The Case for Hope
An Evaluation of How the Red Bulls Might Not Break Our Hearts
The past week has been a restless one for Red Bulls fans. We’re an anxious bunch normally, and for good reason. But myriad factors have made this week worse than the others. For one, there wasn’t even a game to look forward to on the weekend, only the faraway abyss of November 23 lurking in the seemingly distant future. Moreover, we’re in what feels like unchartered territory. RBNY just won a playoff series. Against DC United. They even played well. And now we’re just one series away from MLS Cup. This after a frustration-punctuated regular season that, even though it trended upward at the end, still included particularly worrying late season drubbings at the hands of Los Angeles and Columbus.
And now, this team — this team that this year couldn’t beat Chivas USA, Colorado, the Cosmos, or CD FAS — is into the last four, a group that includes three truly elite teams in the Galaxy, Sounders, and Revolution. So, with several more painstaking days of waiting, there is nothing better for Red Bulls fans to do but to bash NYCFC’s new jerseys — excuse me, “kits” — and obsess about how it is Petke and co. might actually pull this off and get us to Seattle or LA on December 7. Several others have beaten me to the punch on that first task, so I will endeavor to address the second.
On the bright side, the Red Bulls have beaten the Revolution in both of their encounters this year. But — as every RBNY-hating, BWP-bashing, New Jersey-is-not-New York-brandishing soccer journo is bound to point out — those results came before the arrival of one Jermaine Jones and the current remarkable run of form in which New England has won 11 of its past 13 games. Nevertheless, these games offer valuable experience for the Red Bulls, offering helpful clues for how the Revs can indeed be beaten.
The first game gives a perfect blueprint for a second leg game plan, especially if the Red Bulls go into that game with a lead and do not need a road goal. The pairing of Eric Alexander and Ibrahim Sekagya foreshadowed the success the Red Bulls would find with a deep-lying double pivot at centermid by gumming up the middle. Lee Nguyen’s passing diagram at left shows the extent to which Sekagya and Alexander were able to keep the Revs’ MVP candidate out of Zone 14 (the central area above the penalty area) and prevent him from generating chances in the final third. After an early set piece goal, RBNY was able to sit deep and counterattack, with Peguy Luyindula dropping from his forward position to apply constant pressure on the Revs’ #6 in this game, Andy Dorman, the closest the Red Bulls ever came to resembling a 4–2–3–1 until Petke’s September switch to the new formation.
The second meeting made for a somewhat more dramatic story. After going down a goal and a man in the first half, Petke made a drastic change, moving to a midfield diamond with one forward. From my piece on the game in August, “The ironic part about this change was that the Red Bulls played with two more men in central midfield than in the first half, despite playing with one less player.” While the triumvirate of Scott Caldwell, Lee Nguyen, and Kelyn Rowe owned the middle in the first half, they were overrun in the second. This gambit dared the Revolution to attack the Red Bulls’ flanks, where the Revs’ wingers and fullbacks could have easily generated 2 v. 1's given their man advantage and RBNY’s commitment of all of its midfield to the center of the pitch. However, as the pass diagram for New England’s fullbacks Kevin Alston (30) and Andrew Farrell (2) displays, they did not overlap whatsoever into the attacking third, and did not punish RBNY for this weakness:
Now, there is the little problem of the changes the Revs have made since that 2–1 loss. In response to the above problem, Chris Tierney has replaced Kevin Alston at left back, and will overlap with somewhat more regularity. Additionally, Kelyn Rowe has been pushed wide while Jermaine Jones has come in to replace rookie Steve Neumann in what one might call a minor upgrade. Tactically, the 4–1–4–1 has become more of a 4–2–3–1, with Jones dropping deeper alongside Caldwell and Nguyen playing as an outright number 10. Jay Heaps’ men also happen to be playing the best soccer of any team in the league at the moment, a claim supported by their 7–3 aggregate annihilation of a strong Columbus team.
The Red Bulls cannot afford to be overmatched in the middle of the field as they were in the first half of their second match against the Revs. RBNY’s switch to a 4–2–3–1 gives them an extra man there compared to the 4–4–2 trotted out last meeting, which should help considerably. However, the Revs’ trio of Caldwell, Jones, and Nguyen offers more with respect to defensive mobility, ball switching, and creative playmaking than Dax, Alexander, and Peguy. However, RBNY will also have Thierry Henry tucking in from the left and sitting in the middle. Increasingly since the switch to the 4–2–3–1, Henry has sat relatively deep and narrow, which has allowed him to tend to his defensive responsibilities and endowed him with the freedom to spray the ball across the field or to Roy Miller on the overlap. Henry’s pass map from the first leg against DC United shows his preferred place to roam, pinched in from the left at the top of the attacking third:
The Revolution’s left winger, Kelyn Rowe, will similarly tuck in and look to combine with Jones and Nguyen. In the first half against the Crew, this dragged the Columbus right back Eric Gehrig into the middle along with him, given the lack of threat offerred by New England’s left back Chris Tierney on the overlap. If Heaps keeps Rowe on the left — he temporarily switched Teal Bunbury to the left and Rowe to the right against Columbus — then Eckersley or one of the center backs will have to step into the midfield to break up New England’s deadly combination play.
With each team clogging the center of the pitch, it’s a tossup predicting who will own the middle, if anyone does at all. One team may combine well and run the game, or the numbers in this area may clog up space and lead to stalemate, or perhaps a moment of genius from Nguyen or Henry or Jones or Luyindula will determine the outcome of the game. At the ends of the field, Charlie Davies and Bradley Wright-Phillips will push high up the pitch to create space for the midfielders behind them, and should each find two or three good chances to score.
But where I think the game will be decided is in the two one-v-one battles between each team’s right midfielder and left back. In the second Revs-Red Bulls encounter, both of RBNY’s goals came from these matchups. Ambroise Oyongo took on a tracking-back Teal Bunbury to create the first, while Lloyd Sam’s trickery on the right gave him the space and time to create a golden chance for BWP. On the flip side, Oyongo shut down the Revs right winger, so much so that Bunbury lashed out with an elbow to Oyongo’s face late in the game, while Lloyd Sam stifled any attempts from Kevin Alston to foray into the attack.
This time around, Jones and Nguyen will be looking to spring Bunbury out wide and Tierney on the overlap, which will require Sam to potentially track back and Oyongo to play smart given Bunbury’s aerial advantage. On the other side of the ball, Sam will need to be a threat for RBNY as he was throughout the DC series — particularly in the first leg when he tore apart Taylor Kemp — to pin Tierney in his own end and Oyongo to overlap beyond Henry given Bunbury’s defensive deficiencies. If congestion in the center of the pitch stifles both teams’ attacking spark, the Bunbury-Oyongo and Sam-Tierney individual matchups may tip the balance of the match and of the series.
New England may very well run away with this series, just as they did in the Eastern conference semis. Thierry Henry may be isolated and pushed onto an island on the left wing. Jermaine Jones, Kelyn Rowe, and Lee Nguyen may combine and switch the field well enough to exert full control over the game. Ibrahim Sekagya may just give the ball to Charlie Davies at the top of the 18. But if the Red Bulls can bring the game to at least a stalemate in the middle of the field, and win key battles out wide, then it stands a chance to go to its second ever MLS Cup.
Do I dare feel hope? The same hope that pulsated throughout Red Bull Arena following that glorious win over Chicago last year only to be shattered a week later, the same hope that a John Wolyniec goal brought for a few brief shining moments only to be crushed by a thumping Chad Marshall header, the same hope that heroes like Guevara, Angel, Mathis, and Henry have inspired only to be undone by the failures of stars from Matthaus to Reyna to Marquez? When Dom Dwyer scored in the 53rd minute of the knockout round, I dared not hope. Even when the Red Bulls dominated DC in the first leg, I dared not hope. And with the daunting prospect of Jermaine Jones, should-be league MVP Lee Nguyen, and the rest of the formidable New England Revolution ahead, I ought not hope. But history and experience and reason and common sense be damned: I dare to hope.
