Matt Varney

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Feb 23, 2017 · 4 min read

The Minnesota Twins have been in a state of limbo since they last reached the playoffs in 2010. It seemed like there was light at the end of the tunnel after a 2015 season that ended with an 83–79 record. But they regressed heavily in 2016, ending at 59–103.

The regression last year can be attributed to the arrival of all the long-awaited prospects Minnesota has been grooming. Byron Buxton, Miguel Sáno, Eddie Rosario, and José Berríos are now the players people come to the ballpark to see (and a 40-homer Brian Dozier).

The arrivals should continue with minor leaguers like Nick Gordon nearly ready. But Berríos is the only pitcher that seems to have a lengthy future with the club; the Twins need to focus on their pitching staff. Ervin Santana has never been a true ace. Phil Hughes has been up and down during his time with the Twins. Hector Santiago was a good get at the trade deadline last year but there is no guarantee that he’s with the Twins past this year.

The Twins have a deep reserve of pitchers down on the farm. The one that could see time first? Stephen Gonsalves.

What’s Got Us So Excited?

Gonsalves is a lefty that is more a technician than a flamethrower, which adds intrigue to where he fits in a major league rotation. Billed as a mid-rotation guy, Gonsalves could fall anywhere on a major league roster depending on his consistency.

During 24 games last year (11 in High-A and 13 in Double-A), Gonsalves owned an FIP of 2.65. His BABIP-against was a ridiculous .252. Gonsalves may be pitching against minor leaguers but he has been able to hold his BABIP under .300 upon appearing in five games at any level except for once: 2014, Single-A, 8 games, .326 BABIP.

To add to this excitement, Gonsalves can strike out batters regularly. Upon arrival in Double-A last year, Gonsalves made sure his presence was felt, accumulating a K/9 of 10.8 by the end of the season at that level. During his four seasons in pro ball, the lefty has put in a 9.7 K/9.

Expectations

Gonsalves has all the tools to make it to the big leagues and be successful in a major league rotation. The left-hander has a low-90s fastball that could still improve to the mid-90s with his 6-foot-5 frame. And that fastball is supplemented by a plus fader; his changeup grades out at 60, easily the best pitch in his arsenal.

Gonsalves also uses a pair of breaking balls, but they are the reason he’s had such a slow ascent in his four years. He sports a 50-grade curve, something that has gotten better with time, but he has a 40-grade slider that he needs to improve before thinking about using at higher levels. His control also grades out at 50, something that can be upon improved if his curveball and slider improve as well.

Despite his struggles with his breaking balls, Gonsalves can lean back on his consistently impressive opponents’ batting average. Last year alone, Gonsalves posted a .179 across High-A and Double-A, striking out 155 batters along the way. That’s results that work for Gonsalves. Improving his breaking balls can only make him more of a fearsome force as he climbs up the ladder.

How Long Will He Be Highlighted On My Scorecard?

The Twins must be excited to get to work with Gonsalves. The number three prospect in the organization in 2016, and currently the #10 lefty in the minors according to MLB.com, Gonsalves is a project that the Twins want in the majors sooner rather than later.

He is just 22 years old and still needs some seasoning in the minors but overall the lefty could be up in September for the Twins to get a better look at him in the Show.

But above everything, the Twins should want him to get back to working on his breaking balls. That will be best done with his everyday coaches, guys that know him better than anybody in the minors. Gonsalves should have a small taste of working with major league talent and coaches — something that should motivate him to find his way back up top in September.

Estimated date sent back down to the minors: March 8