Look past the Near Term Fog….and see Nevada 2025
As we watch the daily news cycles of the current near term issues of COVID and other related problems, it is easy to forget that they will pass. But that is a 100% certainty. This has gotten us at RNOX thinking again about our primary mission, and focus on the acceleration of Nevada — and the further transformation and support of our region’s economic shift into a national leading technology powerhouse. This is what we have always called Nevada 2.0.
However there is another important milestone and vision that we see, and one that is only further reinforced by the macroeconomic developments across the country. It is a focused vision, further informed by these changes — and one we call Nevada 2025.
Close your eyes and imagine five years into the future, look past the pandemic and near term issues, and think…. “What will Nevada be?”
Well, it will be excellent. And are five major areas and reasons why:
Rapid population increase with significant increase in a highly educated workforce
As the great US migration from higher tax states to lower tax, more business-friendly climates continues, Nevada will be a major beneficiary. We forecast the following:
- Increase in state population to 3.86–4.0M (Increase of 26–28% or more)
- Northern Nevada will increase at a pro-rata greater percentage, with a highly skilled and tech-centric workforce.
- Southern Nevada will also see strong increases and higher skilled workforce, and increased inbound corporate relocation.
- Overall statewide growth with updated infrastructure projects mostly already completed or in process.
Population growth can be a double edged sword. Sometimes it hampers a region (as in CA and other states) — other times it makes it thrive. The more mobile, higher net worth, and skilled workforce and population will be the ones capitalizing on this migration trend. And Nevada will thrive because of it. And Nevada — on almost every list — is at the top or near it in relocation choices:
The word is out, and this trend will only continue.
Diversification of the Nevada Economy
Due to this increasing population shift, the diversification of the Nevada economy and expansion into Technology, Logistics, Networks, Defense, and related industries will accelerate even faster. Our state has done a good job in recent years — led by groups like GOED (Gov., Office of Economic Development) and EDAWN (Economic Development Authority in Western Nevada) — to embrace this shift. However, if the recent COVID impact has taught us anything, is that this shift needs to be faster. Given the current regional tailwinds that we have, combined with help from initiatives like RNOX, this will only get better.
We anticipate the percentage of the state GDP in gaming to drop from 38% to approx. 29–30%, with Las Vegas still dominating the National and International gaming market. Gaming isn’t going anywhere — and Las Vegas will still lead. But, as a state we will be so much more. And the world will take notice.
We believe the most significant areas of increase will be — Technology/Network/Data Centers, Software Development, Manufacturing, Defense Contractors/Spending (more on this later), and Logistics Operations.
Increased influence on National Economic Policy
With increasing economic power comes increased influence on national economic issues. Most of the nation still looks at Nevada as a swing state, and one with one limited national issues relating to Gaming, Defense, and Yucca Mountain waste storage. While we in Nevada know this is far from the truth, our increased population, combined with a rapidly diversifying economy, will create a greater voice on national economics and related issues.
Thus, expect our elected officials to use that to the hopeful benefit of Nevada — and increased influence on all National and International economic matters.
We anticipate the primary areas that will be positively impacted are — better influence on Banking and Regulatory issues, Taxation issues, and Business Friendly national regulatory policies.
Nevada will become a more significant leader in National Defense, and Defense Spending
Guess how much of Nevada’s land is owned by the Federal Government and DoD?
You’re probably way off. The Current percentage is 81.07% And no, it’s not all Area 51.
Nevada has always been a significant area of Defense research, bases, operations, and control. However, coupled with the increased workforce and highly skilled labor migration — and business friendly climate — expect several major military and defense contractors to relocate HQ and operations to Nevada. Additionally, several new startups in Drone and Aviation technology have already set up shop in Nevada, and that will only grow and continue.
So, calling all defense innovators (particularly those in Southern CA). If you need a new home, “Home Means Nevada.” (FYI — That is our State motto for the rest of you Non-Nevadans, lol).
Recreation revenue will increase (and not just in Gaming)
Put the words “Nevada” and “Vacation” in a sentence, and you probably think of Chevy Chase rolling with the family to Las Vegas. But for anyone who has been to Tahoe, gone fishing in our rivers and streams, and experienced the true natural wonders Nevada has to offer, you know that Nevada is so much more.
COVID has changed the average Americans travel plans in the near term, but it has also exposed one undeniable fact. America has AWESOME vacation, opportunities, and entertainment right in our own backyards.
And this consumer behavior, once in place, is hard to change. Expect less overall foreign travel, and more domestic. And a State like Nevada has all the opportunity in the world to capitalize, and it will.
We anticipate that the overall revenue for the state from Travel and Tourism (non-gaming) will increase over 20%, with Gaming based tourism to grow at its normalized 12–16% range.
So take heart. This fog will certainly pass. And when it does, Nevada will emerge stronger than ever.
And at RNOX, when we see Nevada 2025, we can’t help but smile. And be happier every day that Home Means Nevada.
