Three Reasons Clinton/Kaine will Reign Supreme on Election Day
The signs are clear: Hillary Clinton will be the 45th President of the United States.
Politics has begun to resemble reality TV. Donald Trump slowly told each candidate of the excessively large GOP field that they were “fired.” Hillary Clinton is dropping scandals occasionally to keep the viewer excited for the next episode. You have the crazy personalities like Sheriff Joe and dwindling celebrities like Scott Baio making appearances. Even the producers of the show can’t avoid writing juicy e-mails that are quickly swept into the dramatic fray — you won’t be finding Debbie Wasserman Schultz in the credits anymore.
I don’t like reality TV. I am getting scared by its recent appearance in the realm of politics. However, I am getting less worried that a New York real-estate mogul will gain control of our country and more confident that Hillary Clinton will be successful come November — here’s why.
1. The electoral map is in Hillary Clinton’s favor.
While congressional debaters and everyday voters alike decry the system of the electoral college, it’s the unfortunate reality of presidential politics. Winning a plurality is not the true goal, just ask Al Gore. When looking to the decision-makers, Hillary Clinton has an unmistakable advantage on the electoral map.
If you look to RCP polling, the Clinton/Kaine ticket is likely to comfortably win 233 votes of the 270 needed for the presidency. Even if you give Arizona, Ohio, Georgia, Virginia, North Carolina, and Iowa (states that are toss-ups at best) to Trump/Pence, the two campaigns are only tied.
It’s unlikely Trump will win over all five of those states. Why? Well take Arizona, a usually safe, conservative state that gives the GOP 11 electoral votes, as an example. Clinton is leading. To be clear, a Democrat has won the state once in 64 years. The number of states in play in 2016 has grown, and due to Donald Trump’s astounding polarization of the electorate, his only hope is that Mike Pence’s more calming presence will somehow rally his numbers. Even without Trump and Pence dismally behind, if Clinton wins Florida and Michigan — even while losing Nevada, Wisconsin, Missouri and Maine District 2 — she’s won the presidency.
Donald Trump will need a political miracle to take the electoral map from Hillary Clinton.
2. Even as Republican leaders in Washington have endorsed Trump, major donors hold out.
Republican donors have been less than enthusiastic about Trump’s campaign. Take a recent example: Meg Whitman — CEO of HP — has said she will fund, support, and vote for Hillary Clinton. A conservative woman with considerable resources and clout was not comfortable with his misogyny. She is not alone.
Even the infamous Koch brothers are planning on utilizing their resources down-ballot. Without new sources of significant funding, Trump is going to be out-funded and out-advertised — not the ideal situation for any major candidate.
The GOP establishment in Washington may have begun coalescing around Trump; GOP donors have not.
3. Trump’s lack of restraint will keep him embroiled in scandal until November.
What should really scare the Republicans in 2016 is Donald Trump’s mouth. Pence has shown some restraint and even promoted sensible political moves like reinstating press credentials, yet Trump can’t stop cranking out scandals from his factory in Trump Towers.
We know Trump dislikes Mexicans. We know Trump dislikes Muslims entering the country. We know he attacks the press for their gender and their disabilities. We know he awkwardly flirts with his own daughter. We know he has consistently uttered sexist remarks.
He can’t even say the right thing in regards to basic policy. In March, Trump claimed he wanted to nuke ISIS. You would think the backlash and basic philosophy of Mutually Assured Destruction would have set in by now. However, Trump truly is ‘MAD.’ He couldn’t get through a simple foreign policy briefing without asking why using nukes was out of the question.
It is getting harder and harder for Trump to shock us, but when we think he can’t possibly do any more, he attacks the Khan family or kicks a crying baby out of his rally. Trump doesn’t care — waving fans and snapping cameras surround him — he’s going to continue the pattern.
Scandal and controversy don’t correlate to moderate votes. Group by group, person by person, large subsets of America will eventually become disillusioned. You can’t win an election solely with the support of scared white men.
The cameras are rolling. The stage is set. The microphones are live. America is on the edge of her couch. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton are coming on stage. It is a reality TV show — no, not your usual petty, drama-filled affair. They present the reality of our future and two very different visions for the path forward for the world’s foremost democracy.
You’re the critic. You get to choose which show is renewed for four seasons. Think carefully, but come November, don’t be surprised if Hillary Rodham Clinton: 45th President of the United States is playing in your living room.
