Blake Snell is Still a Work in Progress
After taking two out of three from the Yankees to open the season, the Rays lost the first game of a four-game series against the Blue Jays behind young left-hander Blake Snell.
In 2017, the Tampa Bay Rays will live and die with the performance of their starting pitching. The Rays offense appears to be better on paper than it was in 2016, but there are still significant holes that keep them from being a top-notch offense. So far through four games, it’s clear the Rays pitching staff will be even more important, considering the Rays have scored only 13 runs in those games.
The offensive struggles are once again rearing their head, but the Rays have had several strong pitching performances so far this season. Chris Archer was strong over seven innings on Opening Day and Alex Cobb looked solid now that he appears fully healthy following his Tommy John surgery and recovery. The problem for the Rays is that those starts came on the first and third games of the year and were sandwiched by worse starts from Jake Odorizzi and Blake Snell.
Now Odorizzi struggled and gave up four earned runs in his first start of the year, but I want to focus on Snell, who started for the Rays against the Toronto Blue Jays on Thursday night. In terms of his final line, Snell didn’t really have a bad start: six and two-thirds innings, only three hits against a very good Blue Jays offense, and four earned runs. However, the biggest thing that stands out for Snell is the five walks he issued in his six plus innings of work.
Despite excelling as he moved through the Rays minor league system, walks were one issue that always seemed to come back to hurt Snell. Although Snell looked impressive in his major league debut in 2016, posting a 3.54 ERA and 3.39 FIP in just under 90 innings, his 5.16 BB/9 told a bit of a different story. Snell excelled at accumulating strikeouts (9.91 K/9) and limiting hard contact, but his control issues held him back from having an even better debut.
And Snell’s first start of 2017 was no different.
After cruising through the first two innings against the Blue Jays deep lineup, in which Snell struck out three and walked only one while giving up no hits, things started to come apart in the third inning. After getting Kevin Pillar out to start the inning, Darwin Barney drove a single into left field for the first Jays hit of the evening. Following a strikeout of Steve Pearce to get the second out of the inning, Snell walked both Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista to load the bases.
With the bases loaded and two out, one of the new Toronto Blue Jays Kendrys Morales came to the plate. After fouling off the first pitch of the at-bat, Morales got an elevated, 95-mph fastball that caught way too much of the plate and he hit the ball 444 feet with an exit velocity of 108.8 mph off the bat. Just like that, Snell’s first start of the year quickly came unraveled.
As you can see from that video, Snell left a 95-mph fastball right down the middle for Morales to hit. After struggling to throw the ball in the strike zone against the previous few hitters, Snell caught too much of the strike zone against Morales. As seen below, Snell was having trouble locating the entire third inning.
Although Snell lost out on a few close calls on the edges of the strike zone, he was much further outside on several different occasions in that inning, especially against both Donaldson and Bautista. For Snell, his whole start came undone in one inning.
Following that rough third inning, Snell calmed down, giving up zero hits and walking only one hitter from the fourth through sixth innings. However, things got a little dicey for Snell in the seventh, as he walked the first batter of the inning and gave up a single to Justin Smoak to put two runners on with no outs. After getting Pillar to fly out, Snell gave up an unearned run on a botched play by Logan Morrison on a bunt attempt by Darwin Barney. Snell got Steve Pearce to fly out for the second out of the inning before he was removed for relief pitcher Tommy Hunter.
All told, Snell showed both flashes of brilliance and bouts of his maddening inconsistency. On Thursday, as it was for various periods in 2016, it was a tale of two pitchers in Blake Snell. The same guy that can blow hitters away with a mid-90s fastball and a strong changeup/slider combo can also hurt himself with self-inflicted wounds because of poor control on his pitches. In his first start of 2017, Snell showed he can excel when he commands the strike zone, but he can quickly fall apart if that command falters even slightly.
Snell maintained consistent pitch usage to where he was at in 2016, throwing 60 fastballs, 17 changeups, nine sliders, and six curveballs. With the fastball, Snell had some trouble with missing up in the zone, while he missed low on ten different off-speed pitches, including five curveballs, three changeups, and two sliders. He did get some swings and misses out of the zone, but he wasn’t fooling Jays hitters as much on those pitches outside of the zone, as Snell got only five swinging strikes on the night compared to 16 called strikes.
There was a lot to take away from Blake Snell’s first start of the 2017 season. While Snell showed some flashes of the dominant strikeout pitcher he can be, his lack of command once again reared its ugly head. Going forward, Snell is going to have to limit walks and continue to improve his swinging strike percentage if he can reach his full potential. The Rays could have yet another ace-level pitcher on their hands if Snell can work out the kinks. If the Rays hope to make the playoffs, they need the best possible version of Snell going forward.
