Defending the Barrel
Is tracking down the best-hit baseballs skill, scouting, or luck?
I am a huge fan of outfield defense. I spouted hundreds of words this offseason of how teams would be wise to forfeit offense to make sure they have as much territory covered as possible beyond the infield dirt.
I’m also a huge fan of the barrel. I spend much time every day running numbers regarding barrels to provide my Twitter audience (and myself) some entertainment.
But up to now, I have rarely combined my two favorite things in baseball. With roughly 80 percent of barrels landing as base hits, that means 20 percent of them are still caught by one of those defenders patrolling the outfield, leaving me plenty of the combined outcomes to enjoy.
With a barrel being the “best thing you can do at the plate with the bat,” it stands to reason catching a barrel is a really good thing the defender can do in the field. So I figured those are also worth tracking, and people may be entertained in hearing about those as well.
Here’s how I planned my study: While I would love to take a look at every single barrel which has been converted into an out, we’re nearing 1,000 such instances in MLB this year. I decided to narrow the field a bit and look at barrels with an exit velocity of at least 105 mph. Of the ~2,500 barrels of those types, only ~225, or less than 10 percent of those have been caught.
After running some totals on those, the team leaders weren’t promising in believing there is a correlation to “defending the barrel” and great outfield defenses. While the Boston Red Sox lead all of baseball with 16 “105+ barrels defended” and also lead MLB in team outfield UZR (per Fangraphs), the next few on the list don’t add up.
The Oakland Athletics have the second most barrels defended at 14 and rank dead last in outfield UZR. The Baltimore Orioles are next on the list with 12 and they’re 28th in MLB in UZR.
This did not discourage me, and I stuck with the study, and tried to figure out an explanation. In my outfield defense writings in the past, I have preached outfield defense is a team entity. I believe the entire three-man army in the outfield makes the asset complete. While there are great singular defensive talents in MLB today, I believe they are helped by their teammates, and they help their counterparts as well.
This is not to forget the other contributors to a great outfield defense: coaching… particularly scouting of the opposition. If you’re being put in a better position to make the play, it is going to make the play look easier.
This is where I’ll take the next step of my study. Are “barrel-saving” plays more often contributed to a great play by the singular player, could it be attributed to smart scouting of the opposing hitter, or could it just be chalked up to good old-fashioned luck?
We roughly see a 105-mph+ barrel defensed twice a day in a full baseball slate of games. I want to take a random sampling of the examples we have so far and see which of those categories listed above the catch falls in. I’ll take three plays randomly each month and describe what happened below.
Play 1: April 7 at Coors Field, Joc Pederson vs Carlos Estévez; ball caught by Charlie Blackmon
Batted ball details: 108.9 mph exit velocity, 17 degree launch angle
Using Baseball Savant’s lovely graphics on each batted ball, we can see Blackmon didn’t have to move very far from his initial starting location, which seems a relatively straight center field. At 17 degrees, Pederson didn’t get the ball far enough up in the thin air of Colorado and it was able to stay in the ballpark, unfortunately for him.
With Pederson being a powerful hitter, Blackmon was already playing deep. Plus, the Rockies were nursing a one-run lead at the time in the seventh inning with a runner on first. They would have certainly been playing a no-double defense.
However, Blackmon didn’t need an incredible read or great speed on the play. Our first example is mostly good fortune for Blackmon and the Colorado defense.
Play 2: April 9 at Chase Field, Carlos Santana vs Fernando Rodney; ball caught by David Peralta
Batted ball details: 105.2 mph exit velocity, 35 degree launch angle
Early in the season, the Arizona Diamondbacks closer had gotten himself into a situation. After Abraham Almonte knocked in an RBI single to make it a one-run game, Santana came up as the go-ahead run.
Santana came ever so close to being the hero, but Peralta instead took the title. The ball did hang up just long enough, but as the graphic shows, this ball was hit directly over the outfielder’s head, making it a difficult play.
It’s also worth noting Peralta wasn’t playing the line against the switch-hitting Santana — here batting left-handed — even in a usual no-double defense situation. Rodney’s fastball did come in at 96, perhaps that could have led to the team deciding to not as aggressively play the pull.
Credit has to be given to both the player’s talent and coaching on this one.
Play 3: April 14 at Yankee Stadium, Matt Adams vs Masahiro Tanaka; ball caught by Jacoby Ellsbury
Batted ball details: 106.9 mph exit velocity, 33 degree launch angle
Adams gave this one a ride and got unlucky due to Yankee Stadium’s vast center field. Ellsbury wasn’t playing him all that deep, but a high launch angle did give him more than enough time to get right to the wall and catch it. This out was mostly attributed to stadium luck.
Play 4: May 6 at SunTrust Park, Randal Grichuk vs Julio Teheran; ball caught by Ender Inciarte
Batted ball details: 107.2 mph exit velocity, 25 degree launch angle
Inciarte’s route looks interesting on the above graphic as you can almost tell he thought this ball was straight to his right, but may have started rising as it was absolutely tattooed by Grichuk.
When researching this play and watching the game, I caught an even better catch by Inciarte in the same inning on a Mike Leake (yes, that Mike Leake) line drive.
Ender Inciarte is very, very good in the outfield, and if there is an argument to a singular player being great independent of his teammates, it would be Inciarte. It’s worth noting in this game he was playing in between Matt Kemp and Nick Markakis, not exactly a great supporting corps.
Play 5: May 6 at Great American Ballpark, Eugenio Suarez vs Ty Blach; ball caught by Justin Ruggiano
Batted ball details: 107.4 mph exit velocity, 20 degree launch angle
This one was a true line drive and would have only been caught if the outfielder was standing in its path. Ruggiano did make an immediate break to his right, which was crucial. He was playing deep, perhaps because Blach had given up a home run to the prior batter.
Some credit does have to go around to being in the right spot and some good instincts by the outfielder.
Play 5: May 6 at Oakland Coliseum, Albert Pujols vs Liam Hendriks; ball caught by Jaff Decker
Batted ball details: 106.3 mph exit velocity, 18 degree launch angle
This play was in extra innings and was a nice read by Decker. Already playing deep with Pujols up, at this point still short of his 600th home run, Decker tracked down the line drive while still remaining aware of the wall.
As mentioned above, the Athletics somehow have many of these plays despite some overall terrible outfield defense shown this year. Decker isn’t a starter, but shows here he could be getting more time in the future if the team was looking to make an improvement on defense.
Play 7: June 9 at SunTrust Park, Matt Adams vs Matt Harvey; ball caught by Jay Bruce
Batted ball details: 108.7 mph exit velocity, 16 degree launch angle
Adams geting selected again, this time in a different uniform. Bruce nearly over-pursues the low liner, but essentially runs into the ball to make the play.
Bruce has recently been interviewed about his improvement in defensive metrics and was quoted as saying how the current numbers out there lean heavily on chances. He said when he was in Cincinnati with Billy Hamilton in center field, he didn’t have many chances due to the speedster tracking everything down on his own, cutting into Bruce’s opportunities.
When in New York, he had more chances, and made the most of it like he did right here.
Play 8: June 16 at Comerica Park, Steven Souza Jr. vs Justin Verlander; ball caught by Justin Upton
Batted ball details: 106.8 mph exit velocity, 20 degree launch angle
Another one hit right at the outfielder. Not much to this one, although Upton was noticeably playing quite deep.
Play 9: June 18 at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Joey Gallo vs Christian Bergman; ball caught by Jarrod Dyson
Batted ball details: 108.5 mph exit velocity, 38 degree launch angle
The initial point of a barrel — when the ball strikes the bat — can’t be cheated, but after that, the baseball is susceptible to many different influences. Gallo crushed this ball, but at that height, it was most likely affected by the Texas weather. This ball had 78 percent hit probability, the majority of which would be home runs, but this stayed within the ball park even at 408 feet.
Dyson had a lot of room to travel, and the time in the air even would have allowed the right fielder to make the play. The way this held up cuts into much of the skill or scouting that could be given.
Play 10: July 4 at Comerica Park, Buster Posey vs Michael Fulmer; ball caught by Mikie Mahtook
Batted ball details: 106.1 mph exit velocity, 26 degree launch angle
This one may be the biggest “rob” we’ve seen on the list. Not only did Posey hit this one a projected 408 feet which fell victim to the large Comerica outfield, but Mahtook made a great read on this one. Mahtook caught this in stride and you could definitely say not every outfielder makes this catch.
Mahtook wasn’t playing incredibly deep, but must have had the knowledge he’d be able to make the play going backwards. He was correct here, and was also slightly playing Posey to go opposite field, which worked in his favor as well.
Play 11: July 6 at Rogers Centre, George Springer vs Roberto Osuna; ball caught by Kevin Pillar
Batted ball details: 106.1 mph exit velocity, 26 degree launch angle
Glad I got a Pillar example because he has to be one of the most underrated outfielders in the game. This was hit straight at him and he made an excellent read, which caused him to flip his head both ways to keep a bead on it.
Play 12: July 30 at Safeco Field, Nelson Cruz vs Seth Lugo; ball caught by Michael Conforto
Batted ball details: 107.1 mph exit velocity, 38 degree launch angle
Possibly another weather-related luck situation as Conforto was leisurely able to walk under this one even with a 69 percent hit probability. Cruz hit this one pure, but the height kept it in the park; maybe another day, it would have been a different result.
Play 13: August 4 at Tropicana Field, Ryan Braun vs Sergio Romo; ball caught by Mallex Smith
Batted ball details: 105.6 mph exit velocity, 20 degree launch angle
Got the video of this one as MLB declared this one highlight-worthy due to Smith running into the fence after making the catch. Notice the “jut” in his route and you can surmise this wasn’t the most efficient path, but it was hit directly over his head.
It seemed risky playing Braun shallow, but Smith did not have to pay for it… other than the smash into the wall.
Play 14: August 14 at Globe Life Park in Arlington, Joey Gallo vs Michael Fulmer; ball caught by Mikie Mahtook
Batted ball details: 115.8 mph exit velocity, 13 degree launch angle
This is by far the hardest hit ball on the list, but it was directly in Mahtook’s path. I’m probably selling it short how difficult it is to catch a projectile hit at you over 115 mph.
Play 15: August 15 at Chase Field, George Springer vs Anthony Banda; ball caught by Chris Herrmann
Batted ball details: 107.7 mph exit velocity, 18 degree launch angle
This was the best catch of the bunch and a fantastic one to end on. It was so good it elicited this response from Springer.
Hermann had to have a perfect read, get to full speed, and lay out to grab the low liner from Springer.
Is he able to make the grab without the luxury of playing next to Pollock in center? Would he have been so close to the line if that wasn’t the case? Seems plausible, and leads to the argument of how an entire outfield defense can rise each individual.
Herrmann is a part-time catcher, so it’s not like he makes those catches routinely, but is an interesting case study to wrap up the entire list.
We had a nice mix in this sampling of plays made due to skill, luck, and some at least partially attributable to scouting. It would be impossible to say which of the three are the definitive source of why these are made, and more than likely it would be hard to predict on these repeating the same way in the future.
Moving forward, I plan on tweeting these out when these happen, real time. Please follow me on Twitter, as I’ll likely attempt an explanation of why the catch was able to be completed.
