Saving A Vote for Trevor HOFfman
A look at how Cooperstown-worthy the second all-time leader in saves really is.
I’ll point out my bias right off the bat. I grew up and am still a die-hard follower of the San Diego Padres. The highlight of my Padres fandom was as a 12-year-old, when the Padres visited Chavez Ravine in the final series of the 1996 season and swept the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the division.
While many will remember the late-inning heroics by Ken Caminiti (10th inning go-ahead RBI double in Game 1), stellar pitching by Bob Tewksbury (seven shutout innings in Game 3), and a clutch pinch-hit double by Chris Gwynn (to put the Padres ahead in the 11th inning of Game 3), there was one constant to each win: a Trevor Hoffman shut-down save.
In those three games, he pitched three innings, allowing just an Eric Karros double in Game 2, along with two walks against four strikeouts.
Aside from Tony Gwynn, the Padres haven’t had much to celebrate in terms of… well, anything. They are still without a World Series trophy (just five playoff appearances in 48 years), have the blandest uniforms in pro sports, and their front office miscues sometimes overshadow the weak play on the field. But in my head, I always thought that we had Tony and Trevor, two guys that were surefire locks for the Hall of Fame and would represent San Diego as heroes in Cooperstown.
Gwynn, of course, would be a first ballot Hall of Famer in 2007, his 97.61 percent share of the votes placing him eighth highest all-time among inductees.
Hoffman is currently in his second year on the ballot, after getting 67.3 percent last year. After a fun Winter Meetings, the hot stove is now as cold as my bathroom floor (I’ve since moved to Texas, which has colder winters than San Diego), so much of the baseball talk has been about the Hall of Fame. With a crowded ballot, Hoffman may not be the lock that this Padre fan figured him to be, so I’m attempting to remove my brown-tinted glasses (brown is after all, the true color of the Padres) and determine how valid Hoffy’s Hall of Fame case really is by looking into the arguments against him.
Critique № 1: Relievers shouldn’t be in the Hall of Fame
This is one of the most common critiques I have come across. “How can you say he’s more valuable than (insert the name of an average position player or starting pitcher)?” While I certainly can’t argue that in terms of WAR, there are many who have accumulated more than Hoffman (a comparatively paltry 28.0 bWAR), the idea that closers don’t belong in Cooperstown would hold more water if… there weren’t already closers in Cooperstown.
The last four closers to enter the Hall of Fame were Goose Gossage (41.8 bWAR), Bruce Sutter (24.5 bWAR), Dennis Eckersley (62.5 bWAR), and Rollie Fingers (25.0 bWAR). Regardless of their WAR, Hoffman ranks favorably to all of them (we’ll delve deeper into this in a bit). Gossage built up his value by throwing 1,809.1 innings, a whopping 720 more innings than Hoffman. Eckersley had a pair of 7.3 bWAR seasons as a starter in 1978–79. After moving to the bullpen, he had just 16.8 bWAR from 1987–97.
While the value of closers is certainly up for debate (although judging by the performance of postseason standouts like Kenley Jansen, Aroldis Chapman, and Andrew Miller, it’s certainly higher than previously thought), the fact is, they are already in the Hall of Fame, and Hoffman fits right in with them.
Critique № 2: No, seriously, the closer role is just like a pinch hitter; if they were better, they’d be starting
While it’s certainly true the majority of closers at one time starters, in the same sense that bench guys began their careers as everyday players, to prove they have similar value is difficult to do.
Unlike the aforementioned Jansen and Chapman, there are no free agent bidding wars over pinch hitters (though I’d love to see what that would look like). Finding a bench player that is as dominant as a closer is also impossible. Hoffman had an 88.8 percent save percentage, and while hitting is a whole different beast than pitching, that kind of effectiveness simply cannot be found by a hitter, bench or otherwise.
While my Padres have made some questionable moves since hiring AJ Preller to be the general manager, one of the best trades he’s made has been with the Boston Red Sox, sending over closer Craig Kimbrel in exchange for a prospect haul of Manuel Margot, Javier Guerra, Carlos Asuaje, and Logan Allen. All are currently ranked by MLB.com as top 20 prospects for the Padres, and Margot and Asuaje figure to get extensive playing time in the majors in 2017. This would seem like a lot to give up for a position without value.
Lastly, there is award voting. Hoffman received MVP votes in five separate seasons (getting as high as seventh on the ballot), and Cy Young Award votes in four separate seasons (coming in second twice). This establishes that, even when viewed through the lens of his admittedly reduced role, there were plenty of times when Hoffman was considered among the game’s elite.
Critique № 3: Saves are overrated
While it’s fun to look at the saves leader board and see Hoffman (601 career saves) miles ahead of everyone not named Mariano Rivera (652 career saves), saves are definitely overrated, perhaps on the same level as pitcher “wins”.
So, if saves are overrated, what else does Hoffman have to offer in terms of a Hall of Fame résumé?
Here’s a quick glance at the stats of the four most recent Hall of Fame relievers, as well as three who are on the current ballot (Hoffman, Lee Smith, and Billy Wagner), and Mariano Rivera, who will be Hall of Fame-eligible in 2019.
What jumps off the page here? Well, the younger crop of relievers compares pretty favorable to the older generation. Rivera is other-worldly, and though Wagner falls almost 100 innings of the 1,000 inning mark, his numbers look very impressive. Hoffman definitely holds his own, though, trailing only Wagner in K/9 and Hits/9 and behind only Rivera in Win Probability Added.
Hoffman’s numbers rank highly historically as well. For pitchers with 1,000+ innings, his Hits/9 and K’s/9 rank seventh and ninth all-time, respectively. While his WPA ranks 21st overall, the only players ahead of him are either Hall of Famers, are on the ballot, or are named Kershaw and Halladay.
Critique № 4: He’s not as good as Mariano Rivera
This is probably the hardest pill to swallow as a Padres fan, but it’s true, Mariano Rivera was a better closer than Trevor Hoffman. Still, if this keeps Hoffman off your ballot, chances are you also think that Tim Raines isn’t Cooperstown-worthy because he wasn’t as good as Rickey Henderson. The gap between Raines and Henderson exists, but isn’t large, and the gap between Hoffman and Rivera is about as razor thin as it gets.
A lot of the mystique around Rivera is his work in the postseason. Unlike Hoffman, who spent the majority of his career with a west coast team that made the playoffs just four times in his 16 years there, Rivera was part of a dynasty that missed the playoffs in just two of his 19 seasons in New York. In terms of visibility, there really was no comparison; Rivera has a huge edge.
Rivera has the edge in All-Star appearances, 13–7. Rivera led the league in saves three times, while Hoffman did it twice. In terms of save percentage, Hoffy’s 88.8 percent is just a few ticks behind Mo’s 89.1. As shown above, they have identical H/9 numbers, and Hoffman had 9.4 K/9 compared to Rivera’s 8.2. Do you give the edge to Rivera? Yes (especially factoring in his all-time leading ERA+). Is it as drastic as a die-hard Yankee fan might lead you to believe? Probably not.
During a 16-year period when Hoffman was the Padres primary closer (‘94-’09), he saved 586 games. San Diego won 1,230 games during that stretch, meaning that he saved 47.6 percent of all Padres wins in that span. Rivera’s 642 saves from ’97 to ’13 (minus 2013, when he was injured for most of the season) mean that he saved 41.4 percent of the Yankees 1,550 wins during that period. It’s certainly plausible to say the Padres depended on Hoffman more than the Yankees relied on Rivera.
One of my best Hoffman memories was on a cool summer’s night in San Diego. The Padres were hosting the New York Mets, and my dad and I had some good seats on the first base side behind some Mets fans.
Greg Maddux pitched a gem, shutting them out for five innings, but after the Padres took the lead, the Mets rallied back against Scott Linebrink to tie the game in the eighth. To my surprise, the Mets fans in front of me cheered a Padres bottom of the eighth run to put them ahead. Though I hadn’t spoken to them all night, I asked them why they were seemingly cheering for the Mets to lose.
“Hoffman,” they replied. “We came here all the way from New York, and we want the whole experience. We want Hoffman and Hells Bells.” While I probably took Trevor for granted at the time, it was very cool to hear he was appreciated by fans all over the league. And for the record, I’ll take Hells Bells (Hoffman’s entrance music) over Enter Sandman (Rivera’s entrance music) any day of the week.
Are you convinced? Still a skeptic? It’s all right, everyone’s criteria for a Hall of Fame vote is different. If there is one complaint I’ve seen among voters, it’s that the ballot is too crowded. I’d have to say if I had a vote, I’d be filling in the maximum ten, and I’d still be leaving off legitimate candidates. One way to fix this, at least in a small way, would be to get Hoffman in. After debuting at 67.3 percent last year, he falls just 7.7 percent short of induction. If he doesn’t get in this year, he’s still a pretty safe bet for the years to come.
But if you want to start clearing people out, save a place on your ballot for Trevor Hoffman.
