While 2020 has been unique in most our lifetimes for the restrictions placed on all our lives, there continues to be a feeling that the West will return to normal soon and that lockdowns, face masks and social distancing are not a permanent “new normal”. However, while China and other states have expertly handled the virus to ensure this is the case, Britain and America have failed spectacularly.
Working only to ensure the survival of the capitalist system, our governments have willingly opened the country and people to this deadly pathogen, reasoning that no loss of life is too significant to keep the economy afloat. This attitude is one that should supremely worry the British and American people, not least given the fact that the coronavirus may just be the beginning of a perfect storm that will bring the Western powers to their knees.
The COVID-19 Second Wave
The most pressing and visible crisis looming for the West is the second wave of COVID-19.
Despite the warnings of scientists and experts, Britain is repeating the mistakes of the first wave by not locking down the country. Determined to keep the economy open for business and threatened from an anti-lockdown palace coup led by Michael Gove, the weak-willed Boris Johnson will leave it until the last possible second before doing what must be done.
It will be far too late, and the frightening reality is that history has already shown us the trajectory of the coronavirus.
The Spanish flu 1918/1919 initially hit with a wave of infections and deaths, causing alarm and panic. Restrictions soon set in, some citizens became disgruntled and rejected mask-wearing, believing the threat to be minimal or entirely non-existent. After a lull in cases throughout the late summer, the virus exploded, killing 228,000 people in the U.K. alone. At the same time, 50 million died around the globe.
While the NHS performed admirably during the last wave under intense pressure and hours, it would collapse entirely under such a scenario.
The Potential Collapse of Deutsche Bank
Earlier this year, Deutsche Bank announced that it was laying off 18,000 employees, one-fifth of its global workforce, and closing its international equities trading business. Just yesterday the bank announced that it would close one in five branches in Germany. While the coronavirus and digitisation were given as the cause, the move comes at a crucial time for the banking sector.
Identified as one of the banks implicated in massive worldwide money laundering in the FinCEN Files, Deutsche Bank is accused of shifting a staggering $1.3 trillion of suspicious money.
A potential failure for the bank would devastate the global economy, with the likes of JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and the Bank of America being heavily interconnected to Deutsche Bank.
Shares in all those banks have fallen following the release of the files. Those of Deutsche Bank dropped more than 8%, while JPMorgan fell 3.1%. Goldman Sachs fell 0.4%, Citigroup lost 2%, and Bank of New York Mellon traded 4.1% lower on Monday.
Such is the danger that a collapse poses that the IMF has said that Deutsche Bank poses a more significant threat to global financial stability than any other bank.
Widespread Violence Following the American Election
No matter who wins the forthcoming American election on November 3, there will be violence on American streets.
Both sides have already written their “betrayal narrative” where the Republicans are set to blame Chinese influence, Antifa and voter fraud. In contrast, the Democrats are set to blame Russia, a rigged Supreme Court and voter suppression. When coupled with the ongoing anger over the deaths of George Floyd and Breonna Taylor, working-class dissatisfaction at wealth inequality and a government more than willing to put the army on the streets, you have a powder keg.
The violence that will come following the result has the potential to make the violence seen throughout 2020 look like a minor disturbance.
Potential War With Iran
War always plays well to a disgruntled populace. Being able to wrap your leadership in the flag at times of civil dissatisfaction is one of the oldest tricks in the establishment playbook. Mobilising nationalism, the attacker will divert energies into patriotism, demanding the nation “pull together” in the face of a new (or old) enemy. Criticism of the government becomes a brave stance, and those who dare are often ostracised.
Lo and behold, America now claims that Iran will have a nuclear weapon by Christmas.
U.S. hawks have been angling for war with Iran ever since the overthrow of the Shah and undoubtedly believed their moment had come with the election of Donald Trump.
Trump is many awful things, but his aversion to war is noted. All be it, more likely for economic reasoning than any actual morality. Yet the Pentagon hawks and Israel continue to agitate, Israel being behind the push.
With Iranian enemies lining up to normalise their relations with the apartheid state, the Zionists will undoubtedly feel emboldened. While Biden has made it clear he backs Israel, the country may still make another push to eradicate their only real geopolitical rival in the Middle East while Trump is guaranteed to be in the White House. With the current President facing increasing isolation over COVID-19, abysmal poll ratings and riots in many U.S. cities, he may finally bow to demands for war.
It is a war America cannot win.
No Deal Brexit
While some who support Brexit like to claim concern over a no-deal Brexit is “Project Fear” and undoubtedly some remainers have gone overboard in their hysteria, the truth is that no agreement has always been the worst possible scenario for Britain.
An analysis by U.K. in a Changing Europe and the London School of Economics has concluded that “a no-deal Brexit would represent a further major shock to a U.K. economy” in light of COVID-19.
“Our modelling with LSE of the impact of a no-deal Brexit suggests that the total cost to the U.K. economy over the longer term will be two to three times as large as that implied by the Bank of England’s forecast for the impact of COVID-19.”
The LSE modelling says the long-term economic hit from no-deal Brexit will be 8% of GDP or a sum of £160bn in today’s money. £2,400 per person.
That modelling doesn’t account for the devastation of a second wave, the potential collapse of Deutsche Bank or the effect on the American economy of widespread insurrection or war with Iran.