Milwaukee Brewers 2016–17 Offseason Review
To truly tell the story of the 2016 Milwaukee Brewers, we must first venture back to September 2015.
As the Brewers limped to the finish line to wrap up a 68–94 (.420) 2015 season, the team announced 30-year-old David Stearns would replace Doug Melvin as general manager.
Stearns made his impact felt immediately over the winter of 2015, firing five coaches and making a total of eight trades, moving players such as Jean Segura, Adam Lind, and Khris Davis to signify the start of a much needed rebuild in Milwaukee.
Milwaukee’s 2016 Story
The first full year of a rebuild is always the hardest.
Heading into the season, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Braun, Aaron Hill, and others were each essentially being shopped around all offseason, and that didn’t change entering April. Opening Day was ominous for the Brewers, as the San Francisco Giants hammered them around to the tune of 12–3.
After splitting their first ten games, the bottom fell out for the Brewers. They would go on to lose ten of their next 13 games to head into May at 8–15. Milwaukee’s poor play mixed with the dominance of the Chicago Cubs had the Brewers already sitting 8.5 games back in the NL Central heading into the second month. It would only get worse from there.
By the time July rolled around, the Brewers were sitting at 35–44 and a full 16 games behind the Cubs, confirming that Milwaukee would be sellers at the July 31 trade deadline. It was just a matter of time.
On July 7, the first move came. The Brewers sent Hill (.283/.359/.421 in 78 games with the Brewers) to the Boston Red Sox for minor league infielder Wendell Rojo and minor league pitcher Aaron Wilkerson.
As the deadline came to fruition, it was clear Lucroy was going to be on the move. A rumored deal to the Cleveland Indians fell threw when the catcher had the Indians on his no-trade list, so Milwaukee sent Lucroy and pitcher Jeremy Jeffress to the Texas Rangers for minor league outfielder Lewis Brinson and minor league pitcher Luis Ortiz, both of whom were regarded as top five prospects in Texas’ system.
The Brewers weren’t done selling, though, as they also sent relief pitcher Will Smith for the Giants for catcher Andrew Susac and minor league pitcher Phil Bickford.
After making the moves at the deadline, the Brewers went 26–33 over the last two months of the season to finish at 73–89 (.451). Generally, the goal for the first year of a rebuild is to not lose 100 games, and the Brewers certainly accomplished that. However, the losses of Lucroy and Hill really hurt the Brewers offensively. They finished 11th in the National League in runs scored and 14th in hits. Braun’s reemergence — .305/.365/.538, 30 home runs in 135 games — as a high-quality hitter was a very welcome addition for Milwaukee, as was Jonathan Villar — .285/.369/.457, 62 stolen bases — and NL home run leader Chris Carter.
Milwaukee’s pitching, however, left a lot to be desired. Junior Guerra led the staff with a 2.81 ERA, but his FIP was nearly a full run higher at 3.70. Jimmy Nelson led the staff with 140 strikeouts, but also surrendered 86 walks in 179.1 innings, for a BB/9 of 4.3 — third-to-last in MLB.
The Offseason
One would think, reading that recap of the 2016 season, the Brewers would be focused on trying to improve their starting rotation over the offseason, right? They didn’t. In fact, the Brewers didn’t do much of anything, which isn’t the worst idea when you’re in a rebuild. It’s important to build through the draft instead of spending big on free agents.
Milwaukee made a couple small signings such as Eric Thames, Eric Sogard, and Tommy Millone, but its biggest offseason move came on December 6 when the Brewers sent reliever Tyler Thornburg to the Red Sox for third baseman Travis Shaw and a pair of minor leagues. Shaw projects to be Milwaukee’s starting third baseman this season.
The Brewers also signed former Texas Rangers closer Neftali Feliz to a one-year deal worth $5 million. Feliz isn’t the pitcher he was on the Rangers, but he had a respectable 61 strikeouts in 53.2 innings with Pittsburgh last season.
Aside from those moves, the Brewers seem poised to stand pat for one more year while their strong minor league system continues to develop.
What Wasn’t Answered?
Is Guerra, Milwaukee’s scheduled opening day starter, really the best pitcher the Brewers have? If so, that’s a huge issue. Of course, Milwaukee has some starting pitching talent in the minor leagues, but aside from a couple outliers, all of those pitchers are still a couple years away from making the majors.
2017 Outlook
This is where things get interesting. The idea for a rebuild is to win at least five more games than the year before. That would put the goal for the Brewers at 78 victories for the 2017 season. If Milwaukee could get luck to go their way, they have an outside chance of being a .500 team this season.
However, it’s important to keep the expectations under control. The Brewers will likely head into the trade deadline as sellers again, looking to perhaps move Braun to have a spot for Brinson, their top prospect. Brinson made it all the way up to Triple-A last season and hit .382/.387/.618 in 23 games.
Josh Hader is another prospect to watch for the Brewers this season. Milwaukee is desperately seeking rotation help, and the 22-year-old left-hander is the organization’s top pitching prospect. In 25 games between Double and Triple-A last season, Hader recorded 161 strikeouts in 126 innings.
The Brewers could very well be the third place team in the NL Central this season, finishing higher than the Cincinnati Reds and one of the St. Louis Cardinals or Pittsburgh Pirates if all goes well. As the old adage goes, the Brewers are a year away from being a year away from being serious contenders, but Milwaukee is certainly on the rise.
