The Midterm Glimpse of America’s Future

Sectionalism, Migration, and the Coming Institutional Nightmare

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Top: House results. Dark Blue is Democratic gain. Dark Red is Republican gain. Bottom: Senate results. Light Blue is Democratic gain. Light Red is Republican gain.

The Sectional Referendum(s) on Trump and Trumpism

Unlike most past embattled Presidents, who have typically distanced themselves from midterm elections to spare their Parties as much electoral retribution as possible, Trump openly made the election about himself. At various rallies, he even encouraged attendees to pretend that it was his name on the ballot, hardly giving much attention to the candidates he was, in theory, stumping for in different locales. Other policy issues notwithstanding, it is hard to argue that the election was not about Trump, considering the constant politicization of all subjects, spectacular and mundane, in the country by him, whether via Twitter or otherwise.

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Blue States and Red States over four Presidential Elections, 2004–16. Red: Republican victory in 4/4. Pink: Republican victory in 3/4. Dark blue: Democratic victory in 4/4. Light blue: Democratic victory in 3/4. Purple: Evenly split.
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Institutional Dissociative Identity

What occurred in this election, thus, is representative of an increasingly fixed institutional reality for the future, which intersects with internal migration that will continue to follow economic incentives. As economic opportunities are increasingly found in urban metropolises, and residence thus booms in them and suburban/exurban areas, a disproportionate amount of the American population will be concentrated in a relatively small number of States. This will mean a divergent representative reality between the House and the Senate.

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Every State for Itself, Almost

This coming reality, which in a sense is already here, means that for the immediate future, Federal policymaking will function at a bare minimum, if even that. That is not to say that Democrats should surrender the Federal Government, but, to remain relevant, they must mostly focus on just limiting the damage that might be done by extremist GOP caucuses in the House and the Senate. Ironically, this status quo has made States’/reserved rights, per the 10th Amendment, a liberal/progressive cause. Numerous Blue State Attorneys-General, for example, have used their positions to successfully sue the Trump administration on a variety of policy matters.

Reformer

An online platform for thought-provoking, critical, and…

Rushd as-Safaa → The Contrarian Muslim

Written by

Male. Dem. Pluralistic Muslim. Indonesian Renewal Disciple. Ex-academic. Opposed to fanaticism. Formerly of Reformer Mag. Aka Haytham ad-Din.

Reformer

Reformer

An online platform for thought-provoking, critical, and contextual articles on politics, society, and policy.

Rushd as-Safaa → The Contrarian Muslim

Written by

Male. Dem. Pluralistic Muslim. Indonesian Renewal Disciple. Ex-academic. Opposed to fanaticism. Formerly of Reformer Mag. Aka Haytham ad-Din.

Reformer

Reformer

An online platform for thought-provoking, critical, and contextual articles on politics, society, and policy.

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