RSR TA Sunday — Edition 12
Happy Sunday Rangers! We’re here again to recap yet another exciting week of price action and growth in the Reserve ecosystem. As mentioned in last week’s TA Sunday, continuation higher was likely given the fundamental strength seen in app growth and strong weekly close above the previous all time high close just above $0.070. Price action this week certainly did not disappoint, as we rocketed to new highs, closing in on the coveted Ten Cent Party.
In light of the scaling that we have seen (and with Reserve as the #1 financial app in Venezuela) it is worth looking back at our February 21st, 2021 comments around Scaling The Team & The Importance of User Experience. Remember, these comments came just a month ago, when RSR was still at $0.05!
We have already seen the team facing challenges in keeping up with customer demand over the last week, as the app gains in popularity, especially in Venezuela (I am guessing, primarily in Caracas, the largest city in Venezuela and one where the team has rolled out their cash delivery service).
Although scaling can be difficult, and likely the Reserve app was more well-received than they anticipated, I think we can assume they are “all hands on deck” as the rollout in Marzo continues and the ecosystem adds more and more users. As exciting as the initial rollout has been, I am just as excited to watch the app continue to scale across regions in South America in coming months as invites are distributed to existing users and they are added in (what I imagine will be) a similarly exclusive model as a Clubhouse used when they were beginning to scale.
As we continue to see the Reserve app rise in popularity this month, and see the team begin to release initial figures on app usage, I think it is fair to say we will rise into our aggressive targets for the end of the month of around $0.12, especially after nearly breaking the $0.10 mark earlier today. I do think this growth could continue into the $0.15 — $0.20 range before abating as the team continues to do their heads-down building and working through the next phase of driving adoption through the app — scaling it while maintaining the high quality of customer service and focus that drove them to the top spot on the Google Play Store this past week.
Technical Analysis — week of March 21st
Weekly Timeframe — USDT Pair
On the weekly charts, we’ve seen yet another strong close above the previous week’s high, so I don’t see any indication that we can expect a near-term pullback, but rather expect continued consolidation and moves higher, as we have seen over the last week. We are still in something of an exploratory channel which tops at about $0.105 this week and $0.120 next week, before breaking into what I would see as a new sequence higher toward the top end of our longer-term logarithmic channel that has been holding for the past 12–18 months.
The two scenarios I see playing out this week are:
Option 1: A move down/sideways to consolidate, then struggling to fight through the $0.10 mark before breaking out higher toward $0.12 (breaking the channel during this week and therefore experiencing some very strong price action toward the $0.15 mark).
Option 2: (shown below) we move sideways or with slight breaks above $0.10 for the next week and test $0.12 but get rejected from there to the bottom end of the channel. This would result in a timeline for moves into the $0.15-$0.18 region to be pushed out into May vs. April.
In either case, I think we do see prices of $0.10 — $0.12 in the near term, likely before the end of March. The monthly close will be another I will be looking at closely, as a close above $0.12 to end March will be HIGHLY BULLISH and indicate continuation through April (as we’ve seen in nearly every month!).
Daily Timeframe — USDT Pair
Given the rise over the past week, it wouldn’t surprise me to see some consolidation over the next several days. However (and isn’t that the most beautiful chart ever) I do expect us to continue higher on the weekly toward a weekly close above this one in the $0.10-$0.12 range. Price action intra-week may end up a little strange as we’ll be closing weekly then monthly a few days later, so I’ll be watching price action this week closely for long opportunities following our slight rejection at $0.10. I’d personally be buying dips below $0.08 if we get there, and anything under $0.07 should be looked at as a gift if you are planning additional entries during the week.
Interestingly, the % peak-to-trough and trough-to-peak exercise we presented last week seems to be playing out well, with only a 20% or 30% gain left in the next 10 days to validate our hypothesis (see below).
From last week:
And this week:
Daily Timeframe — BTC Pair
As mentioned last week, a break above 160 sats with a daily close would be enough confirmation to drive us significantly higher from the long-term range of between 130–160 sats. This happened faster than I expected, with what looks to be a new channel forming that will take aim at the 185 sat mark next. I think if this continues we can see a break higher into 230 and finally 250+, which would be indicative of price discovery higher against bitcoin. I will be closely monitoring this one to watch our action against bitcoin, as I do expect continuation higher on bitcoin which could put some water on the fire of this breakout. At this point, however, it does look quite strong and a test of 185 and retest of 160 to flip resistance to support would be a healthy price move over the coming week. Let’s see a weekly and monthly close above 160 to help confirm this hypothesis.
Previous Editions of RSR TA Sunday
Edition 11 — March 14th, 2021
Edition 10 — March 7th, 2021
February 2021
January 2021
DISCLAIMER: “TA Sunday” is for entertainment and informational purposes only and is not meant to be construed as financial advice of any kind. All investments carry risks.
“TA Sunday” is not endorsed or supported by the Reserve Team, or any of its affiliates.
