AL Wild Card Preview: Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays
Playoff baseball opens tonight with a bout between two AL East clubs; the Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles square off in a winner-take-all, toe-to-toe battle that decides who moves on to play in the ALDS. The squads step into the diamond at 8 PM ET tonight on TBS in the US and Sportsnet in Canada. The Jays are -150 betting favourites in the home park according to OddsShark.com, so let’s got to the Tale of the Tape:
Toronto features the oldest team in the league, and their window may be closing quickly. As we wrote earlier this season:
2016 may be the last year this aging Blue Jays squad gets a go at a ring together as the contracts of key pieces Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Michael Saunders are set to expire at season’s end.
The Orioles aren’t spring chickens either, ranking fifth in roster age; they no longer control key pieces Matt Wieters and Mark Trumbo heading into 2017. The New York Yankees look like fast risers and could be a challenge in a similarly contested Wild Card scenario as early as next season. It’s do-or-die for both of these veteran squads.
The Orioles do feature young pitching and managed to survive the regular season in spite of it; the O’s staff was among the most inconsistent in the league. Halfway through the season, this is how we described their staff:
The Orioles’ starting staff has been…bad. Like, not just light beer bad, but like the last couple swallows out of the bottle of a light beer bad. They rank second to last in the AL in team ERA, team FIP, and team xFIP. They’re looking up at the Red Sox who are in the middle of the pack in those categories. They’re looking up so high at the Blue Jay their necks are aching — so grab a muscle relaxer while you’re picking up the Xanax.
In the second half, the rotation scratched together some middling numbers — though a definite improvement. They finished eighth and ninth in rotation FIP and xFIP respectively and 6th in ERA at 4.24.
Meanwhile the Jays rotation kept up with their performance after adding Francisco Liriano from the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their staff ranks top three in all categories; second in FIP and xFIP. Successful seasons from Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, and Francisco Liriano means the Blue Jays are built for success in a series; here they are needing to win a one game slugfest in a season where their biggest star took a vicious right hand.
A slugfest it will be, that’s all the Orioles do; they out-hit their own defense. Mark Trumbo was the MLB home run king this season with 47 dingers. Those long balls were only good enough for 2.2 fWAR. He’s a true outcome player and is representative of this squad’s style. Chris Davis sent 38 balls into the seats and mustered a 2.8 WAR. Their slick fielding third baseman, Manny Machado, carries all of the other dimensions for this team; his bat and glove resulted in 6.4 wins this year — good enough for 5th in the AL.
The Blue Jays can slug as well. They feature the reigning AL MVP in third baseman Josh Donaldson; maybe no one playoff game has ever featured two players at the hot corner like this one. Donaldson can also put leather on the ball and was involved in the MVP chatter most of the season — he finished behind Mike Trout and Mookie Betts with a 7.6 WAR. Donaldson’s 37 home runs weren’t enough to top teammate Edwin Encarnacion who finished with 42. O’s and Jays figure to go blow for blow in this bout — it’s up to the starting pitchers to bob and move through the strike zone.
Starting Pitchers
Marcus Stroman, Toronto Blue Jays:
Stroman is an electrifying personality on the mound and aspiring hip-hop artist off of it; he’s one of the more dynamic players in the game. Stroman’s 4.37 ERA wasn’t good enough to be found on most traditional leaderboards, but the advanced statics love him; He rates out with MLB’s 13th best xFIP and 20th in Baseball Prospectus’ pitcher WAR, pWARP. He misses bats with a good curveball, features a mid-90s fastball and a worm-burner of a sinker-cutter combination; his ground ball rate of 60.1% ranks second in MLB. Stroman’s stuff ranks amongst the best in the game.
Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles:
Chris Tillman wasn’t expected to be the Orioles’ most consistent pitcher this season after a poor 2015, but he was. The O’s hoped young fireballers Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy would usurp the title of ace, but it’s debatable if that has happened. Tillman got off to a great first half, but struggled down the stretch; he missed time with a shoulder injury and ultimately posted a 4.45 ERA, 4.20 FIP and 4.88 xFIP. Tillman gets generates whiffs with his 93 mph four-seamer and cutter with heavy action; his curveball features a ton of bite but mostly generates ground balls.
Edge: Jays
Lineups
First Base: Chris Davis (.221/.332/.459, 2.8 WAR) vs. Edwin Encarnacion (.263/.357/.529, 3.8 WAR).
Edge: Jays
Second Base: Jonathan Schoop (.267/.298/.454, 2.0 WAR) vs. Devon Travis (.300/.332/.454, 2.4 WAR).
Edge: Jays.
Third Base: Manny Machado (.294/.343/.533, 6.4 WAR) vs. Josh Donaldson (.284/.404/.549, 7.6 WAR).
Edge: Draw.
Shortstop: J.J. Hardy (.269/.309/.407, 2.3 WAR) vs. Troy Tulowitzki (.254/.318/.443, 2.7 WAR) — Advanced fielding statistics say both are pretty good.
Edge: Jays — but it’s close.
Left Field: Hyun Soo Kim (.302/.382/.420, 0.9 WAR) vs. Ezequiel Carrera (.248/.323/.356, 0.6 WAR) — Defense goes to Carrera according advanced metrics.
Edge: O’s — Kim’s on-base base skills and low K% (14.7) overcome the defense.
Center Field: Adam Jones (.265/.310/.436, 1.4 WAR) vs. Kevin Pillar (.266/.303/.376, 3.2 WAR) — Kevin Pillar is superman in the outfield.
Edge: Jays
Right Field: Michael Bourn (.264/.314/.371, 0.3 WAR) vs. Jose Bautista (.234/.366/.452, 1.5 WAR)
Edge: Jays
Designated Hitter: Mark Trumbo (.256/.316/.533, 2.2 WAR) vs. Michael Saunders (.253/.338/.478, 1.4 WAR)
Edge: O’s
Catcher: Matt Wieters (.243/.302/.409, 1.7 WAR) vs. Russell Martin (.231/.335/.398, 1.9 WAR) — Looks close, but Martin is an elite framer and is MLB’s fourth best in FRAA; Wieters ranks near the bottom.
Edge: Jays
The Blue Jays are heavy favorites to win tonight, but they were favorites to win the AL East at various points throughout the season and the O’s took two out of three from the Jays just before the regular season ran out. The Orioles’ sluggers keep coming forward — no lead is safe. The bell rings at 8PM tonight; let’s get ready to rumble.
