Baltimore Orioles 2016-17 Offseason Review
It’s a bit difficult to predict where the Baltimore Orioles currently are, and where they’re headed. Baltimore is a team capable of making it further than they did in 2016. At the same time, it would shock very few people if they took a big step back.
It was a disappointing end to an otherwise encouraging 2016 season for the Baltimore Orioles. After finishing second in the American League East behind the Boston Red Sox, the Orioles found themselves in the AL Wild Card game, where they were promptly eliminated by the Toronto Blue Jays.
After spending heaps of money to keep their team intact following the 2015 season, the Baltimore Orioles are now a team with a couple of big question marks. Be that as it may, this team still has a whole lot of potential, particularly in their lineup.
Baltimore’s 2016 Story
Having missed the playoffs in 2015, the O’s managed to make it back to the postseason in 2016. It was only a Wild Card appearance, and the team lost in heartbreaking fashion, but it was a postseason appearance nonetheless.
Going 89–73, the Orioles finished four games back of the Red Sox landing in second place in the AL East. How did they do it? Well, to put it simply, the O’s hit bombs. In 2016, Baltimore led all of Major League Baseball in home runs by a wide margin with 253. To give you some perspective, the St. Louis Cardinals ranked second with 225 home runs.
The Orioles may have had their holes in 2016, but there was no lack of power in their lineup. Baltimore had six players who hit over 20 home runs, with three players hitting over 30.
This power was headlined by first baseman/outfielder Mark Trumbo, who led the league in home runs with a whopping 47. After hitting only 22 long balls with both the Arizona Diamondbacks and Seattle Mariners in 2015, Trumbo made it a comeback year, making his second all-star appearance and winning a Silver Slugger award. Trumbo also posted a wRC+ of 123, second best on the team.
In an effort to retain the previous year’s power hitters (Baltimore was third in the league in home runs in 2015), the Orioles handed out the richest contract in team history in January of 2016, giving first baseman Chris “Crush” Davis a seven year, $161 million deal.
Davis did hit for considerable power in 2016, but the veteran slugger also experienced a drop in production in almost every category. In 2015, Davis slashed .262/.361/.562 with 47 home runs. In 2016, he posted a slash line of .221/.332/.459 with 38 home runs. Davis played at an MVP level in 2015, with a 148 wRC+ while also being worth 5.6 WAR. The 2016 season saw Davis’s wRC+ decrease to 111 while being worth only 2.7 WAR.
Now, with 38 home runs and 84 RBI in 2016, Davis was still a serviceable producer. But for the O’s to contend again this season, he’ll need to deliver better all-around numbers.
Adam Jones is another player who will need to get back on track for the O’s to succeed. A 3.6 WAR player in 2015, Jones’s WAR was a meager 1.4 in 2016. Part of why his WAR was more than halved has to do with his defense. Jones is a four-time Gold Glove award winner, but his defense last season was uncharacteristic of his usual standards, producing a -0.6 dWAR. The O’s will need him to return to being a solid defender this year.
If there’s one player who hasn’t faltered on this team as of late, it’s third baseman/shortstop Manny Machado. Of all the players on Baltimore’s roster, Machado seems like the only one who is a lock to play at an elite level for years to come. Only 24 years old, Machado has already won two Gold Glove awards and a Platinum Glove award. And to top it all off, he’s a three-time all-star.
Machado hasn’t just been good, he’s been MVP-caliber good. Arguably the best third baseman in the American League, Machado produced 6.8 WAR in 2015 and 6.5 WAR in 2016. Last season he slashed .294/.343/.533 with 37 home runs and 96 RBI.
There are a quite a few question marks on this team, but Machado is not one of them. He’s almost certain to be one of the top, elite players in the league this season.
The biggest area of concern for Baltimore lies in their starting pitching staff. The O’s have a rotation that is hard to peg. It’s made up of a relatively young group of starters, who often struggled to pitch deep into games in 2016.
Baltimore’s best starter in 2016 was 26-year-old Kevin Gausman. Named as the Opening Day starter for the Orioles this season, the young right-hander went 9–12 with a 3.61 ERA over 179 2/3 innings pitched in 2016. And with an impressive 8.72 K/9 ratio, Gausman could be overtaking Chris Tillman as the team’s new ace.
Chris Tillman was Baltimore’s Opening Day starter for the last three years. One could argue he would be filling that role again this year if not for a sore right shoulder. Tillman went 16–6 with a 3.77 ERA over 172 innings pitched last season. It was a tale of two halves, though: after making it to the All-Star break going 12–2 with a 3.41 ERA, Tillman finished the second half of the season going 4–4 with a 4.45 ERA.
The Orioles’ worst starting pitcher (minimum of 140 IP) was Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez went 8–12 with a 5.44 ERA (81 ERA+) over 142 1/3 innings pitched. The Orioles will need a much better season from him if they want to compete with the Red Sox and Blue Jays. That in itself should give you a good idea of the state of the Orioles’ rotation.
Yovani Gallardo was the Orioles’ big free agent pitching signing over the 2015–16 offseason. Now, Gallardo had a productive year with the Rangers in 2015, but if he’s your big catch of the offseason for your rotation, well…that’s not saying much. Unfortunately for the O’s, his effectiveness from the previous year did not carry over. In just 118 innings pitched, Gallardo went 6–8 with a 5.42 ERA and a 5.04 FIP.
Other young starters like Dylan Bundy and Mike Wright have plenty of potential, but it’s anyone’s guess whether or not they’ll live up to it this season.
The starting pitching was up and down, but the bullpen, however, was solid, and looks to stay that way in 2017. Last season the Orioles’ bullpen finished third in the league in ERA at 3.40.
The efficiency of the team’s bullpen was highlighted by closer Zach Britton, who had a historic run in 2016. Recording a 0.54 ERA, Britton had a streak of 24 consecutive saves and 43 straight games without giving up a run.
Brad Brach was the Orioles’ next best reliever, pitching to the tune of a 2.05 ERA over the course of 79 innings pitched. He’ll look to play a large role in the O’s’ bullpen once again.
Veteran Reliever Darren O’Day struggled with nagging injuries last season. He posted a 3.77 ERA after only pitching 31 innings. Having a healthy O’Day will be another key for the Orioles to find success this season.
The Orioles’ season came to a halt when they lost to the Toronto Blue Jays in the AL Wild Card game. In what has become one of the most controversial playoff decisions of all-time, Orioles manager Buck Showalter elected not to use all-star closer Zach Britton. The result of that game may have been different had Showalter put him in. A peculiar choice from someone many consider to be one of the better managers in baseball; Showalter has had the O’s playing winning baseball since he took over in 2010, with a record of 574–482 (.532).
The Offseason
The biggest move the O’s made was bringing back Mark Trumbo, the source of most of their power. Though he’s one of the best power hitters in the league right now, it may be wise for the Orioles to consider using him more as a DH if possible, as Trumbo finished 2016 with an awful dWAR of -2.1.
Other than that, Baltimore did a whole lot of nothing this offseason. That’s not to say they literally did nothing, but they didn’t do anything substantial either.
Shortly after the season ended, the Orioles acquired right-handed pitcher Logan Verrett from the New York Mets for cash considerations. Verrett struggled with the Mets last season, going 3–8 with a 5.20 ERA over 91 1/3 innings pitched.
After losing long-time franchise catcher Matt Wieters to the Washington Nationals in free agency, the Orioles signed 29-year-old catcher Wellington Castillo to a one year, $6 million deal. Castillo is a career .255 hitter with moderate power.
In January, the Orioles traded pitcher Yovani Gallardo to the Seattle Mariners to acquire outfielder Seth Smith. Smith, 34, is a 10-year league veteran with a career slash line of .261/.344/.447.
The Orioles also brought back first baseman/DH Pedro Alvarez on a minor league deal. Alvarez, who slashed .249/.322/.504 with 22 home runs, will start the season in AAA, as the O’s are attempting to convert him into an outfielder.
What Wasn’t Answered?
Going into the offseason, the O’s had two big concerns: starting pitching and outfield defense. And to address those concerns, they brought on pitcher Logan Verrett (career 4.65 ERA), outfielder Seth Smith (-7.9 UZR in 2016), and slugger Pedro Alvarez, who’s never played the outfield in his career.
So, in other words, the Orioles didn’t solve any of their problems at all. It’s realistic to think Adam Jones is capable of improving his outfield defense, but Seth Smith and Pedro Alvarez hardly seem like considerable upgrades defensively.
The starting rotation is also basically the same as it was last season. At this point, Logan Verrett merely feels like insurance. If everyone can stay healthy, then the Orioles’ rotation has a chance to at least be decent, but by-and-large, this is the same pitching staff they had last year.
The Orioles are a team very much capable of making the playoffs again, but they did very little to improve their chances. None of their offseason moves were bad, but they seem to be quick-fixes rather than real attempts to bolster their roster.
The 2017 Outlook
This Orioles team, as it stands, could be a bit unpredictable. With largely the same team as they had last year, Baltimore should have their sights set on the playoffs once again.
The starting rotation is probably mediocre at best, but with the power the Orioles’ lineup possesses, that could wind up being good enough to get them back to the postseason.
At the same time, this is a team that could very easily crash and burn. Lineups that rely heavily on home runs tend to go through slumps. Sometimes those slumps come late in the season and last long enough to take you out of playoff contention.
If Baltimore continues to hit for crazy power like they have been, and the rotation doesn’t lay a giant egg, expect the Orioles squeak back into the playoffs this season. If neither of those things happen, then it’s October golf for the Baltimore Orioles.
Overall Offseason Grade: D+
Projected 2017 Record: 85–77
