Arizona Senate Race Heats Up
Is this the end of John McCain’s twenty-nine year Senate career?
Around the pale green cacti and in the 100-degree heat of the Arizona sun, something far more scorching is developing. The Senate race in Arizona is a complex affair, and a slice of the broader political movement. The same narrative has developed: an extremist is challenging the establishment base Republican, while a rising liberal fights to take them both down.
Arizona politics does not see much blue. The state has two Republican Senators: John McCain and Jeff Flake. The state has a Republican Governor: Doug Ducey. The state has a Republican legislature, and a slew of Republican leaders. Phoenix, Bisbee, and Tucson are the liberal holdouts — but other than municipal leadership and a few Representatives, they have little power. This is why the 2016 election is so unique: a liberal presidential and a liberal senatorial candidate have a chance to win. In fact, in the last ten presidential elections, a Democrat has won just once (1996: Clinton v. Dole).
However, you can break traditional logic and precedent if Donald Trump is involved. This entire election year has been about breaking the mold. To surmise if Democratic challengers have any chance in the 2016 Presidential Election in Arizona, and for the future of Democratic expansion, this congressional race is key.
“The same narrative has developed: an extremist is challenging the establishment base Republican, while a rising liberal fights to take them both down.”
So, let’s meet the candidates. The favorite to win is incumbent five-term Senator John McCain. A seasoned politician, McCain was the Republican nominee for president himself in 2008 — winning Arizona. His seat has been stable and secure, until fringe groups started challenging his power and the rise of Donald Trump galvanized the political left. Republican uncertainty has brought in the two challengers. First, the only viable Republican challenger for the primary is Kelli Ward. She is currently a State Senator from Lake Havasu City, and is doing surprisingly well in the polls. A repeated mention at Breitbart, Ward supports many of Trump’s ideas and is the anti-establishment challenger that has typified recent Republican primaries. The Democrats have rallied around a single candidate: Ann Kirkpatrick, Arizona’s 1st District Representative. She is gaining a lot of the moderate vote, even though she has been repeatedly attacked by conservatives as a big-time supporter of Obama. The parallels to the general election could not be clearer, but do the Democrats actually have a chance in this conservative stronghold?
Yes, but not because of the Democrats or the Arizona Democratic Party. Independents are the real prize in the upcoming election. Neither the Democrats nor the Republicans control the majority voting bloc in Arizona; independents do. With Arizona’s closed primary, this means that the will of the largest group of voters in the state is largely unknown. This, coupled with the sizeable portion of still undecided voters, makes this race very competitive.
The biggest issue with the Kirkpatrick’s chance in 2016 might be organization. As the Chairman of the High School Democrats of Arizona I am rather familiar with the party on a state level. While field organizers are working hard towards new communication, the potential of Arizona has been untapped. The state party is not vocal, and county parties lack swift and effective communication with liberal groups. In fact, Maricopa County Democrats in particular are almost impossible to reach. While working on multiple projects in the Phoenix area, they would not answer emails or phone calls. Their blatant disregard for networking is disturbing. The coming need for unity is apparent. The mission to attract independents and first-time voters is going to require a coordinated effort.
“The parallels to the general election could not be clearer, but do the Democrats actually have a chance in this conservative stronghold?”
Much of Phoenix and Tucson as well as liberal towns like Bisbee are a lock for the Democratic Kirkpatrick, but what she really needs is high turnout. The question of turnout has gotten plenty of press in this election as the key to a Trump election in the Republican primaries, but even more so in the regional successes of Bernie Sanders. Much like Bernie Sanders, Kirkpatrick needs to rely on a sudden spring of youth progressive fervor by establishing connections to younger generations. Sanders couldn’t win the nomination with this alone, but paired with Kirkpatrick’s moderate appeal, this combination could be devastating for McCain. Millennials can be a huge boon to the Democratic effort for Senate in 2016, but not if they’re at home. This is the exact reason Republicans won a landslide victory in the 2010 elections. Voter turnout was low and mild anti-Obama sentiment got the conservative base out to the voting booths. Kirkpatrick has no chance if that happens again, but for what seems to be a contentious election — mobilizing voters becomes exponentially easier with Trump at the GOP’s helm. McCain will still probably win, but the country is truly at a crossroads when Arizona is put into play as a fringe blue state.
The more interesting challenge comes from the Republican party itself, in extremist candidate Kelli Ward — a smaller edition of the Republican in-fighting for control of the party between the establishment and extremism. This primary has been contentious. Ward supporters have claimed McCain staffers shoved Ward’s mother. McCain fired back. The two are on flimsy terms at best, and Ward’s support of Trump only inflames their relationship more. McCain has been the butt of Trump attacks regarding his Prisoner of War status, and is not a supporter. Just recently, Jeff Flake (R-AZ), defended McCain against Trump. Flake went as far as telling NPR he believed the real-estate mogul “could lose Arizona.” Realistically, the establishment is poised to retain Arizona. McCain has successfully mobilized an extensive youth intern network, and looks capable of triumph according to polls. However, the shake-up between these two candidates could be disastrous in the general if in-fighting continues. There’s a dwindling chance that Kelli Ward will win the primary, but she does have the power to deal her, McCain, and Republicans a defeat through division.
“The conservative confusion and backlash has helped intensify local, internal party divides.”
In a state filled with a mix of privileged Caucasians and rising Latino communities, large voter bases are being swayed by decisions at the national level. Minorities and passive liberals have risen in the face of Donald Trump. Xenophobic, sheltered populations have flocked to Trump. Many of Arizona’s conservatives and religious groups pushed for Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio. Yet, working class Arizonans have been pushed to the political edges — Sanders or Trump. The liberal fervor obviously supports Kirkpatrick. The conservative confusion and backlash has helped intensify local, internal party divides. This demonstrates the pervasive impact of the Presidential Primary on down-ballot races — something to keep keenly in mind as results are returned in November.
While it seems we may be witnessing the fracturing of the modern Republican party, the Democrats aren’t yet cleared for landing. While Kirkpatrick doesn’t have a progressive Bernie-esque challenger, she is in a very red state. Other Democrats from around the nation may soon find themselves less lucky in their respective primaries. The one thing for sure in the upcoming Arizona Senate race is that the political landscape is undergoing drastic alterations. To a true millennial who only really remembers the context of an Obama presidency, this election is a huge change. To the veteran voter, this election still calls forth a new era of politics — with grassroots campaigning and extremist rhetoric at the forefront, bringing a host of anti-establishment candidates into the limelight.
