President Trump

Some formerly skeptical people are reluctantly coming to recognize that climate change is real, not just propaganda or a prediction that might turn out to be false. Likewise, some people are reluctantly beginning to realize that Trump could be the Republican nominee, from which it follows that he could even conceivably be elected president. One would like to think his being nominated and winning the election is highly unlikely. But it should not be forgotten that the Republican party recently chose Sarah Palin as its vice presidential nominee. In 2008 Republicans were prepared, in the event McCain was elected and had the bad luck to die or become incapacitated during his term, to have Sarah Palin as our president.

Today Americans are very dissatisfied. There is a notable resemblance between contemporary America and Weimar Germany (as discussed in Trump’s Weimar America). Attraction to extreme ideas in troubled times helps to explain the election in 1933, in Germany, of Adolf Hitler. Can we be sure Americans are too smart to elect a dangerous demagogue?

Pundits who repeatedly dismissed the viability of Trump’s candidacy, assuming voters would abandon him after taking a closer look, were repeatedly proven wrong. Now, ten days before the Iowa caucus, polls show Trump has overcome Cruz’s lead there, is far ahead in New Hampshire, and has substantial leads in the next two primary states, South Carolina and Nevada. So it is conceivable Trump could become the Republican nominee. Consequently it is possible Trump could be our next president, unless enough people wake up to the seriousness of the risk and support his opponent.

In 2010, Syria was a peaceful developing country with a per capita GDP comparable to that of Jordan. Now, just a few years later, it has degenerated into violent disorder. Few people, if any, expect a major catastrophe in America in the near future. But few anticipated the disastrous turn of events in Syria, just as few foresaw the collapse of the Soviet Union.

It is hard to envision one’s country falling apart. That might be due to the unlikelihood of such a development. Or, more than people may want to admit, it might be that the collapse of America is unthinkable the same way nuclear war is unthinkable, not so much because it is certain not to occur, as because the possibility is too horrible to contemplate.