Can Moncada Steal the Show?
The number one prospect in all of baseball may have have a chance to play a role Red Sox fans are familiar with.
No organization knows the difference a great casting company can make like the Boston Red Sox — how a perfectly selected role player can steal the show. In 2004, the stage was set for a dramatic showdown between the villainous New York Yankees and the perennial-underdog Boston Red Sox; mortal enemies and the American League championship crown on the line. Down a run in the ninth inning and facing elimination, Red Sox first baseman Kevin Millar was charged with the tall task of facing the incomparable Mariano Rivera — arguably the most dominant closer in a generation. Millar had one goal in mind — get on base no matter the means. He was good at that, posting a .383 OBP during the regular season. Millar was perfectly cast for the moment; he drew a walk and breathed hope into the uneasy hometown crowd.
The stakes were high and the tension was palpable, but now the large-bodied and plodding Red Sox first baseman had a new objective — to steal second base. In 1,427 career games, Millar managed to successfully swipe a total of seven bases. Millar’s role had changed and needed to be recast. To thunderous applause — as though he were Lin-Manuel Miranda — Dave Roberts appeared from the dugout to take Millar’s place. Roberts wasn’t on the roster to hit baseballs — he slashed .254/.337/.379 that season — his 38 stolen bases that season landed him the role of base path rabble-rouser. Plenty of ballplayers possess great speed but don’t translate that into stolen bases; a great base-stealer can take a base when everyone in the stadium knows he is going. Rivera had no doubt; with every lead Roberts took, Rivera forced him to dive back, bolstering Roberts’ conviction. Finally, in a moment that felt like it happened in slow-motion despite his speed, Rivera threw a pitch and Roberts was off — safe, his arm just getting under the tag. The rest was history, as Bill Mueller singled to drive Roberts in to tie the game, and David Ortiz performed the big home run finale in extra innings to close the show.
The 2016 Boston Red Sox are currently leading the AL wild card standings, just two games behind the Toronto Blue Jays for the AL East lead, and Fangraphs has their playoff odds at 80.1 percent. While the Blue Jays offer a balance of pitching and offense, the Red Sox are an explosive hard-hitting offensive juggernaut. They lead the majors in nearly every offensive category of importance:
OBP: First
Slugging: First
wRC+: First
wOBA: First
Straight teeth: First
If the Red Sox were to announce that they were calling up baseball’s best offensive prospect who could play a position that they were a tad weak at, it would be an embarrassing example of excess and greed in modern day capitalism.
Pigs! Yoan Moncada, 21, is one of the first legal Cuban imports since the trade embargo. In fact, in February 2015, Moncada helped to answer the ultimate capitalist question in baseball: How much does the draft suppress a player’s contract and how much is the best teenage amateur baseball player actually worth? The answer? A $31.5 million dollars bonus, or about $26 million over draft slot. That price has MLB owners clamoring for an international draft as the unfettered market is becoming too rich for their blood.
At 6' 2", 205 pounds, he is a big, stalky athletic switch-hitting middle-infielder. As Fangraphs points out, he has more tools than a Swiss Army knife.
Evaluators say Moncada has plus power from both sides of the plate, but that he shows more pop from the left side. In the field, he gets dinged for being a bit awkward around second base but projects to be average there. In 207 PAs at Double-A, Moncada has shown some patience with a 13 BB% and managed an impressive slash line for a middle-infielder at .277/.379/.531; his peripheral marks are equally good with a .254 ISO and 152 wRC+. However, Moncada does have a glaring red flag: there is a ton of swing and miss in his game; Moncada’s strikeout rate at Double-A currently sits at 30.9 percent. That is a number that will likely grow after skipping Triple-A for the big leagues.
If the Red Sox are already set offensively, why call up Moncada now? Is he just a September call-up who won’t challenge for a playoff roster spot? While he’s ultimately destined to start next season at Triple-A to work on his bat to ball skills, there’s another number that stands out for the baseball progeny — Moncada is an absolute thief. In 106 minor league games this season, he has stolen 45 bases. Evaluators have slapped a 70-grade on his wheels. A switch-hitting speedster with pop could carve out a spot on a playoff roster considering the trend toward rostering a guy who can nab a bag.
While Dave Roberts popularized the speedster specialist, he certainly wasn’t the first. Chone Figgins made his major league debut as a pinch-runner on August 25, 2002 for the Anaheim Angels. Figgins was rostered for the Angels’ playoff run and though he only had one PA for the World Series champions, he managed to score four runs and steal a base.
The year following Roberts’ “The Steal”, the Chicago White Sox carried some speed in Willie Harris. Harris wasn’t the strict specialist Figgins and Roberts were, but his speed became a difference maker regardless. In the 2005 playoffs, Harris got all of two PAs. He made them both count by getting two hits and stealing a bag. The second hit would set the table for Jermaine Dye to drive him in to score the only run of the Game Four World Series clincher for the White Sox — their first since 1917.
The Los Angeles Dodgers experimented with making the pinch-runner a developmental emphasis. They drafted Edwin Drexler, who is now out of baseball, purely to leverage his speed. They tried it again, but this time trying to salvage value in veteran minor leaguers, Kyle Hudson and Robbie Garvey. The experiment led to Hudson being released quickly, but Garvey is still trying to hang on as a 27-year-old with one tool.
The most recent examples of speed killing in the playoffs come from the 2015 World Champion Kansas City Royals. The Royals carried two pinch-running specialists for most of the postseason. Terrance Gore turned down offers to play running back at the University of Georgia and Georgia Tech so he could swipe 51 bases in 54 attempts for Gulf Coast Community College before being drafted by the Royals. Jarrod Dyson was also a prep school running back standout but agreed to sign with the Royals out of high school. In the 2015 postseason, the two combined for four stolen bases and four PAs — all four PAs coming from Dyson. Dyson would ultimately be the more memorable performer. Tied with the Mets in the 12th inning and featuring a three games to one lead in the World Series, Dyson took over for Salvador Perez after he singled. Dyson stole second base and then advanced to third on Alex Gordon’s groundout. Christian Colon then knocked in Dyson to score what would be the championship clinching run.
The trend toward pinch-running specialists isn’t likely a fad. Bullpens have been improving over the years. As Jonah Keri pointed out at FiveThirtyEight.com, relievers are more frequently than ever featuring gas in the later innings.
That increase in velocity has made a difference in the results. Bullpens have seen a dramatic improvement in OPS+ against over the past five decades.
Those numbers make late inning deficits seem even more dire to managers — it’s getting harder to move a runner across home plate as the game progresses. In one-run ballgames late, a stolen base at the right time not only injects some drama, it can really tip the run expectancy more in the losing team’s favor, as Beyond the Box Score pointed out:
Taking a risk on the bases is increasingly becoming a more attractive option, so it’s wise to have someone with the skill set
Yoan Moncada is going to be given every chance to audition for a prominent role in the playoffs. His skill-set at the plate is undeniable, but an inability to make contact have done more than one star in early in their career. If Moncada’s development prevents him from being a leading man, there’s still a great chance he may find himself in a supporting role on baseball’s biggest stage.
