Season in Review: 2016 Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers couldn’t pitch their way out of 2016, but the front office did pitch in to build their future.
Just two seasons ago Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Matt Garza had told rotation mate Jeff Samardzija, who was still with the Chicago Cubs, to “pitch your way out of there.” The previous season, Garza and Samardzija were the veteran leaders of a Cubs staff on a club that was on year two of a painful “down to the studs” rebuild. Garza was sent away that year by the Cubs in a trade and signed with the Brewers for the 2014 season — a team whose future he must have been bullish about to sign a guaranteed four-year deal. Fast forward to 2015, Garza found himself on another club beginning a rebuild; fast forward to 2016 and save for a couple of pieces of original drywall, Garza’s — now 32 — home is down to the studs again and the club is battling it out with the Cincinnati Reds for the NL Central basement.
Entering 2016, Fangraphs wasn’t expecting much from the Brew Crew; their projected record was 72–90 — a .442 winning percentage. The Brewers haven’t disappointed, posting a 68–83 record to-date which comes out to a .450 winning percentage. 2016 wasn’t a total loss, however; increased playing time for developing players has unearthed some long-term pieces the organization can depend on, they shed some salary, the farm has picked up some interesting hands, and the team can look forward to a high draft pick in 2017. The best news might be that the losing may have bottomed out.
What happened in 2016?
Before the season even got underway, Brewers GM David Stearns pulled off a rare rebuild move — he traded a prospect for a young and talented MLB player. The Houston Astros projected to be contenders in the AL West felt comfortable enough with their infield to deal Jonathan Villar for the Brewers’ 2014 third rounder, Cy Sneed. Villar, 25, is a switch-hitting shortstop who has become a revelation this season. He has slashed .284/.367/.444, and those on-base skills have resulted in 54 stolen bases — though he does strike out nearly a quarter of the time.
Villar wasn’t the first time the Brewers front office hit on an underachieving talent. In 2015 the Detroit Tigers tried to sneak 24-year-old utility-man Hernan Perez through waivers. The Brewers gobbled him up. The now 25-year-old has provided the current Brewers roster with positional flexibility, some pop (.164 ISO & .436 SLG), and some speed (31 SBs) — good enough for 1.1 WAR to-date. Snagging Villar amounts to a positional windfall for a rebuilding club like the Brewers, but the super-utility players are en vogue and Perez could continue to grow into that roll.
The Brewers also started the year off with a much better stockpile of organizational talent. According to Baseball America, their farm system ranked 29th in 2014 and 21st in 2015 — heading into 2016, they were 9th. That ranking should only improve after trading Jean Segura, Khris Davis, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jonathan LuCroy for prospects; by the time the trade deadline had past, the Brewers could boast about having six players on BA’s midseason top 100 list.
That organizational talent started to ripen in 2016 as the Brewers moved Villar off shortstop to make room for their number one prospect and top 20 in all of baseball 22-year-old Orlando Arcia. Like most youngsters breaking in, Arcia has struggled to find himself at the plate; he’s a high-contact approach type that projects to be a top of the lineup bat, but his .279 OBP and 22.1 K% could sentence him to the bottom of the order if he doesn’t straighten out. Arcia’s most dependable tool has always been his glove, which should keep him at shortstop long-term and make him a big-league regular regardless of whether or not the bat comes around.
The bump was supposed to be the place where the Brewers could hang their rebuild’s cap; instead it has amounted to a road bump. Matt Garza has looked his age in his 91.7 innings and did last night when the Brewers were stricken with their death blow from the Pittsburgh Pirates — Garza slinked off after four innings of coughing up five earned runs on eight hits. The Brewers still owe Garza $25.5 million for his age 33 and 34 seasons.
The season wasn’t much better for opening day starter Wily Peralta; his 4.92 FIP and 4.49 DRA campaign at the age of 27 likely no longer fits this organization’s projected window. 2016 Junior Guerra has been a bit of a revelation, but even his 2.81 ERA is outperforming his 4.29 DRA at age 31. The glimmer of amber of the staff’s pint of brew has been soft-tossing sinker-baller Zach Davies. Davies has been worth 3.5 wins this year, according to Baseball Prospectus, and his 3.92 ERA is supported by an even better 3.56 DRA. Despite the 23-year-old’s success in leading the staff, the Brewers rotation is 24th in DRA, 25th in FIP, 27th in cFIP, and 27th in K/BB — a mountain to climb for 2017, not just a bump.
Looking ahead to 2017
The Brewers will be looking to improve their rotation to support an offense that is on the rise. The infield is set with Villar, Arcia, Perez (UTIL), Scooter Gennett, and Chris Carter. Carter is 29, but won’t reach free agency until 2019 and is coming off a 36 homer (to-date) campaign as Milwaukee’s starting first baseman. The outfield will continue to be anchored by the veteran left fielder and face of the franchise, Ryan Braun, with the promising 23-year-old Domingo Santana patrolling right.
Center field is up for grabs in 2017, and that’s when a top farm system really comes in handy. The Lucroy/Jeffress deal returned a really nice option for the Brewers. Lewis Brinson is BA’s 30th ranked prospect and happens to profile up the middle in the outfield; Brinson brings power and leather. In 93 plate appearances at Triple-A, Brinson slashed .382/.387/.618. His walk rate is in question as his .455 BABIP isn’t sustainable, but his numbers at other levels in the minors have been mixed in that category. Look for Brinson to lock down the job come mid to late April.
The rotation should receive a boost from the farm as well. Davies will return to baffle hitters with his sinker/cutter combination and the rotation will feature many of the usual suspects in Guerra, Garza, and Jimmy Nelson. BA’s Top-100 pitching prospects Josh Hader (22) and Luis Ortiz (74) will look to disrupt those plans. Hader, 22, is a left-hander who throws in the mid-90s and features a K rate of 11.48/9 in 69 Triple-A innings this year; he struggles to control the zone a bit as he has also walked 4.70/9 on his way to a 3.81 FIP. Ortiz, who was also acquired in the Lucroy/Jeffress deal, is a big-bodied right-hander who has some conditioning questioning; he features a fastball that touches 97 and an untouchable wipe-out slider that leads to high K rates. Ortiz has yet to pitch above Double-A for the Crew, but he is only 20 and because of his 1.59/9 BB rate in 39.2 innings with the Brewers organization he flashes command beyond his years — suggesting he could be a quick riser.
If the Brewers can find their pitching version of Villar, they may be looking to compete for a Wild Card come 2018 and challenge the Cubs as soon as 2019. Realistically, they’re probably a year behind that timeline but they have tradeable veterans in Garza and Braun who could help accelerate the plan.
2016 may have been the transition from tear-down to rebuild for the Brewers. They feature a top farm and some notable young breakout performers. They’ll have a fine first round pick to boost their stockpile of young talent further in 2017 and will likely have a protected pick in 2018. If a few things break their organization’s way, maybe the 2018 Brewers experience a surprising early start to their competitive window like the 2015 Cubs did. The Cubs will likely loom large in the NL Central for years to come, but with the St. Louis core aging and the Pittsburgh Pirates front office capable of blowing their trajectory up at any moment, the Brewers may be the future challenger to the Cubs in the division. By that time, Matt Garza should have pitched his way out of there.
