Who cares about trends?
Our organization hasn’t been particularly trendy since the fall of bell bottoms; however, trends are our bread and butter, the alpha and omega of much of the conservation work we do.
Here at Playa Lakes Joint Venture (PLJV), the closest we get to trendy is our communication director’s sweet ‘do or the impeccable style of our recently hired associate biologist. Other than that, our organization hasn’t been particularly trendy since the fall of bell bottoms. In spite of that, however, trends are our bread and butter, the alpha and omega of much of the conservation work we do on a regular basis. Rather than pay rigorous attention to the latest fits of Kanye and Bieber, we pay attention to the trends of our feathered and flying friends of the grassland.
When most people think of trends, Mountain Plovers and Long-billed Curlews aren’t the first things that come to mind. But birds and their populations across the continent have trends of their own that are deceptively important and often harder to watch than the inexplicable rise of drop-cloth sweatpants. The trends of rising and falling bird species are important not only to birdwatchers, but also to conservationists, energy developers, landowners, and government agencies.
Information about whether populations of specific species are trending upwards or downwards informs many, if not most, management decisions regarding which species deserve funding and effort toward their protection. If a species begins to trend downwards due to predation, habitat degradation, or climatic shifts, efforts need to be made to safeguard that species from the dark fate of extinction. If a species of interest begins to trend upwards, effective actions taken to promote that species can be examined and applied elsewhere, and resources can be reallocated to help populations that are in greater danger.
Often, however, shifting trends in grassland bird populations are difficult to diagnose. Many grassland bird species have endured population declines of more than 50% in the last century, and populations that remain are highly mobile and difficult to pin down year to year. These birds are not bound by national and international boundaries, and their shift across country and state lines make organizing effective protection efforts an organizational difficulty, with adequate federal attention often even more challenging. Many grassland species also require attention to breeding and wintering ranges that compel them to migrate from the northern US and Canada in the summer all the way to Mexico in the winter.
If a 3% decline in population occurs annually for 25 years, more than half of that population will be gone.
Into this desperate need for robust data emerges the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program, coordinated by Bird Conservancy of the Rockies. IMBCR is a survey with a spatially balanced sampling design which allows inferences to be made about avian species occurrence and population sizes at various scales — from local management units to entire bird conservation regions or states — facilitating conservation at local and national levels. The sampling design allows for the estimation of density, population size, and occupancy for biologically meaningful combinations of mapped subsections.
According to Jeff Birek, outreach biologist with the Bird Conservancy of the Rockies, three is the magic number that denotes a trend. “Our goal is to be able to tell whether a population of birds is going up or down by 3% or more annually. If the population keeps going down by 3% every year, and we are noticing, then that is cause for concern and something we can start to act on before the birds are completely gone.”
“We can say: ‘Oh my gosh, there is something affecting these birds, they’re starting to decrease, and we’ve seen year after year that they’re going down by 3% or more every year. It is time to act because, if we don’t, in ten years we’re not going to have nearly the populations we have today.’”
With the advent of IMBCR, this detection is easier, faster, and with greater precision than ever. Conservation and management actions can be focused and aimed at the most imperiled species, which before may have gone unidentified until it was too late. Stronger calls for protection and action, bolstered by the confidence in robust data, can breathe new life into conservation efforts — as far as IMBCR transects can reach. And most importantly, our trendy winged friends can rest a little easier knowing that we have their backs.
Playa Lakes Joint Venture (PLJV) is working with many partners to fund the Integrated Monitoring in Bird Conservation Regions (IMBCR) program across our six-state region. This program, IMBCR for PLJV, provides much-needed, scientifically defensible estimates of bird distribution and abundance across large regions that can be used by conservation organizations, state and federal agencies, and energy companies to target and evaluate habitat projects throughout the region.
For more information about IMBCR for PLJV or how your organization can participate, contact us at 303–926-0777.
