Boston Red Sox 2016–17 Offseason Review
Picked as heavy favorites to win the American League headed into the 2016 playoffs, Boston fell short. Now, the BoSox have reloaded and might be an unstoppable force.
So few athletes are able to write a storybook ending to their careers — even fewer in baseball. Joe DiMaggio might be the greatest player to finish his career with a championship. Tony La Russa also pops to mind when storybook endings are considered in baseball. And, of course, David Ross wrote the final chapter that every athlete dreams of in last year’s World Series.
But the Red Sox were hoping it would be David Ortiz last year. After a farewell tour that had some questioning why the 40-year-old wanted to retire, it seemed that Big Papi might get one more ring before hanging up the cleats. We all know how that went though.
Now a full winter is in the books without Big Papi as an active player in MLB. And it was clear that Boston took the quick exit from the playoffs a little personally as they made several moves — moves that have quickly turned Boston into a popular World Series pick this year.
Boston’s 2016 Story
Boston played the underdog all last summer. Both Toronto and Baltimore seesawed from June through August for control of the AL East. But when it counted most, Boston took full control and watched as those two teams crumbled just enough for Boston to win the division.
During that time frame, Boston established itself as one of the most complete teams in all of baseball. The All-Star Game may have been filled with Chicago Cubs players on the NL side of things but the AL was littered with Boston Red Sox players. Mookie Betts, David Ortiz, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Xander Bogaerts all started for the American League. The Red Sox also had Craig Kimbrel and Steven Wright on the roster. And Dustin Pedroia was a likely vote-in candidate had it not been for all of Canada voting in Michael Saunders.
Boston’s 93–69 record was a testament to their talent level. The BoSox didn’t lose often. And they were successful on the road (46–35) as much as they were at home (47–34). The Red Sox had little to fear. But perhaps their lowest point in the season came at the worst possible time: the final week of the season. From September 27 through October 2, the Red Sox went 1–5 as they were swept by the New York Yankees and only took one out of three against the Blue Jays. That loss of momentum very well might have played a big part in their collapse to the eventual AL Champions, the Cleveland Indians.
Nonetheless, the Boston faithful were hopeful going into the playoffs. For one, they had David Price (oh how naive we always are, assuming he will change this time in the playoffs) and Craig Kimbrel. Add in eventual Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and two top 10 MVP vote-getters (Mookie Betts finished second, Ortiz at sixth) and Boston had a legitimate chance to rag doll Cleveland.
Hanley Ramirez was a firecracker for the offense; Ramirez hit .286/.361/.505 through the year while blasting 30 home runs and doubling another 28 times. Boston had two guys who had gone all the way with Boston multiple times in Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia.
However, Boston was the one who got rag dolled. The mentality going into the series was, “Just get one of the first two and we’re on to the next round.” Heck, I remember sitting with my friend from the Boston area after the first game, a 5–4 loss. He had told me “This is okay; that’s nowhere near as good as we can be. This is our floor, that was their ceiling.” Oh, how wrong he was…
The Offseason
The biggest loss the Boston Red Sox suffered this offseason was obviously David Ortiz due to retirement. Big Papi put in a .315/.401/.620 slash, 38 home runs, and another 48 doubles in 2016 while accumulating a 163 wRC+. His BABIP was only slightly above league average at .312 but his .305 ISO was what really gave Papi’s last ride the spotlight.
Aside from Ortiz, the Red Sox waved goodbye to three of their key relievers: Koji Uehara, Junichi Tazawa, and Brad Ziegler. While Ziegler had only arrived last summer, Uehara and Tazawa had been mainstays in Boston’s bullpen for years. The three relievers put together 11 saves and a cumulative WHIP of 1.14 for Boston last year as they brought dominance in late innings and viable secondary options to Craig Kimbrel.
Later in the offseason, the BoSox sent away other key pieces on their roster in trades. Up and coming third baseman Travis Shaw was sent to the Milwaukee Brewers for Tyler Thornburg (more on that later). While Pablo Sandoval is balling out in Spring Training right now and might be on the verge of a career resurgence, the loss of Shaw will be felt in years to come as the 26-year-old comes into his own as an offensive threat. The Mayor of Ding Dong City started 2016 out hot, batting .295 through May and hitting seven ding dongs. And while he regressed to a .242/.306/.421 slash by the end of the season with only 16 homers, Shaw’s potential shone through in those first two months.
Longtime rotation piece Clay Buchholz was also sent away to the Philadelphia Phillies for Josh Tobias, a second base prospect. Buchholz played several different roles for the Red Sox last year, appearing in 37 games but only starting in 21 of them. The righty had difficulty finding a space in the rotation after the acquisition of Chris Sale this winter, so it was time for the BoSox and Buchholz to part ways.
The acquisitions Boston made counteracted nearly all of their losses and made the team better in the end. Boston made two big trades on December 6; the first was Travis Shaw (and prospects) sent to Milwaukee for Tyler Thornburg; second, Boston traded four prospects, including top prospects Yoan Moncada and Michael Kopech, to the Chicago White Sox for Chris Sale.
Thornburg put together his best season of his career in 2016 with 13 saves for the Brewers (making up those saves lost from Tazawa, Uehara, and Ziegler’s departures) and put together a WHIP of 0.94. Thornburg’s 2.83 FIP was better than even Kimbrel’s 2.92 FIP. Thornburg’s true value comes in the fact that he left 81 percent of runners on base while on the mound and he was able to create ground balls nearly one-third of the time at a 32.4 percent rate, creating more opportunities for his defense to prevent base runners from progressing. When not allowing contact, Thornburg was able to strike batters out often, as the righty struck out 90 batters in 67 innings last season, giving himself a 12.09 K/9.
The real coup de grace for the Red Sox was the acquisition of Chris Sale. Little needs to be said about Sale, a perennial Cy Young candidate. Sale is about to enter his prime, turning 28 right before the season begins, and has had a career highlighted by 14 complete games, a 1.04 WHIP, and 1,244 strikeouts. Sale joins 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and David Price which gives the Red Sox one of, if not the best, rotations in MLB.
The pitching staff wasn’t the only part of the roster that received an addition. The Red Sox also added Mitch Moreland at first base. Moreland brings a steady bat to the lineup (.254/.315/.438 slash through his seven year career with 110 home runs and 98 wRC+) but his true value lies in his defense. In 2016, Moreland ranked second among qualified first basemen in UZR at 6.4; only Wil Myers ranked higher with an 8.0 UZR. And while Moreland was behind Myers by over 200 innings, the former Ranger was the best first baseman on UZR/150 with a 9.4. Moreland also tied with Adrian Gonzalez as the first baseman who recorded the least amount of errors last year with just two.
What wasn’t answered?
The Boston Red Sox live in a state of privilege at the moment. They filled all the holes that they needed to. Perhaps they could have signed an Edwin Encarnación or Mark Trumbo to play as an everyday DH, but with the signing of Mitch Moreland, Hanley Ramirez (who developed a very close bond with Big Papi, so much that he may be another incarnation of the slugger) can fill that role.
Maybe another outfielder would have helped with depth; the outfield will likely consist of Andrew Benintendi in left, Jackie Bradley Jr. in center, and Mookie Betts in right, and Chris Young as the fourth outfielder while super utility man Brock Holt fills in when needed.
And perhaps that bullpen could have used another hand. Boston did lose three regular relievers and only gained one after all. But Carson Smith is expected to return later this season and the bullpen is still anchored by Kimbrel, Thornburg, Joe Kelly, and a handful of young upstarts. Drew Pomeranz is likely to be moved back into the bullpen as Eduardo Rodríguez and Steven Wright seem to have won out in the battle for rotation spots. Not to mention all the pitching talent down on the farm; Henry Owens could begin filling a role in the pen if he can’t begin to find a rhythm as a major league starter.
Overall, the Red Sox are just about as ready for a run at the World Series as an Opening Day roster could be. Boston will start 2017 as one of the favorites to go all the way.
The 2017 Outlook
The 2017 season is ripe with potential for the BoSox. There are hardly any holes on the roster and the team is filled with all-star talent all across the board.
Let’s begin with the rotation. If all goes well, Boston will have the best rotation in baseball behind Cy Young winner Porcello, Sale, and Price as a one-two-three punch. Seeing even one of those pitchers during a series can make opposing teams quake in their boots but the potential of seeing all three? Yikes. This is all, of course, theoretical at this point. Price is resting at the moment on doctor’s orders to prevent any injuries to his left elbow. If that elbow flares up, that rotation becomes less scary.
Luckily, the rotation has great depth. Wright was an All-Star last season and Rodríguez doesn’t turn 24 until April 7, encouragement that the young star still has a very high ceiling.
The bullpen is not nearly as deep as last year, which was discussed earlier. The potential is there with two elite relievers headlining the pen in Kimbrel and Thornburg. Afterward, though, a lot is left up to chance. Smith has the opportunity to perform when he returns from his Tommy John surgery. But TJ surgery has also been known to change and even ruin some pitchers’ careers, although that is becoming less the case as medical technology moves forward. Kelly will likely be the go-to guy for John Farrell when he needs a relief arm to stretch out a few innings. But afterward, the bullpen has several question marks. An Andrew Miller-esque trade at this summer’s deadline could make this team a lock for a World Series run.
Benintendi, amazingly, still has rookie status in MLB. His 34 game stint in the majors last year included a .295/.359/.476 slash with two home runs, 11 doubles, and a triple. If he continues on that pace, a Rookie of the Year award could very well be in his future.
The rest of the outfield has a pair of rising superstars in Bradley Jr. and Betts. Betts put together an MVP season last year, falling short to the indomitable Mike Trout, while JBJ went after Joe DiMaggio’s 56-game hit streak, although he only made it to 29 games in a row. Bogaerts also put in 26 games straight. While both JBJ and Bogaerts cooled off substantially after their hitting streaks (in the first half of 2016, Bradley Jr. hit .296 and Bogaerts hit .329 while in the second half JBJ hit .233 while Bogaerts hit .253), they both solidified themselves as elite hitters.
Third base is the biggest question mark on Boston’s roster. With the departure of Shaw and no addition in the offseason at the hot corner, Boston has put all their stock in a career resurrection for Sandoval.
The Panda looks fantastic in Spring Training so far putting in a .362/.375/.660 slash and banging three dingers. Perhaps he has accepted the position as new Mayor of Ding Dong City? Either way, Sandoval will need to prove his weight loss and Spring Training stats mean more than just good looking numbers on paper.
The BoSox also have a strong catching unit led by Sandy Leon, who hit an eye-popping .310 last season. Christian Vasquez is a solid backup and if an emergency strikes, Blake Swihart can answer the call for a limited amount of time. The unit is also young, Leon is 28, Vasquez is 26, and Swihart is 24. The future is bright behind the plate for Boston with such a surplus of youth.
Finally, and this could be the key factor in 2017, Boston has leadership. Pedroia and Ramirez will be the elder statesmen looked to lead the team. Pedroia’s experience with the franchise, winning two World Series, will likely make him the de facto clubhouse leader and a great one at that. His ten year career has been defined by consistency. The 32-year-old slashed .318/.376/.449 last season and looks far from slowing down. His defense ranked second among second basemen with a 12.5 UZR. If Father Time is catching up to Pedroia, it has yet to show.
Ramirez has faith from the entire organization that he can be a leader for the young team. And like any good veteran, he is still looking for ways to improve his game. Something Big Papi is happy to help with. His 30 dingers last season indicate he’s still got a tank of gas as he begins to enter his mid-30s and it should motivate the younger players to compete and keep pace with Hanley.
The potential is there for Boston. Their window is still wide open with such a young core in place. But the trade for Sale made the Red Sox all in on a championship effort this year. The Red Sox must take advantage of their elite level players and win a ring sooner rather than later.
The 2017 season is the perfect year to put it together. Price’s elbow remains a slight concern but Boston breathed a huge sigh of relief when his MRIs came back negative and he was just advised to rest for 7–10 days.
The sky is truly the limit for this Red Sox team, they need only put all the pieces together.
