and the show’s legendary creator Lorne Michaels will produce.

PREDICTING THE COMEDY NOMINEES

Promotional Image for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” (Image Copyright: Amazon)

Outstanding Comedy Series: Veep, which was nominated in this category for 6 consecutive years between 2012 and 2017 and won it the past 2 years is ineligible this year. Production on the final season was delayed due to star/producer Julia Louis-Dreyfus’s cancer treatments. Similarly, Aziz Ansari’s acclaimed Netflix series Master of None is ineligible due to the fact that it did not air any new episodes during the eligibility period. In theory, their absence is good news for the remaining 5 series that were nominated last year: ABC’s Black-ish and Modern Family, Netflix’s The Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, Fx’s Atlanta, and HBO’s Silicon Valley. All 5 could very well return, but there are a number of series eligible this year that they didn’t have to face last time. There are 3 red-hot newbies — Amazon’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, Netflix’s GLOW, and HBO’s Barry. There are also 4 revivals/reboots/continuations of shows that have won Emmys in the past, including Netflix’s Arrested Development (eligible for the first time since 2013), HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm (last eligible in 2012), NBC’s Will & Grace (last eligible in 2006), and ABC’s Roseanne (last eligible in 1997). My guess is that a slew of bad press will prevent Roseanne and Arrested Development from getting nominated here (interestingly, it would be Roseanne’s first nomination in the category), Barry won’t have yet gathered the groundswell of support necessary for a nomination here, and Modern Family and Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt will get the boot as a result of increasing age (the former just wrapped Season 9) and a too-brief most recent season (only the first 6 episodes of season 4 are eligible), respectively.

• Predicted Nominees: Atlanta (Fx); Black-ish (ABC); Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); GLOW (Netflix); The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Silicon Valley (HBO); Will & Grace (NBC)

Promotional image for Season Two of “Atlanta” (Image Copyright: Fx)

Outstanding Lead Actress: As mentioned, Julia Louis-Dreyfus is ineligible this year leaving a gaping hole in this category. (Her six consecutive wins in the category broke all sorts of records.) As a tie led to 7 nominees in this category last year, thay leaves 6 eligible to return: Pamela Adlon for Fx’s Better Things, Jane Fonda and Lily Tomlin for Netflix’s Grace and Frankie, Allison Janney for CBS’s Mom, Tracie Ellis Ross for Black-ish, and Ellie Kemper for Netflix’s Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt. Although they each have a shot at scoring a follow-up nomination, they have some formidable competition. Rachel Brosnahan and Alison Brie are likely nominees for their freshman series The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon) and GLOW (Netflix), respectively, and Frankie Shaw could score a nod for her much-buzzed turn on the Showtime freshman SMILF. It’s also very likely that Debra Messing will return to the category (she was nominated 5 times and won once during the original run of Will & Grace). And then there are a number of critically acclaimed actresses that could surprise like Issa Rae (HBO’s Insecure), Rachel Bloom (the CW’s Crazy Ex-Girlfriend), Justine Machado (Netflix’s One Day at a Time), Kristen Bell (NBC’s The Good Place), Anna Faris (CBS’s Mom), and Constance Wu (Fresh Off the Boat). This is a remarkably rich category with some brilliant women bound to be left out.

• Predicted Nominees: Alison Brie, GLOW (Netflix); Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Allison Janney, Mom (CBS); Debra Messing, Will & Grace (NBC); Tracie Ellis Ross, Black-ish (ABC); Lily Tomlin, Grace and Frankie (Netflix)

Outstanding Lead Actor: Of the 6 nominees in this category last year, 2 are ineligible. Amazon did not submit two-time past winner Jeffrey Tambor for his role on Transparent following his recent firing over sexual harassment allegations and, as mentioned, Aziz Ansari’s series didn’t air any new episodes in the eligibility period. That leaves last year’s winner Donald Glover (Fx’s Atlanta) and his fellow nominees Anthony Anderson (ABC’s Black-ish), Zach Galifianakis (Fx’s Baskets), and William H. Macy (Showtime’s Shameless) looking to return. However, they are facing some steep competition from newcomers Bill Hader (the former SNL star broke out in a big way on HBO’s freshman series Barry), Ted Danson (the previous winner for Cheers recently won the Critics Choice Award for his role on NBC’s The Good Place), and Tracy Morgan (who made a triumphant return after a debilitating accident in TBS’s tepidly received The Last O.G.), as well as a quartet of actors previously nominated in this category whose shows returned this year after periods of ineligibility — Larry David of Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO), Eric McCormack of Will & Grace (NBC), John Goodman of Roseanne (ABC), and Jason Bateman of Arrested Development (Netflix). And you can never count out the return of Jim Parsons, who won the Emmy in this category 4 times for his role on CBS’s ongoing ratings behemoth The Big Bang Theory. My guess is that Emmy-favorite Goodman rides a wave of sympathy for the cancellation of his show due to his TV wife and Bateman will be excluded due to his poorly received comments about his co-star Tambor.

• Predicted Nominees: Larry David, Curb Your Enthusiasm (HBO); Donald Glover, Atlanta (Fx); John Goodman, Roseanne (ABC); Bill Hader, Barry (HBO); William H. Macy, Shameless (Showtime); Eric McCormack, Will & Grace (NBC)

The cast of “Will & Grace” on the cover of “Entertainment Weekly” (Image Copyright: NBC/Universal and Ellie Duque Publishing)

Outstanding Supporting Actress: Of last year’s 6 nominees in the category one is ineligible (Anna Chlumsky of HBO’s Veep) and 5 are on shows that had notable declines in buzz and quality over their prior seasons (Kate McKinnon, Vanessa Bayer, and Leslie Jones of NBC’s Saturday Night Live and Judith Light and Kathryn Hahn of Amazon’s Transparent). I expect only 2–3 of them to return (probably McKinnon and Jones, maybe Light), giving this category the biggest turnover of nomination morning. Likely to flesh out the category are Megan Mullally (she scored 7 nominations and 2 wins during Will & Grace’s original NBC run) and Laurie Metcalf (she won all 3 trophies she was nominated for during Roseanne’s original ABC run). Metcalf’s costar Sara Gilbert and Arrested Development’s Jessica Walter are also possibilities; both are gifted actresses whose sympathy from the industry got boosted by the bad behavior of their costars. But there is also a host of fresh blood awaiting their turn. These include Alex Borstein (The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Zazie Beetz (Atlanta), Sarah Goldberg (Barry), Betty Gilpin (GLOW), and Rosie O’Donnell (SMILF). You can also never count out the return of the beloved Jane Krakowski (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) or Julie Bowen (Modern Family). It’s also very possible that we will see EGOT recipient/Hollywood legend Rita Moreno score a nomination for her role on Netflix’s critically adored reboot of One Day at a Time.

• Predicted Nominees: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon); Leslie Jones, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Laurie Metcalf, Roseanne (ABC); Rita Moreno, One Day at a Time (Netflix); Megan Mullally, Will & Grace (NBC)

Outstanding Supporting Actor: Of last year’s 6 nominees only Tony Hale and Matt Walsh of Veep are ineligible. The other 4 — Alec Baldwin (Saturday Night Live), Louie Anderson (Baskets), Ty Burrell (Modern Family), and Tituss Burgess (Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt) — all have a great shot at returning. Their fiercest competition will be from Sean Hayes (who was nominated for 7 Emmys and won 1 during the original run of Will & Grace), Tony Shalhoub (the 3-time winner for Monk co-starred on The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel), Henry Winkler (the Happy Days veteran made an acclaimed return in Barry), Brian Tyree Henry (who broke out on this season of Atlanta), and Marc Maron (the male highlight of GLOW). You can also never count out a surprise appearance by a member of the Modern Family, Silicon Valley, or Arrested Development ensembles (most likely: Jesse Tyler Ferguson, Kumail Nanjiani, and Will Arnett, respectively).

• Predicted Nominees: Louie Anderson, Baskets (Fx); Alec Baldwin, Saturday Night Live (NBC); Tituss Burgess, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt (Netflix); Sean Hayes, Will & Grace (NBC); Bryan Tyree Henry, Atlanta (Fx); Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (Amazon)

PREDICTING THE DRAMA NOMINEES

Promotional Image for “This is Us” (Image Copyright: NBC/Universal)

Outstanding Drama Series: The drama categories underwent an unprecedented overhaul last year due to the ineligibility of Game of Thrones (which won the top award in 2015 and 2016) and the arrival of 5 red hot freshmen — Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale, Netflix’s The Crown and Stranger Things, NBC’s This is Us, and HBO’s Westworld. This year will involve a substantial shift as well with Game of Thrones returning to the fray and last year’s two returning nominees being ineligible (neither Netflix’s House of Cards or AMC’s Better Call Saul aired new episodes during the eligibility period). My guess is all 5 make it back, with Westworld being the shakiest (its second season was divisive and HBO’s attention has been focused on Game of Thrones). For the remaining 1–2 slots, the most likely candidates are Fx’s The Americans (for its final season) and BBC America’s Killing Eve (which broke out at exactly the right time). Anything outside these 8 shows would be a big surprise, but a trio of Showtime dramas — Homeland, Ray Donovan, and The Chi — have an outside shot, as does ABC’s ratings smash The Good Doctor and HBO’s acclaimed The Deuce.

• Predicted Nominees: The Americans (Fx); The Crown (Netflix); Game of Thrones (HBO); The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Stranger Things (Netflix); This is Us (NBC); Westworld (HBO)

Lena Headey and Nicolaj Coster-Waldau in “Game of Thrones” (Image Copyright: HBO)

Outstanding Lead Actress: This fully stocked category has 5 of last year’s 6 nominees eligible and making a strong case for their return with top-notch work (only Robin Wright of House of Cards is ineligible). Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid’s Tale), Claire Foy (The Crown), and Keri Russell (The Americans) seem like strong bets, with Evan Rachel Wood (Westworld) and Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder) more vulnerable. Among the host of actresses competing for the 1–3 open slots are Sandra Oh and Jodie Comer of Killing Eve, Christine Baranski of CBS All Access’s The Good Fight, Mandy Moore of This is Us, Maggie Gyllenhaal of The Deuce, Emmy favorite Laura Linney of Netflix’s Ozark, and previous winners Claire Danes for Homeland and Tatiana Maslany for BBC America’s Orphan Black. Oh, and then there’s the Mother of Dragons herself, as Emilia Clarke has been promoted to the lead category for Game of Thrones after years in supporting.

• Predicted Nominees: Christine Baranski, The Good Fight (CBS All Access); Emilia Clarke, Game of Thrones (HBO); Claire Foy, The Crown (Netflix); Elisabeth Moss, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Sandra Oh, Killing Eve (BBC America); Keri Russell, The Americans (Fx)

Outstanding Lead Actor: A trio of last year’s 7 nominees (there was a tie) are ineligible — Kevin Spacey and Bob Odenkirk’s series didn’t air new episodes during the eligibility period and Anthony Hopkins was barely featured in the second season of Westworld. There is the possibility that all 4 of last year’s remaining nominees could return — Sterling K. Brown and Milo Ventimiglia of NBC’s This is Us, Liev Schreiber of Showtime’s Ray Donovan, and Matthew Rhys of Fx’s The Americans. Their chief competition will come from Kit Harrington (elevated to lead for Game of Thrones just like co-star Clarke), Freddie Highmore (who headlined ABC’s breakout hit The Good Doctor), Jason Bateman (Netflix’s Ozark), Donald Sutherland (who was chilling as J. Paul Getty on Fx’s Trust), Matt Smith (Prince Phillip on Netflix’s The Crown), and a pair of Westworld stars who were bumped from supporting to lead — Jeffrey Wright and Ed Harris. There are also outside shots for Rami Malek (who won in the past for USA’s Mr. Robot) and James Franco (whose tour-de-force performance on HBO’s The Deuce will likely be overlooked given his sexual harassment allegations).

• Predicted Nominees: Sterling K. Brown, This is Us (NBC); Kit Harrington, Game of Thrones (HBO); Freddie Highmore, The Good Doctor (ABC); Matthew Rhys, The Americans (Fx); Milo Ventimiglia, This is Us (NBC); Jeffrey Wright, Westworld (HBO)

Elisabeth Moss in “The Handmaid’s Tale” (Image Copyright: Hulu)

Outstanding Supporting Actress: Of last year’s nominees, only Samira Wiley of Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale is ineligible (she didn’t appear in enough episodes to qualify in this category). Each of the rest — Ann Dowd (The Handmaid’s Tale), Millie Bobby Brown (Stranger Things), Chrissy Metz (This is Us), Thandie Newton (Westworld), and Uzo Aduba (Netflix’s Orange is the New Black) — have a good shot at returning. My guess is that Newton and Aduba are most vulnerable due to diminishing interest in their shows and that the remaining 3 slots will go to Lena Headey (a past nominee for Game of Thrones), Alexis Bledel (who is promoted to this category after winning in the guest actress category for The Handmaid’s Tale last year), and Vanessa Kirby (for her work as Princess Margaret on Netflix’s The Crown). However, we could also see Sophie Turner or Maisie Williams get in for Game of Thrones, Yvonne Strahovski break through for The Handmaid’s Tale, or two-time Oscar winner Hilary Swank sneak in for her performance as Gail Getty on Fx’s The Trust.

• Predicted Nominees: Alexis Bledel, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Millie Bobby Brown, Stranger Things (Netflix); Ann Dowd, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); Lena Headey, Game of Thrones (HBO); Vanessa Kirby, The Crown (Netflix); Chrissy Metz, This is Us (NBC)

Outstanding Supporting Actor: Last year’s winner John Lithgow is ineligible this year as his Winston Churchill only made a sole appearance on The Crown’s second season. Likewise Jonathan Banks and Michael Kelly’s series (Better Call Saul and House of Cards) are ineligible. A fourth nominee in the category is also ineligible due to the fact that he was promoted to lead (Jeffrey Wright). That leaves David Harbour (Stranger Things), Ron Cephas Jones (This is Us), and Mandy Pantinkin (Homeland) eligible to return. They will face competition from Peter Dinklage and Nikolaj Coster-Waldau for Game of Thrones (the former has received 6 prior nominations, the latter has never been nominated), Joseph Fiennes and Max Minghella for The Handmaid’s Tale (although both were eligible last year and failed to break through), Jon Voight for Ray Donovan (although his far-right politics make him a prickly figure in Hollywood), Justin Hartley for This is Us, and Brendan Fraser for his scenery-chewing turn on Trust.

• Predicted Nominees: Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Game of Thrones (HBO); Peter Dinklage, Game of Thrones (HBO); Joseph Fiennes, The Handmaid’s Tale (Hulu); David Harbour, Stranger Things (Netflix); Justin Hartley, This is Us (NBC); Mandy Pantinkin, Homeland (Showtime)

***

• In sum, expect a huge shakeup of the nominees, some shocking snubs, and a celebration of what an amazing year it was for women in the medium (notice how much more competitive the lead and supporting actress categories are than their male counterparts).
• Check back tomorrow afternoon, when I will be publishing my reactions to the nominees.
• Note: I did not include predictions for the Limited Series/TV Movie, Variety Sketch/Talk Series, and Reality Competition/Non-Competition Series categories in the above due to lack of expertise regarding this year’s crop of nominees.