Why India needs a new survival strategy for Lockdown 2.0
As India enters its second phase of a national lockdown, the social and economic toll is starting to mount. The national unemployment rate is estimated to have risen to 23% in April. Migrant workers who were shifted to relief camps after trying to return home, have rebelled in Surat and Mumbai over the lockdown extension. Not to mention a rise in mental health issues — of which we’ll have a clear estimate only once the lockdown is over. The IMF has unsuprisingly lowered India’s growth forecast to 1.9% for 2020–2021.
The central government has announced some concessions for reviving economic activity by opening up agriculture and industries in rural areas from April 20. However, in the absence of targeted policy solutions, India’s 269 million-strong urban poor population and large informal sector will struggle to survive an extended lockdown. Therefore, the centre needs to consider an alternate lockdown strategy that prevents a social and economic catastrophe.
1) Nutritious, cooked meals for the poor to build immunity and create alternate income streams
The centre has instructed states to provide increased rations to migrant labour and the poor, in the form of raw grains and cereals. For a 40-day lockdown, lentils and rice for 3 meals a day hardly constitute a well-balanced diet. Plus there are those without access to basic cooking facilities. Well-balanced nutritious meals might sound like a luxury, but are vital to boost the immunity of the poor. Vulnerable communities are more likely to have already been suffering from malnutrition and immunosuppressive conditions, which can increase their susceptibility to infectious diseases.
States must learn from Kerala, which provided cooked meals to poor and vulnerable communities, free of cost, to their doorstep. Kerala set up community kitchens across the state, managed by women self-help groups, providing them an alternate source of income. Although this may seem possible only in a communist-ruled state, other states must try to emulate Kerala, since the entire exercise played a role in flattening the state’s curve.
States can utilise existing infrastructure, including food suppliers for mid-day meal schemes in schools, and local NGOs. In Kerala, even affluent people can opt to receive cooked meals for a nominal charge. This would be particularly useful for the elderly and specially-abled people who might struggle to cook three meals a day. A targeted fund-raising campaign can elicit contributions from companies and individuals to reduce the burden on states’ finances.
2) Relax restrictions on e-commerce firms prohibiting the delivery of non-essential goods
The central government has partially relaxed restrictions on e-commerce firms, like Amazon and Flipkart, allowing them to deliver essential items, such as groceries and medicines, from April 20. However, it is unclear why these firms are barred from supplying non-essential items. It has no discernible public health benefits and is also harmful to the economy. Online deliveries could boost consumer demand, support many small-scale businesses and provide employment to thousands of delivery agents during this crisis.
Although restrictions are being eased on specific industrial activities from April 20, factories are unlikely to resume production if there is no consumer demand. In fact, many industries rely on labour and suppliers that may not be unavailable during a stringent lockdown. The centre must complement a supply-side resumption of economic activities with measures to revive consumer demand, such as allowing the resumption of online deliveries.
3) Encourage outdoor exercise to boost mental and physical health in less-affected states
“A combination of fresh air and sunlight played a role in substantially reducing deaths among some patients and infections among medical staff”, found a research study that analyzed the effectiveness of outdoor treatment during the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic. Many cities encouraged their residents to step out for outdoor exercise to boost their immunity during the 1918 pandemic.
In a country where outdoor exercise is not the norm, the Indian government must issue public health messaging about its benefits in boosting immunity and mental health. People living in slums and poorly ventilated-houses are at a higher risk of catching infectious diseases during an extended lockdown. Even in Singapore, migrant workers living in closely-confined dormitories are suffering from a devastating outbreak. Although citizens are allowed to go out to buy groceries and essentials, fear of contracting the virus and heavy-handed policing has discouraged many from stepping outside.
Although the government will justifiably worry about infections spreading, India ended up implementing its curfew-like lockdown without trialling any social distancing efforts, making it harder for the country to re-open. In less-affected states, the government must encourage outdoor exercise and soft social distancing measures, to understand any potential vulnerabilities in re-opening the country. The mandatory use of face masks and social distancing norms reduce the chances of infection spreading. Allowing outdoor exercise is also unlikely to lead to large congregations given the lack of public transport.
4) A timely fiscal stimulus to save India’s informal economy from collapse
“If fiscal stimulus efforts (in India) are not sufficiently timely or well administered, it will result in a collapse in informal-sector enterprise, with severe consequences for the wider economy,” reported the Economist Intelligence Unit. Indeed, a near standstill of economic activities for nearly two months of lockdown will decimate India’s informal sector, which employs 80% of the country’s workforce. The centre must provide substantial financial support to low‑income households through direct or indirect cash transfers, which have the additional benefit of sustaining small family-run businesses.
The centre appears to be resisting a fiscal stimulus after assessing the consequences of the UPA’s stimulus programme following the 2008 financial crisis. The stimulus played a part in causing high inflation and large fiscal deficits that plagued the final years of UPA-II. However, the UPA’s decision to provide the stimulus helped the economy quickly bounce back from the global crisis. Their mistake was not inserting a sunset clause which would wind-up spending once growth returned to normal. The BJP must not dither, since the IMF has warned that this economic slowdown will be worse than in 2008.
5) Test, trace, isolate: Look east policy to restart the economy
Three strategies seem to have emerged worldwide to deal with the pandemic. The first, the herd immunity strategy piloted by the UK, which allows the virus to run through the population, causes too many avoidable deaths. The second, being followed by India, of a stringent lockdown to build healthcare capacity alternated with release cycles, could end up destroying the economy. And the third, an aggressive test, trace, isolate strategy, pioneered by South Korea, avoided both, a serious death toll and economic shutdown.
India quickly needs to alter its strategy in order to avoid getting stuck in a vicious lockdown-and-release cycle trap. That means ramping up its testing capacity; it currently has one of the lowest testing rates in the world. For contact tracing, South Korea utilized an app that tracks its citizen movements and their interactions. Although India launched a similar Aarogya Setu app, widespread digital illiteracy and privacy concerns will hinder mass adoption. Instead, India must follow the Kerala model, and recruit volunteers to individually track, trace and isolate contacts of Covid-positive cases.
India has many unique vulnerabilities to an outbreak and its resurgence throughout the year, including densely populated cities, weak healthcare capacity and unequal access to clean water. While the government response to the pandemic has been decisive, it needs to explore alternative solutions, which coupled with humane lockdowns could see us through this crisis.
