Removing The Strikeout Stigma
Why whiffs are viewed differently today than in the past
Tony Gwynn is the greatest pure hitter I have ever witnessed. While others hit (and will continue to hit) for more power, no other hitter in my lifetime has been better at using his bat to get on base.
One of the 30 members of the 3,000 hit club, Gwynn is best known for having a career .338 average (18th highest in MLB history), eight batting titles (second most all-time), and playing every game of his career for the same team, the San Diego Padres. Oh, and for being an incredibly, incredibly likeable guy (unless you were Greg Maddux)
But for many die hard Tony Gwynn fans, he’s also known for something else: being hard to strike out. Like, really hard.
“I hated striking out. I’d rather ground back to the pitcher. I always thought that they put the bat in your hand for a reason: to make contact with the ball.”
— Tony Gwynn
Gwynn passed away in 2014, and it is more than likely that we will never see another hitter more averse to whiffs in the major leagues ever again.
A quick look at the league leaders in strikeouts per at-bats per year shows that the rates are trending downward. Gwynn’s last year on the list is in 1998, and since then, the league leader has only gotten above 20 once (though Gwynn’s numbers the three years following are 29.4, 31.8, and 11.3, he didn’t have the requisite number of at-bats to qualify).
We may not see a hitter of Gwynn’s caliber and skill-set ever again, for a multitude of reasons. Yes, he was an early proponent of video usage in swing analysis, had incredible eyesight, quick wrists, and dedicated thousands of hours to honing his craft.
But those aren’t the only reasons why we may never see another player avoid strikeouts at a similar rate.
Approach
Gwynn swung a shorter, lighter bat than most MLB players (32.5 inches, 31 ounces for most of his career). Doing so allowed him to fight off pitches as they reached deeper into the strike zone. By being content to flick line drives and grounders between the shortstop and third baseman (dubbed the “5.5 hole”), the left hander was able to find pitches he could reach and racked up the hits.
Of his 3,141 hits, 2,379 were singles. When 75.7% of your hits move you 270 feet away from home, you’re able to stay valuable when you accumulate them at a high volume. It wasn’t until later in his career, after talking shop with native San Diegan (and pretty good hitter himself) Ted Williams, that Gwynn began to pull the ball more and hit for power. Despite a late-career semi-power surge, he only had four seasons in his 20 year career when he slugged above .500 (’87, ’94, ’97, and ‘98).
In 2016, José Altuve is having a pretty Gwynn-like season, leading the league in batting average and owning a top five K/AB rate to pair with tons of doubles and stolen bases. But Mr. Padre doesn’t come close to Altuve’s home run production, never knocking out more than 17 in a season. By keeping his approach simple and focusing on getting on base as much as possible (instead of trying to crush dingers), Gwynn was able to make contact at a higher rate than his peers, and avoid making the trip back to the bench empty handed.
Current Hitting Philosophy
In the Gwynn quote above, he makes a statement that probably wouldn’t have the same traction in today’s game, at least with the current values system of modern analytics. While making weak contact back to the pitcher may feel better to a hitter than striking out, the fact is that either way, outs are being made and value is being lost at an equal rate. While there’s always the chance of a fielding error, there are also possibilities for grounding into double plays (Gwynn led the league in GIDP in 1994, the same year he had a .394 batting average).
On Base Percentage (OBP) has never held more weight with talent evaluators than it has now, and appears to have at least equal footing with batting average. If the pitcher doesn’t give you a good pitch to drive, forcing a walk is now seen less as a pitcher’s mistake and more as a skill the hitter possesses. Current Padres second baseman Ryan Schimpf is a prime example of a player who would be seen as having little value when judged by batting average. A deeper look at his production shows a more robust offensive contribution.
Considering last year’s MVP performance from Bryce Harper, his batting average this season is almost shockingly low. However, by walking at a high rate (17.7 percent ), he is still able to get on base and add value to the Washington Nationals’ lineup. Jean Segura is having a career year, ranking sixth in the National League in batting average while providing 4.0 oWAR for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Schimpf has been able to get on base at the same rate as Segura, despite the 73 point difference in average, because his walk rate is close to triple that of Segura’s.
Gwynn’s 7.7 percent career walk rate seems paltry compared to Harper’s and Schimpf’s for the season (though, admittedly, Schimpf’s is a much smaller sample size than Harper’s and Segura’s), and was even below the league average for his time (8.8 percent). With a bat in his hand, he wanted to hit the ball. However, in lieu of a player of Gwynn’s prowess, a hitter who can work a pitch count and draw walks could be seen as equally valuable. Even if current strikeout rates are higher than in previous years, as the saying goes, “a walk is as good as a hit.”
Modern Pitching
Yes, it feels a bit strange to say that Gwynn didn’t play in a “modern” game. It’s all relative, of course, as the game from the 80’s and 90’s is drastically different from the 60’s and 70’s, etc. But the abilities of pitchers and the use of the bullpen today is very different from Gwynn’s heyday.
Last year, six pitchers led the majors in complete games, with four apiece. In Gwynn’s first five seasons (’82 to ‘86), the MLB leaders in complete games had 19, 21, 17, 24, and 20, respectively. After a batter has seen a starting pitcher a few times in the game, their probability of getting on base rises, which has led to earlier and more frequent bullpen use. Since this was less prevalent a few decades ago, it would theoretically be more difficult for Gwynn to get on base now then it was then (though I’m sure he’d still make it happen).
Not only is bullpen use up, but those relievers (and some starters) are lighting up the radar guns in ways that weren’t seen even in the mid-2000’s (after Gwynn had retired). A FanGraphs piece from 2013 shows an upward trend of the percentage of pitchers throwing 100 MPH, going from less than 2% in 2008 to almost 14% in 2013. Pitchers are throwing in shorter bursts, allowing them to maximize velocity and limit familiarity, and in so doing, have an increased number of strikeouts. It isn’t unreasonable to expect that if Gwynn was facing today’s brand of fireballers, he would’ve swung a little late on a couple of them and struck out a few more times.
While there is certainly a lack of depth (especially due to injury) in the current game, the simple fact is that the sheer volume of pitchers and skill-set they possess slants favors towards the mound and away from the batter’s box.
Can we simply dismiss Gwynn’s hit tool as a product of a time that isn’t applicable in 2016? Certainly not. There should be little doubt that he would be successful at baseball regardless of the era. He is an all-time great.
To demonstrate his greatness, here are a few quick fun facts regarding Gwynn, strikeouts, and a few current players.
- From ’92 to ’96, Gwynn had a 3.2 percent K rate, a result of 86 strikeouts in 2,653 plate appearances. As of August 30, there were 117 MLB hitters who struck out more this season than that half decade stretch for Gwynn.
- Gwynn had 434 career strikeouts in 2,440 games played (over the span of 20 seasons). Mike Trout (450 games) and Bryce Harper (491 games) matched that total in their fourth season in the majors.
- During Jackie Bradley Jr.’s 29-game hit streak this year, he struck out 20 times. From ’91 to ’99, Gwynn made the All-Star team every year, played no fewer than 110 games, and struck out fewer than 20 times in eight out of the nine seasons.
- Against the Hall of Fame trio of Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine, and John Smoltz, Gwynn had 287 plate appearances, had a .381 batting average, and struck out three times (1.045 percent K rate).
- Gwynn struck out three times in a game just once (against Bob Welch in 1986). Kris Bryant, who is having himself an MVP-caliber season, has 12 games with three strikeouts in 2016.
To believe that a similarly skilled hitter is to be found in the minors (there are none currently in the majors) seems like a fool’s errand. The importance placed on drawing walks and looking for pitches to drive, combined with the superior bullpen pieces of today’s game are just a few reasons why it seems like the strikeouts will continue to pile up. The days of a hitter with a higher than 20 AB/K rate (let alone the career high 35.7 AB/K rate Gwynn had in 1995) seem to be a thing of the past, and major league hitters seem to be at peace with it.
But for those who appreciate otherworldly contact ability, here’s hoping that you’re in your late 20s (or older). Chances are, you may have a memory or two of Tony Gwynn stepping into the batter’s box, which is a thing to be treasured.
I’m guessing that memory doesn’t end with him striking out.
