Racing Against the Calendar: Seasonality in B2C Marketing

Seasonality for customer acquisition has been a big topic we’ve been discussing with B2C founders this past month. While there’s never a “perfect” time to spend where CACs magically bottom-out, there are several things a founder can do to ensure that CAC headwinds are due to volume, and not foreseeable seasonal factors. There’s nothing worse than seeing CACs skyrocket and contribution margins fall — it can make all the difference between a profitable quarter and one with high burn. This is particularly the case if the CAC increases are predictable.

We work with a lot of direct-to-consumer companies that spend across the traditional digital channels (predominately Facebook, Instagram, and Google). From data, and anecdata, collected over several years, we wanted to publish a collection of our observations on seasonality in B2C spend. We’ve found that it’s important to keep the below in mind as you plan out marketing budget for the year.

January

An amazing month to spend if you’re a consumer staple or a “better for you” product. Lots of brands with giftable products will spend like gangbusters in November and early December (see below) and then step on the brakes to recuperate in early Q1 (while consumers are fatigued). This means that there is lower demand for ad inventory and decreased CACs across the board. If your product is something that people need to buy regardless of the calendar (e.g., contact lenses), this can be a great time to achieve low CACs. You also see a lot of consumers shopping for New Years resolution products — anything related to healthy eating, exercise, better skincare, etc. If you run a company selling products in these spaces, this can be a phenomenal time to advertise (lower CACs + consumer intent).

February

Similar dynamics to January in terms of lower brand spend resulting in better CACs, with the exception of Valentine’s Day leading to a spike in ad buying during the week or two leading up to the holiday. This is a period where we’ve seen companies that sell vacation-oriented products (bathing suits, suitcases, etc.) perform well due to lower CACs and consumer intent from upcoming winter vacations.

March

Similar to February, but without Valentine’s Day.

April

This is when CACs start to rise as brands begin to push their summer products. If you are in a category where you need to promote your summer lines (apparel), you won’t have much of a choice. But if you are selling a non-seasonal product, it might be smart to begin easing up on marketing during this period, particularly in the latter half of the month.

May

A more exacerbated version of April. As the summer rapidly approaches, brands that want to drive strong sales of their seasonal lines up their spend. A lot of folks also start advertising summer vacation-oriented products.

June

June is typically busy, with a lot of brands pushing the end of their summer-oriented lines. However, you start to see customers slipping away on vacation and spending less time online shopping. As a result, CACs tend to stay elevated in June.

July

Now starts the summer doldrums. After July 4th, a lot of customers will be on vacation at any given time. However, similar to January, advertisers often begin to pull back in this month and it can be a good time to spend if you’re a consumer staple. It can also be a good time to offload any excess summer-oriented inventory that you were unable to shed in the earlier months.

August

August can be a tricky month. In the first half of the month, demand for ad inventory is lower, yielding lower CACs, but consumer intent is lower as many folks are on vacation. However, as the month ticks on, you begin to compete with back-to-school / back-to-work productivity products. We’ve seen early August as a good time to achieve strong CACs, but the last two weeks of August can prove trickier.

September

Busy, busy, busy. Lots of brands ramp up spend in September, whether in apparel, back-to-school, productivity, etc. CACs tend to be high in September as over-stimulated consumers are targeted by brand after brand trying to draw their limited attention as they settle back into work or school. If you need to advertise in this period due to your product type, you won’t have much of a choice, but otherwise this can be a good time to rest up.

October

Early October can be a good time to spend as you’re in between the back-to-work / back-to-school rush and the run-up to the holidays. Across product categories, early October can often present favorable CACs. As you near the end of the month, you begin to touch the beginning of the flurry of holiday spending. There is one important caveat to this trend, though — presidential election years. As we saw in 2020, presidential elections lead to massive spend by both parties across social media. The campaigns have money to spend before Election Day and tend not to be “margin” focused like a traditional business, so they can be non-economic buyers. This spend eats up a ton of ad inventory and results in high CACs across the board.

November

November is the toughest month in the B2C customer acquisition calendar. This is the month of Black Friday, and pretty much every giftable product will be going full-tilt on advertising to acquire as much wallet share as possible during the early holiday season. CACs tend to be at their highest this month. If you’re a product in a giftable category, you may not have a choice. If you’re a consumer staple or non-seasonal product, we often advocate spending as little as possible in November and saving your dry powder for January (see above).

December

“In like a lion, out like a lamb.” This phrase doesn’t typically apply to December, but for B2C customer acquisition, it might. The beginning of December sees the tail-end of frenzied holiday spending and very high CACs. The last week(s) of December, on the other hand, can be a great time to scoop up inventory as many brands stop spending to cool down before going into the new year. This can be a particularly good time to start ramping up spend if you’re a non-seasonal business that titrated down spend in November (ahead of a big push in January).

The above observations will not be consistent for every business and vertical, but we wanted to share general takeaways in the hopes that they’re helpful as you plan out your marketing calendar. Many companies don’t have the luxury of total optionality in terms of when to spend. However, to the extent that calendar is controllable, you can make the supply and demand dynamics work in your favor to drive lower CACs and better margins for your business.