Los Angeles Dodgers 2016–17 Offseason Review
The Dodgers came closer to a World Series Championship than almost any other team last season. Their offseason focused on keeping the gang together.
The Los Angeles Dodgers have won four straight NL West Titles, but they have come up empty in the postseason year after year. The San Francisco Giants have won two World Series Championships in that time. Los Angeles is dead set on changing that in the coming season. Whether it be running into the early 2010's Cardinals too many times or falling just short against the powerhouse 2016 Cubs, the Dodgers have run into some of the best teams in the postseason. That’s somewhat natural, of course, but they are hoping this season they become the powerhouse that other teams begrudgingly run into.
In order for the Dodgers to have a successful season, they pretty much have to win the World Series. The playoff failures of the recent past are fresh in the minds of fans, and the expectations for this year’s team are rightfully inflated. Fangraphs projects the Dodgers to have the second best record in all of baseball, going 96–66 on the season.
This favorable projection was heavily based on the Dodgers ability to bring back key players from their deep run just a year ago. Other additions made to the roster, along with an impressive group of young talent in the minors, have pushed them even further into the favor of projection systems. The major theme for the Dodgers in 2017 is execution and making the postseason count. If they can stave off the pressure of being one of the best teams in the league all season long, their nearly 30 year drought could come to an end.
Los Angeles’ 2016 Story
The Dodgers 2016 regular season can be summed up in one word: injuries. One of the main storylines of the season, outside of the Dodgers chasing the Giants down in the division, was the team approaching the record for most trips to the disabled list in one season. As it turns out, the Dodgers both chased down the Giants and set the record for injuries.
A good portion of the Dodgers injuries were to players that had little to no major impact on the outcome of the season. However, they saw their most valuable player miss over two months of playing time. When Clayton Kershaw went down to injury, the Dodgers were still trailing the even-year Giants in the division. All hope looked lost. That’s when the Dodgers got hot and never cooled down.
With offensive booms from Justin Turner, Corey Seager, and Yasmani Grandal leading the way, Los Angeles was able to climb the standings and complete the journey toward a fourth straight division title.
Their initial postseason matchup was with a team in a similar position with plenty of playoff appearances but nothing to show for it. Despite having some of his best postseason starts, Kershaw struggled to evade the narrative surrounding his failures in such situations. When he entered in the ninth inning of Game 5, a lot of that narrative changed. He recorded his first major league save that night.
In the NLCS, the Dodgers seemed to be in a great position after Game 4. That’s when the Cubs offense came alive. Not even the Dodgers best pitcher, Clayton Kershaw, was able to stave them off during Game 6. In addition, they were forced to face the version of Kyle Hendricks that refused to allow runs. It was a disappointing way for the season to end, but they could at least find some respite in the fact that the Cubs went on to win their first World Series Championship in over 100 years. It was their year of destiny.
However, that didn’t change the fact that the Dodgers desperately need to win a World Series while they employ the best pitcher in baseball. The majority of their offseason was focused almost entirely on that very thing.
The Offseason
Three key free agents were set to depart Los Angeles following the 2016 season. They were Kenley Jansen, Justin Turner, and Rich Hill. With the penalties of the luxury tax and the pressure of the league to lower debt within the organization pressing down on them, it looked like the Dodgers would have to choose only one or two of those key players. Instead, they were able to ignore the pressure and sign all three.
They did see Josh Reddick, who was acquired midseason and didn’t impress, leave for the Houston Astros. However, that didn’t significantly impact their plans going forward. With an already jam-packed outfield, they were satisfied with both seeing Reddick leave to free agency and trading Howie Kendrick away.
Although bringing back one of the best closers in the game, an above-average third baseman, and a top of the rotation starter were all important to the Dodgers future success, none of those three signings were the most important move the team made this offseason. Following the free agent signings, the Dodgers had one remaining hole in their roster. That hole was that they needed a right-handed, leadoff-hitting, second baseman all rolled into one.
After relentlessly pursuing Brian Dozier, who exploded in 2016 for a .268/.340/.546 season with a career-high 42 dingers, the Dodgers had to settle for Logan Forsythe in order to keep some of their more highly revered prospects. However, Forsythe’s 2016 line of .264/.333/.444 wasn’t all that far off from Dozier’s. In Forsythe, they got a right-handed second baseman to appear at the top of their lineup without giving up a whole lot of prospect talent.
They did give up José De León, of course, who was always rumored to be involved in their quest for a second baseman. De León projects to be a middle of the rotation starter, but the Dodgers appear happy with other arms in the system like Julio Urías and Yadier Alvarez going forward. As I mentioned in an article soon after the trade, it was a win-win for both sides.
The Dodgers were already in a good place to contend for the 2017 season before they made a single move. When they were able to sign back all three of their key departing free agents, their chances began to look even better. By filling in the final hole in their roster at second base, the Dodgers capped an already impressive offseason.
What Wasn’t Answered?
As far as completing a roster that already held a ton of top talent goes, the Dodgers did a pretty great job during this past offseason. They kept their closer, third baseman, and a top-to-middle of the rotation pitcher. They also traded for a solid, new second-baseman that can provide the spark needed at the top of their lineup. However, no team is perfect. The Dodgers certainly are not there yet.
The one remaining place where the Dodgers have questions is in the outfield. Joc Pederson is going to start in center field, but who knows if Los Angeles is ready to start him against left-handed pitching. The rest of the outfield is even more confusing. Yasiel Puig had a tumultuous 2016 season that resulted in time spent in Triple-A. And yet, he managed to put together an above average season with a 102 wRC+.
Trayce Thompson, Andre Ethier, Andrew Toles, and even Cody Bellinger or Brett Eibner all have a legitimate case to be an Opening Day starter in either right or left field. Thompson was impressive in his Dodger debut, but he missed a good portion of the season with back injuries. Dodgers fans know well that back injuries are not so easily left behind. Never mind the fact that there’s no certainty that Thompson will be able to hit the ball as well as he was before heading to the disabled list. In 224 plate appearances from April to June, he hit .239/.317/.463 with a 112 wRC+. If he were to continue to do that, the job in left field would easily be his so long as he stays healthy.
While this area was one that “wasn’t answered” in the offseason, it was one that was always going to be answered from within the organization. Because of the uncertainty in the outfield, it might take the Dodgers some time to get off the ground. However, they do have the talent to fill the holes that remain. Time will only tell whether they are able to effectively navigate the mystery currently residing in their outfield.
The 2017 Outlook
The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the best lineups in all of baseball. Perhaps only the Cubs rival them in the National League. Not only do they have a lethal lineup that has been improved on from a season ago, but they also have the best pitcher in baseball.
As was the case in 2016, injuries will be key. They have the depth to fight through pitching injuries, but it’s hard to imagine a world where they once again persevere through Kershaw missing significant playing time. Rich Hill, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Brandon McCarthy are all wild cards because of their injury risk. Scott Kazmir’s velocity in Spring Training has been troubling. Urías is unlikely to start the season in the Dodgers rotation. Kenta Maeda is probably the most trustworthy pitcher after Kershaw, and even he had a troubling finish to the 2016 season.
If the pitching can turn out the best possible outcome, the Dodgers can win 100 games. If Kershaw stays healthy while the rest of the rotation is in flux, the Dodgers are still likely to win the NL West. The point here is that the Dodgers are still good, even with their extreme injury risk. They have deep pools of talent that they can draw from when the need arises, and they are the team most likely to benefit from the new 10-day disabled list.
There’s good reason for the Dodgers being so highly regarded among fans, analysts, and projection systems alike. They’re good baseball players, Bront. They’re probably on their way to a fifth straight NL West title. They might just win the whole shebang this year.
