Philadelphia Phillies 2016–17 Offseason Review
The Phillies look poised to make a run for a Wild Card spot; but we all know there are only three guarantees in life: Death, Taxes, and Phanatic Antics
The NL East is no cakewalk. There are several terrible beasts to face on any team’s route to the playoffs. There’s Bryce Harper along with a one-two punch of Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg. There’s the super rotation of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob DeGrom, and Matt Harvey. Freddie Freeman and Julio Teherán are being supported by a young Dansby Swanson. And Miami has an outstanding outfield led by Giancarlo Stanton.
It’s no easy path, especially for the Phillies who seem to have lived in limbo for the past five years. But there is finally light at the end of the tunnel. Philadelphia has been building a strong farm system by trading many players from the 2008 championship season and drafting players through both the Rule 4 and Rule 5 drafts.
Throughout the years, the Phils have also made some key signings that have built a foundation for the clubhouse and not just acted as placeholders. Now with several holes filled for years to come and young prospects ready to come up top, Philadelphia may be on the verge of something special.
Philadelphia’s 2016 Story
The Phillies finished in fourth place in the NL East last year and were only able to put together a 71–91 season. But something was different this time around.
First of all, the Phillies actually competed for the division early on. Through the first month of the season, the Phils put in a 14–10 record. Nothing earth-shattering but certainly a step above the Phillies we’d come to know over the past couple years. There was a point in time when Philadelphia was a half game behind Washington in the standings for first place when Philly had a 24–17 record.
That was the highest point of the season for Philadelphia:Mid-May, less than one game out of first place in the NL East, and the franchise looking like it had finally turned the corner.
The rest of the way, Philly went 47–74 but they never lost hope. That was evidenced by Philadelphia refusing to move Jeremy Hellickson at the deadline. Hellickson had what was arguably his best season to date. Hellickson’s FIP was the best he had in a full season of work at 3.98 — nothing spectacular but a win for Hellickson. His 1.15 WHIP was tied for best with his rookie season campaign; his WHIP was helped significantly in July, leading up to the Deadline, when he threw a 0.96 WHIP during that month.
Adding to Hellickson’s worth, he struck out a career-high 154 batters and had a K/9 of 7.3. Hellickson may not have been the ace Philadelphia needed but he filled in better than most could have hoped as the pups — Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff, Vince Velasquez — began to adjust to the major leagues.
Speaking of the pups, all three broke through the 100 innings mark for the first time in each of their careers in 2016. Each had varied results but the trio of youthful pitchers could prove to be a three-headed monster in the near future.
Eickhoff had the most successful season of the group, posting a 1.16 WHIP, but he also allowed 30 homers and was the only one of the three to post a negative ERA-FIP differential (E-F) at -0.54.
Nola only played in 20 games as he was shut down after a right elbow strain. If he’d gotten in another five to ten games in, Nola may have been the most successful of the Phillies young pitchers. While he suffered a June WHIP of 2.58, Nola was experiencing a ridiculously unlucky time in his career. In June his BABIP was an unbelievable .528. In July, before being shut down, Nola’s BABIP was still way above league average at .362. Those two months come out to a .445 BABIP.
If Nola had better luck, his 1.31 WHIP would have been lowered. And Nola didn’t reach qualifying inning limits, but his FIP would have been top five at 3.08, ranking just behind Noah Syndergaard, Johnny Cueto, and the late José Fernández. That FIP put his E-F at a fantastic 1.70.
And finally, Velasquez was the talk of the town early in the season. On April 14, Velasquez pitched a three-hit shutout, striking out 16 batters along the way. Those 16 strikeouts played a role in Velasquez striking out a total of 152 batters in 2016. Eickoff struck out more batters in 2016 (167) but it was Velasquez who proved himself to be the flamethrower in the rotation striking out 27.6 percent of batters faced and posting a 10.44 K/9.
As a team, the Phillies hit .240/.301/.384. All three categories ranked 14th among NL teams. Despite the under-performing offense, the Phillies completed their young nucleus.
In years past, it had been Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco coming into their own. Herrera continued to capitalize on his opportunity with the Phillies after being selected in the Rule 5 draft in December 2014 as he put together .286/.361./.420 season at the plate. Herrera also hit 15 homers and stole 25 bases, while earning his first career All-Star nod. Franco on the other hand, continued to develop his power, hitting 25 homers while and putting together a .255/.306/.427 slash.
César Hernández came into his own after years of struggling at the plate. Hernández has shown his versatility in the infield but seems to have settled in at second base. His .294/.371/.393 slash with 17 homers and 11 triples could be a prelude to Hernández turning into one of MLB’s best second basemen.
Ryan Howard played in 112 games in 2016 but was finally supplanted at first base by Tommy Joseph. The 25-year-old can use work at the plate still, batting .257 and owning just a .308 OBP but his 21 homers and 113 wRC+ show promise for the Phillies with him in the clean-up position.
Even Freddy Galvis gave the Phillies pause for thought as they prepare for the arrival of J.P. Crawford this upcoming season. Galvis had a less than stellar year at the plate, with a .241/.274/.399 slash, but when he was on, boy was he on. Galvis hit 26 doubles and another 20 deep bombs. If he can develop at the plate, the Phillies may find a use for him in the outfield or he could make a great trade piece in the future.
The Phillies struggled with their bullpen, opting to Jeanmar Gómez as their closer. Gómez struggled on paper, with a 1.47 WHIP and giving up six home runs. But his 37 saves are tough to argue with, even with his not so great numbers.
The Offseason
It’s one thing to obtain that elusive young nucleus. The Phillies have been able to put one together with Herrera, Franco, Hernández, Joseph, Nola, Eickhoff, and Velasquez already up top and J.P. Crawford and Jorge Alfaro nearly ready for the big league as well. But to be successful with a young nucleus, a team must make key signings.
We saw the Cubs do it with Jon Lester two years ago. The Phillies didn’t make a big splash but may have made enough moves that they could be ready to threaten for a Wild Card spot in 2017.
The Phillies made quick work to re-sign Jeremy Hellickson to a one-year deal worth $17.2 million. The Phillies recognized Hellickson was one of their best players in 2016 and rather than see him walk they chose to sign him to a “prove it” deal. The contract was worth a lot of cash but gives Philadelphia a lot of leverage; if Hellickson repeats his 2016 performance, his value will never be higher and he can be shipped out at the deadline or Philadelphia can sign the soon-to-be 30-year-old to a lengthier contract; if he fails in his repeat effort, Philadelphia can cut ties easily after this season.
Early on, the Phillies made two big trades. First, a deal that sent Darin Ruf and Darnell Sweeny to the Los Angeles Dodgers for Howie Kendrick. The 33-year-old Kendrick has primarily played second base in his career but last year the Dodgers used him all over the field, at first, second, third, and in left field. The Phillies will bank on Kendrick’s 2016 slump (.255/.326/.366) was a fluke as he gets the starting nod in left field.
The second deal saw Philadelphia trade for Clay Bucholz from the Boston Red Sox, shipping out minor league middle-infielder Josh Tobias away for the lifelong Red Sox pitcher. Bucholz filled a variety of roles for Boston last season, appearing in 37 games while only starting 21 of those games. His E-F of -0.28 is hardly worrisome and his 1.33 WHIP suggests the righty still has some more years of use in the middle of rotation left.
In January, Philadelphia made their one key signing in Michael Saunders. The former Toronto Blue Jays outfielder struggled to find a long term deal he liked and so he settled for a one-year-deal worth $9 million. Saunders was an All-Star last season for the first time in his career, batting .253/.338/.478 and banging 24 homers for the Jays. If Saunders can replicate his season at all, expect the Phillies to offer him a long-term contract in hopes of keeping Saunders along the way as they hope to continue to improve and make a run at the World Series in coming years.
What Wasn’t Answered?
Philadelphia didn’t need too many holes filled this offseason. The team is based around home-grown talent, as touched on earlier. At this point, it’s up to the young talent to perform to fill any holes that may be on the roster.
The few holes (outfield and starting pitching) were addressed throughout the Winter and Philly now has a roster that looks ready to compete for a spot in the playoffs.
But one area of worry is the bullpen. The Pen will be headlined by Gómez who, as discussed earlier, didn’t put in the most stellar of seasons on paper in 2016. Behind Gómez is Héctor Neris (1.11 WHIP, two saves in 80.1 innings), Pat Neshek (0.94 WHIP in 47 innings), Joaquín Benoit (1.27 WHIP, one save in 48 innings), and Edubray Ramos (1.18 WHIP in 40 innings).
As a group, the five should carry a majority of the load while Luis García, Joely Rodriguez, and Adam Morgan fill in when needed. But simply adding Benoit (no disrespect, he’s had a fantastic 15 year career) is not enough for the Phillies’ bullpen. Especially when there were multiple elite relievers on the market.
Philadelphia’s 2017 payroll ranks in the bottom-third of MLB at #21 with just shy of $103 million committed to their roster. It’s easy to see that the Phillies are biding their time, holding on to money for future free agent classes (2018 anybody?). But this past offseason was the perfect time to splurge on a closer. The class featured what many would argue to be the three top closers in the game in Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon.
Other notable relievers on the market included Greg Holland, Brad Ziegler, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Joe Blanton, and Brett Cecil. But the Phillies chose to stand pat instead. Either Philadelphia whiffed largely on close to 10 different options or they have immense confidence in Jeanmar Gómez to get those numbers to go way down.
The 2017 Outlook
Opportunity is the name of the game for Philadelphia. They live in an NL East that has been falling short of expectations the past few years. Despite perennial contenders in the New York Mets and Washington Nationals, the NL East hasn’t been able to capitalize and bring home a World Series Championship yet. Both teams look like their windows are closing as stars from both team prepare for their first chance at a big pay day elsewhere.
The Miami Marlins have fallen on hard times; life, unfortunately, moves on. If Miami is unable to adjust to life after the tragedy that was José Fernández’s death, they’ll fall.
The Atlanta Braves are the Atlanta Braves. There really shouldn’t be any need for more of an explanation.
The Phillies are in an interesting predicament that, depending on how their young players perform, could push them into the playoffs. It’s unlikely that Philadelphia wins the division this year, but they could earn a Wild Card spot.
All three of their young pitchers should take another step forward as Philadelphia hopes to, once again, create a super rotation — much like 2008. Both Maikel Franco and Tommy Joseph will be depended on to improve at the plate. If both can improve their batting average by 20 points while providing the same type of power, Philadelphia will have one of the best power hitting tandem in the league for years to come.
The true test will be the call ups of J.P. Crawford and Jorge Alfaro. Crawford struggled in Triple-A but it is entirely possible that Philadelphia chooses the “birth by fire” route for Crawford and force him to figure it out at the major league level.
Alfaro had six games late last season where he showed off his stuff to Pete Mackanin and Co. Two hits in 16 at bats isn’t ideal but Alfaro is more touted for his defense; he has a laser for an arm with a 70 grade.
The Philadelphia Phillies are nowhere ready to take the NL East crown. But they’re getting close. This is the year that they will need to turn the corner. The NL East is vulnerable. If the young Phillies capitalize, the Philadelphia motto will ring true once again: Trust the Process.
