What to Expect at the 70th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards
On Monday, September 17th the Academy of Television Arts and Sciences will announce their picks for the best that television had to offer in the 2017–2018 season. Picking the best in television is increasingly becoming a thankless and impossible task, given the ever-increasing amount of high quality offerings available across a number of ever-diversifying platforms. Nevertheless, prior winners, the nominations announced in July, and other award shows from earlier in the year give us some big clues about who is likely to prevail in the top categories. But before I get into my predictions in the major categories, here are a few things to expect from the ceremony itself:
- SNL. LOTS of SNL. For the big 70th anniversary — and in an attempt to reverse the trend of declining ratings — NBC brought in Saturday Night Live creator Lorne Michaels to produce the show. He selected “Weekend Update” co-anchors Colin Jost and Michael Che to do hosting duties, a curious selection when the #TimesUp movement is calling for more attention to women in the industry and SNL has more than their share of talented women that would have been great hosting options. For better or worse, expect lots of SNL-related shtick, including appearances by former SNL cast members
- Honoring Diversity. This year’s class of acting nominees is one of (if not the) most racially and ethnically diverse group ever. I am expecting a lot of acknowledgement of this, especially after the buzz that was generated at the Creative Arts Emmys last week (see note below) when all four guest acting trophies went to black actors for the first time (Ron Cephas Jones for NBC’s This is Us, Samira Wiley for Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale, Tiffany Haddish for NBC’s Saturday Night Live, and Katt Williams for Fx’s Atlanta).
- Saluting Television History. Award shows love honoring themselves — especially on their anniversaries — so expect references to and clips from the previous 69 Emmy ceremonies and the series they have honored. Also expect a reference to last week’s historic win for NBC’s live production of Jesus Christ Superstar, which made John Legend, Tim Rice, and Andrew Lloyd Weber the 13th, 14th, and 15th individuals ever to win an Emmy, an Oscar, a Grammy, and a Tony.
- Lots of Complaining about the Change in Scheduling. The awards were moved to a Monday this year to avoid a schedule conflict with Sunday Night Football. This will make it hard for west-coasters to watch live (as it will start at 5pm) and generally people don’t like change so I expect lots of grousing.
- Note: Winners in a number of minor categories (mostly technical, but some notable) were announced in a pair of ceremonies last weekend dubbed the Creative Arts Emmys.
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — DRAMA
Outstanding Drama Series: This fully stacked category contains five series that are eligible for their second seasons — Netflix’s Stranger Things and The Crown, Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale, HBO’s Westworld, and NBC’s This is Us. The category is rounded out by two long-running shows: HBO’s Game of Thrones (eligible for its seventh season, which aired in the summer of 2017) and Fx’s The Americans (eligible for its sixth and final season, which recently concluded). Stranger Things and Westworld undoubtedly have their share of die-hard supporters but are likely a hard sell for some Academy members due to their heavy sci-fi leanings. The Crown and This is Us are quieter and more sensitive dramas with their fair share of passionate supporters, but — like Stranger Things and Westworld — were unable to win the top prize in their first seasons, despite them garnering greater buzz than their second. Thus that leaves us with three possibilities. The Americans has an outside shot of winning, given that the retiring series has been hailed by many critics as one of the greatest dramatic series of all time and has yet to win a major Emmy. However, it seems unlikely to me that a sufficient subset of the Academy discovered it in the past year to go from barely nominating it to giving it the top prize. The real race appears to be between 2017’s winner The Handmaid’s Tale and 2015 and 2016’s winner Game of Thrones. This is the first time they have gone head-to-head (since Game of Thrones was ineligible last year). Neither had their best season, but both produced brilliant episodes and generated enormous amounts of buzz. I give the slight edge to Game of Thrones as I imagine that the flaws of its long-concluded seventh season will be less fresh in voters’ minds than the missteps of The Handmaid’s Tale’s recently wrapped set of episodes (the fact that the finale ended so divisively certainty doesn’t help). Predicted Winner: Game of Thrones Most Likely to Upset: The Handmaid’s Tale
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series: The fact that such superb actresses as Christine Baranski (The Good Fight), Viola Davis (How to Get Away with Murder), Laura Linney (Ozark), Emilia Clarke (Game of Thrones), Maggie Gyllenhaal (The Deuce), and Claire Danes (Homeland) could not even muster a nomination this year underscores that this is the most competitive category of the night. Tatiana Maslaney was a surprise (and well-deserved) winner for BBC America’s Orphan Black during its last eligible season in 2016, but a repeat win seems unlikely given how long ago the show wrapped and the lack of love for it in other categories. In contrast, Evan Rachel Wood’s series (HBO’s Westworld) is represented in just about every category imaginable. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that her (admittedly impressive) performance can rise to the top in this tight race full of more relatable characters. Ditto for Claire Foy, whose understated brilliance as Queen Elizabeth II in Netflix’s The Crown would get my vote. In a less competitive year, Keri Russell of Fx’s The Americans would be a hands-down winner. She is an actress with a long history of being critically acclaimed but under-appreciated by award-granting bodies who gives a career best performance in her show’s final season. However, she has to face off against Sandra Oh, who became the first Asian-American woman ever nominated in this category for the heavily buzzed BBC America thriller Killing Eve, and Elisabeth Moss, who won the award last year and gave a spellbinding and gut-wrenching performance on the second season of Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale. I’m reluctantly predicting Moss to repeat despite her heavy competition and what I thought was a less than stellar episode submission. Predicted Winner: Elisabeth Moss Most Likely to Upset: Sandra Oh
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Drama Series: Far less competitive than its female counterpart, this category finds its 6 nominees coming from only 4 shows. Jason Bateman’s series (Netflix’s Ozark) was received with mixed reviews and few nominations, suggesting a lack of support for the win. HBO’s Westworld promoted Jeffrey Wright and Ed Harris from supporting to lead this year and both reaped nominations. My guess is that neither will be particularly competitive given that their roles aren’t traditional Emmy bait and they may split votes from the minority of Academy members who were willing to make it through the show’s second season. NBC’s This is Us saw Milo Ventimiglia and last year’s winner Sterling K. Brown repeat in this category and Brown may very well win again. His greatest competition comes from Matthew Rhys of Fx’s The Americans. He’s a terrific and under-appreciated actor who just may prove victorious this year as this is the perfect category to give the show some high-profile love in its final year. Predicted Winner: Sterling K. Brown Most Likely to Upset: Matthew Rhys
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Drama Series: Another category jam-packed with talent, this one had 7 nominations instead of the traditional 6 due to a tie in the voting process. And all of them are utterly fantastic. Millie Bobby Brown continues to show wisdom and talent beyond her years in Netflix’s Stranger Things. Lena Headey continued to be the most terrifying and human thing in all of Westeros on HBO’s Game of Thrones. Thandie Newton continues to bring both a jagged edge and a warm heart to HBO’s Westworld. Vanessa Kirby gave a spectacularly nuanced performance as the deeply wounded and erratic Princess Margaret on Netflix’s The Crown. The final three hail from Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale. This includes last year’s winner in this category Ann Dowd and last year’s winner in the Guest Actress category Alexis Bledel (who was promoted to series regular this year), who both gave terrific performances again this season. But I think both of them (as well as the other 4) will fall to first-time nominee Yvonne Strahovski whose exceptional work as the Commander’s conflicted wife was the highlight of the show’s second season. Predicted Winner: Yvonne Strahovski Most Likely to Upset: Vanessa Kirby
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Drama Series: Parallel to how things play out in the lead acting categories, the male supporting actor category is decidedly weaker than its female counterpart. In my opinion (and I know I’m not alone), Commander Waterford is the most problematic aspect of Hulu’s The Handmaid’s Tale, which makes it unlikely that his portrayer (Joseph Fiennes, who didn’t even garner a nomination last year) will emerge victorious. Mandy Pantinkin’s nuanced performance on Showtime’s Homeland should have yielded him at least one trophy in this category by now, but if they haven’t given it to him yet, it seems unlikely that they will now. Nikolaj Coster-Waldau broke through for the first time for HBO’s Game of Thrones but there is nothing particularly Emmy worthy about the material he had to work this season. The same is true for his co-star Peter Dinklage, but he has won twice before in this category (including once for a season in which he had very little to do) and cannot be ruled out. Matt Smith went from one-note crybaby to multifaceted adult as Prince Phillip in the second season of The Crown and is well-liked in the industry due to his stint as Doctor Who. Most pundits are predicting David Harbour for his terrific work on Stranger Things, but I just don’t see that show yielding a major acting win — at least not this year. Thus I am diverging from the pack and betting that this is a race between Smith and Dinklage, with voters lazily giving it to Dinklage again. I hope I’m wrong. Predicted Winner: Peter Dinklage Most Likely to Upset: Matt Smith
Outstanding Writing in a Drama Series: Superb episodes from The Americans, The Handmaid’s Tale, Killing Eve, The Crown, Game of Thrones, and Stranger Things are nominated here and frankly all of them would make decent winners. However, I think that the Academy will give it to the universally acclaimed series finale of The Americans. Predicted Winner: “S.T.A.R.T.,” The Americans Most Likely to Upset: “June,” The Handmaid’s Tale
Outstanding Directing in a Drama Series: In such a competitive drama landscape, the presence of two episodes from Netflix’s tepidly received Ozark here is a real head scratcher. Don’t expect either of them to win. The episode submitted by The Crown was one of its most technically accomplished but not its most dramatically satisfying. The second season finale of Stranger Things was very worthy of this award, but will likely be deemed too slight compared to its counterparts. That leaves two episodes of Game of Thrones versus one from The Handmaid’s Tale. The latter has the edge just by virtue of the fact that it doesn’t have to compete with itself, but the ambition and visual artistry of both Game of Thones episodes are likely to attract their share of admirers. Predicted Winner: “After,” The Handmaid’s Tale Most Likely to Upset: “Beyond the Wall,” Game of Thrones
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — COMEDY SERIES
Outstanding Comedy Series: There may be 8 nominees instead of 7 due to tie, but really this category comes down to 2 real contenders. Netflix’s Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt and HBO’s Silicon Valley had abbreviated seasons that didn’t live up to their previous highs; the return of HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm had its moments but wasn’t a home run; Netflix’s GLOW didn’t get the across-the-board love from Emmy voters that was expected; ABC’s Black-ish failed to win a major Emmy in its first three seasons; and HBO’s Barry was a much bigger hit with the Academy than expected but likely has a much better shot in the acting categories. That makes it a race between the second season of Fx’s Atlanta and the first season of Amazon’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel. The former could win after a strong showing at last year’s ceremony (where it lost this category to HBO’s Veep, which is ineligible this year), but my money is on the latter as it is more accessible to the majority of voters and has already won a truckload of awards. Predicted Winner: The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Most Likely to Upset: Atlanta
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series: The lack of any additional major nominations for Netflix’s Grace and Frankie, HBO’s Insecure, and Fx’s Better Things make wins for the immensely talented Lily Tomlin, Issa Rae, and Pamela Adlon longshots at best. The same should be true for Allison Janney of CBS’s Mom, but traditional rules don’t apply to the 7-time Emmy winner (who has won twice for this role in the supporting category and won an Oscar earlier this year). You can never count her out but this seems like a race between Rachel Brosnahan, who broke out in a big way this year and already won a Golden Globe for her role on Amazon’s The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, and Tracee Ellis Ross, whose terrific work on ABC’s Black-ish deserves recognition (not to mention the fact that she would be the first black woman to win this award in nearly 40 years). I give the edge to Brosnahan, whose series has more buzz and industry support at the moment. Predicted Winner: Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Most Likely to Upset: Tracee Ellis Ross, Black-ish
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series: It has always been widely assumed that Larry Davis is playing a thinly veiled version of himself on HBO’s Curb Your Enthusiasm and that little acting is involved. William H. Macy won the SAG award for Showtime’s Shameless this year, but the show has never clicked with the Academy. Anthony Anderson’s status as a contender for ABC’s Black-ish was likely hindered by allegations of violence by a woman that popped up in the news during the voting period. TV legend Ted Danson’s nomination for NBC’s acclaimed comedy The Good Place follows his recent Critics’ Choice Award win, but the lack of love for his show in other categories hurts his chances. That leaves last year’s winner Donald Glover for Fx’s Atlanta and this year’s breakthrough Bill Hader for HBO’s Barry. They are neck-and-neck, but I give the slight edge to a Glover repeat given his banner year involving an acclaimed big-screen performance as Lando Calrissian in Solo and a #1 hit on the Billboard charts with “This is America.” Predicted Winner: Donald Glover, Atlanta Most Likely to Upset: Bill Hader, Barry
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series: This category was supposed to have 6 nominees but ended up with 8 due to ties. Three of them hail from NBC’s Saturday Night Live (which is allowed to compete in the comedy categories for acting despite the fact that it is a variety sketch series). Aidy Bryant and Leslie Jones don’t have much of a chance, but Kate McKinnon could very well nab her third trophy in a row. The remaining 5 nominees include 2 prior winners that scored the only major nominations for the heavily buzzed revivals of their legendary series (3-time past winner Laurie Metcalf of ABC’s Roseanne and 2-time past winner Megan Mullally of NBC’s Will & Grace) and 3 from shows in their first two years (Zazie Beetz of Fx’s Atlanta, Betty Gilpin of Netflix’s GLOW, and Alex Borstein of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel). I expect this to be a race between Bostein (who I give the slight edge) and McKinnon (who you can never rule out), but Mullally could spoil. She submitted “Rosario’s Quinceanara,” the episode where her beloved long-time maid dies. It is a powerhouse of a performance that will be hard for any Emmy voter who watches the submitted episodes to ignore. Predicted Winner: Alex Borstein, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Most Likely to Upset: Kate McKinnon, Saturday Night Live
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series: Alec Baldwin could repeat for his appearances as Donald Trump on NBC’s Saturday Night Live, but he had much less screen time and buzz this year — not to mention the fact that many complained his caricature got stale. His co-star Kenan Thompson got a deserved first nomination, but he seems unlikely to win. Louie Anderson could also win a second trophy for his turn as Zach Galifianakis’s mother on Fx’s bizarre Baskets, but the lack of love for the show in other categories hurts his chances. Bryan Tyree Henry broke out big on Fx’s Atlanta and could win, as could Tituss Burgess, whose performance on Netflix’s Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt is pure genius and should have at least won Emmy by now. But this race is likely between Tony Shalhoub of Amazon’s Marvelous Mrs. Maisel (he is beloved by the Academy with three prior wins for USA’s Monk) and Henry Winkler for HBO’s Barry (the legendary Happy Days star has never won an Emmy and made a big splash with his performance here). My bet is on Winkler. Predicted Winner: Henry Winkler, Barry Most Likely to Upset: Tony Shalhoub, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Outstanding Writing in a Comedy Series: Most felt that this was not Silicon Valley’s strongest season and both Atlanta and Barry have two episodes in contention, which likely leads to some vote splitting. That paves the way for the pilot of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, which would have likely taken this category in even a much more competitive year. Predicted Winner: “Pilot,” The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Most Likely to Upset: “Alligator Man,” Atlanta
Outstanding Directing in a Comedy Series: The Big Bang Theory’s nominated episode was a late addition due to an overlooked technicality and seems highly unlikely to win, as does Silicon Valley for the reasons described above. Atlanta has 2 episodes in contention here, which is usually a challenge but there is a clear favorite among the 2. And then there’s the pilots of The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel, GLOW, and Barry. My bet is on Maisel, but Atlanta could definitely repeat here. Predicted Winner: “Pilot,” The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel Most Likely to Upset: “Teddy Perkins,” Atlanta
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — LIMITED SERIES
Outstanding Limited Series: Two of the nominees received critical reception that was mixed at best and seem unlikely to be real contenders — TNT’s The Alienist and National Geographic’s Genius: Picasso. Showtime’s Patrick Melrose and Netflix’s Godless garnered solid acclaim and decent buzz, but neither could touch the second installment of Fx’s American Crime Story, The Assassination of Gianni Versace. Predicted Winner: Assassination of Gianni Versace Most Likely to Upset: Godless
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series: Edie Falco (NBC’s The Menendez Murders), Sarah Paulson (Fx’s American Horror Story: Cult), and Regina King (Netflix’s Seven Seconds) are all previous winners that the Academy adores, but none of the projects they are nominated for garnered much excitement. Jessica Biel and Michelle Dockery garnered respect for playing against type in USA’s The Sinner and Netflix’s Godless, respectively, but neither packed the punch of Laura Dern as a sexual abuse survivor in HBO’s The Tale. Predicted Winner: Laura Dern, The Tale Most Likely to Upset: Michelle Dockery, Godless
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series: The failure of Amazon’s The Looming Tower and National Geographic’s Genius: Picasso to win over critics and audiences dash the hopes of Antonio Banderas and Jeff Daniels, respectively. The gifted Jesse Plemons is bound to win an Emmy someday, but probably not for the nominated episode of Netflix’s Black Mirror (which won the award for Outstanding Made for Television Movie at the Creative Arts Emmys last weekend). John Legend is a real contender as NBC’s live production of Jesus Christ Superstar was widely acclaimed and many were surely excited to make him the first black man to receive an EGOT. But this race is probably down between Benedict Cumberbatch for Showtime’s Patrick Melrose and Darren Criss for Fx’s Versace. The former performance was excellent, but the latter was revelatory. Predicted Winner: Darren Criss, Assassination of Gianni Versace Most Likely to Upset: Benedict Cumberbatch, Patrick Melrose
Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series: Sara Bareilles (NBC’s Jesus Christ Superstar), Adina Porter (Fx’s American Horror Story: Cult), and Letitia Wright (Netflix’s Black Mirror) gave fine performances but seem unlikely to garner the necessary support. And although Merritt Wever (of Netflix’s Godless) can never be counted out after her surprise win for Nurse Jackie in 2013, this looks like it’s a race between two supporting characters from Fx’s Versace who never share a scene together. Penelope Cruz’s searing performance as fashion designer Donatella Versace is likely to add an Emmy to her crowded trophy case (which includes an Oscar for Best Supporting Actress), but there’s a part of me that would rather see television veteran Judith Light get a long-overdue win for her wrenching performance as a grieving widow. Predicted Winner: Penelope Cruz, Assassination of Gianni Versace Most Likely to Upset: Judith Light, Assassination of Gianni Versace
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series: Acclaimed character actors John Leguizamo (Paramount Network’s Waco) and Michael Stuhlbarg (Amazon’s The Looming Tower) turned in solid work as usual, but the lack of love for their shows in other categories make a win here unlikely. Finn Wittrock, Edgar Ramirez, and Ricky Martin all turned in terrific work in Fx’s Versace but none got the type of material that’s usually required to score an Emmy. Thus, this is a race between Brandon Victor Dixon, the Broadway star whose role in NBC’s live production of Jesus Christ Superstar was jaw-dropping, and Jeff Daniels, whose performance in Netflix’s Godless was widely acclaimed. My bet is on Daniels, whose show scored a slew of nominations and has won in the past for HBO’s The Newsroom. Predicted Winner: Jeff Daniels, Godless Most Likely to Upset: Brandon Victor Dixon, Jesus Christ Superstar
Outstanding Writing in a Limited Series: The lack of series and acting nominations does not bode well for Showtime’s Twin Peaks revival and Netflix’s darkly comic American Vandal in this category. Netflix’s Godless, Showtime’s Patrick Melrose, and especially Fx’s Versace all have good shots here, but there is a solid chance this will go to the “USS Callister” episode of Netflix’s Black Mirror. Predicted Winner: USS Callister: Black Mirror Most Likely to Upset: Assassination of Gianni Versace
Outstanding Directing in a Limited Series: Amazon’s The Looming Tower, HBO’s Paterno, and Showtime’s Twin Peaks significantly underwhelmed in the nominations, making wins here unlikely. Many voters may wonder why NBC’s Jesus Christ Superstar is competing here and not in a variety category. And while Netflix’s Godless and Showtime’s Patrick Melrose, have a decent shot at this award, neither can touch the artistry of Fx’s Versace. Predicted Winner: Assassination of Gianni Versace Most Likely to Upset: Godless
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WINNER PREDICTIONS — REALITY AND VARIETY SERIES
Outstanding Reality-Competition Program: A 4th consecutive win for NBC’s The Voice cannot be ruled out, but it really seems like this was a banner year for VH1’s RuPaul’s Drag. Predicted Winner: RuPaul’s Drag Race Most Likely to Upset: The Voice
Outstanding Variety Talk Series: Jimmy Kimmel, James Corden, Trevor Noah, and Stephen Colbert continue to do terrific work in late night, but this looks like a race between two acclaimed shows that generated more than their share of controversy this year — HBO’s Last Week Tonight with John Oliver and TBS’s Full Frontal with Samantha Bee. Predicted Winner: Last Week Tonight with John Oliver Most Likely to Upset: Full Frontal with Samantha Bee
Outstanding Variety Sketch Series: Given the Academy’s over-the-top love for NBC’s Saturday Night Live it seems unthinkable that anything else could win. In the extremely unlikely event that anything else wins, it would be IFC’s Portlandia for its final season. Predicted Winner: Saturday Night Live Most Likely to Upset: Portlandia
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