Will computer simulations “safe mode” for humanity?
“Any system like Eternity, which allows men to choose their own future, will end by choosing safety and mediocrity, and in such a Reality the stars are out of reach… And he saw Eternity with great clarity as a sink of deepening psychoses, a writhing pit of abnormal motivation, a mass of desperate lives torn brutally out of context.”
Isaac Asimov “The End of Eternity” 1855
Recently, the YouTube exploded a new game on the computer Ultimate Epic Battle Simulator. It’s not really a game, it’s more a simulator of military operations. You can create any number of soldiers with pre-known characteristics, arrange them on the ground and run a battle simulation. YouTube teems with various scenes of large-scale battles.
If simulations of this level are used for simple toys, imagine how real military actions are planned now. It is quite possible to reduce the number of hot conflicts in the world due to the development of the prognostication of military operations. After all, since the time of Sun-Tzu, it is known that the cause of any war is in ignorance of its results. That is, both sides of the conflict expect their winnings and only a real clash will show who was right. And if everything is known beforehand, then there is no need to fight.
Forecasting using computer simulations can not only war. Improbable is developing the operating system SpatialOS, which helps online game manufacturers to check the quality of the planned battles.
And recently the company announced the beginning of new research related to the simulation of real events. The first developments will be carried out in urban planning to optimize transport and organize major events for forecasting highly loaded processes.
There will be more. People always wanted to know what will happen tomorrow. Simulation of the real world will allow us to “glance” in tomorrow and avoid mistakes. That is, humanity has almost invented a time machine! Of course, we imagined everything a little wrong, but what difference does it make possible to know where to fall andcover the butt.
But now let’s think about the problems. In the title of the article is a quote from the book The End of Eternity by Isaac Asimov. The main plot describes the situation in which “today’s” people have decided for the people of the future that flying into space is not very profitable and in general is quite dangerous. And they canceled the space program, rewriting their future for a comfortable and safe.
And what if a simulation on a supercomputer shows that a cure for cancer will never be invented? Financing of the dead-end project will be stopped.
And if the simulation absolutely reliably shows that the war with the US will end in the defeat of any country? Сountries of the whole world will forever submit to the eternal Third Rome forever.
In a world where you can “save the game” and check what happens next, many things will become ghostly. Do we want to know the future? Or maybe the unknown is the driver of our development. Only make mistakes, only take chances. So we leave ourselves free will.
